RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~170 Overall
CURRENT ADP: 180+ (Undrafted)
ANALYSIS: Thomas turned in a preview of the future in Week 14 of last season when he hauled in five balls on 10 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. Greg Olsen only missed two games so the glimpse was short-lived, but 2020 could be huge for the 6’3” TE. While Teddy Bridgewater’s tendencies aren’t great for Robby Anderson, Thomas had a 7.1 aDOT that is right in Teddy’s wheelhouse. Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore are the best receiving options by far, but Thomas could shine on a team whose defense allowed the second-most points last season. Did anybody mention gamescript?
Going hand-in-hand with the passing work came to Carolina running the quickest-tempo offense in the league, averaging 25.05 seconds per play. Changes at both head coach and quarterback will likely affect this, but a total 180 is unlikely and the tea leaves are promising for volume. Olsen wasn't incredible last season, but his 123.7 points in PPR scoring were still good for the TE13 slot. It is now Thomas' position and role to handle in Carolina after getting just 30 targets and 35.6 PPR points last year.
With those much-brighter expectations, Thomas projects to reach at least 100 PPR in 2020 (via PFF) to the tune of 41 receptions for 409 yards and three touchdowns. Those numbers are definitely not mindblowing, but it is not that the tight end position is easy to project. In any case, Thomas' current ADP of 180+ (undrafted in most if not all leagues) and TE38 don't make much sense as he is slotted to finish as the TE29 in 2020, which is way low to my eyes if I'm honest. Assuming he can stay healthy, play 16 games, and the rapport with Bridgewater appears soon, Thomas' upside and potential ROI is high for his peanut-cheap price. Consider him a last-round flier if you punt on the position early or plan to stream it.
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