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Buying Back In To Hunter Pence?

It's an even year, so you know what that means. The Giants are in line for another World Series.

If that's going to happen, the team is going to need quality contributions from newcomers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, repeat performances from Matt Duffy and Joe Panik, and most importantly, a resurgence from their formidable right fielder, Hunter Pence.

Let's take a deeper look into Pence's rough 2015 and what we can expect going forward.

 

2015 Year in Review

Injuries sapped Pence's 2015 from ever getting off the ground, with a broken forearm delaying his start and an oblique injury shutting him down in August. In total Pence played in 52 games (223 PA) and slashed .275/.327/.478 with 30 runs, nine homers, and 40 RBI. A rough August (.227) knocked his average down; he was hitting .298 before that point. Perhaps his oblique played into that performance, although that was never reported.

He still had a strong season in those 52 games. He showed excellent power (.203 ISO; best since 2007) while his 127 wRC+ (27% better than league average) indicates Pence would have been in line for a peak season if he stayed healthy. He continued to crush the fastball-slider combo, slugging .603 and .696 versus the pitches, respectively. He displayed solid speed (4.9 Spd) even at age 32, giving me confidence he can once again reach the 15-18 SB range.

 

2016 Fantasy Outlook

Our team ranks Hunter Pence 23rd among outfielders, which diminishes some of the value for Pence. But keep in mind the industry average for Pence is 27th among outfielders with an ADP of 97th overall. Your league mates may be sour on Pence and skeptic of him returning to his pre-2015 form. But keep in mind the ISO (.203) and wRC+ (127) he produced and try to ignore the poor 5x5 stats. There's only so much to be done in 52 games.

At age 33 Pence will enter the 2016 campaign fully healthy, although injuries become more prevalent with age. Pence showed no major signs of decline though, which gives us confidence he can produce a .280, 2o HR, 15-18 SB campaign for the Giants. That's well worth the price for admission (9th-10th round) and makes Pence an excellent OF 2/3 in fantasy. Look Pence's way come draft day.

* Stats and ADP's provided by FanGraphs, BrooksBaseball, and FantasyPros

 

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