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Los Angeles Chargers tight end Hunter Henry was easily the best rookie tight end in the NFL and in fantasy football last year, but will he be better than all of the league’s new rookies this year?
This year's crop of tight ends features some of the best high-end talent the draft has seen for many years, including O.J. Howard, David Njoku, Evan Engram, and Gerald Everett. In a dynasty startup league, is is better to start with the established second-year player or take a chance on the upside of a first-rounder?
To pose an even harder question, is it possible that any of these tight ends could outproduce Henry in a redraft league this season? Let's take a closer look at the situation.
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Hunter Henry's Fantasy Impact
Henry was the top rookie tight end by a landslide in 2016, dominating a CFL-caliber class by catching 36 passes for 478 yards and an impressive eight touchdowns, which tied him for the most at the position. While his receptions and yardage did not bowl over fantasy owners like Baltimore’s Marshal Yanda bowls over defenders when he pulls on a sweep, Henry’s nose for the end zone, coupled with his combination of soft hands and big body, make many think that the sky is the limit for him and that he could be a top-six fantasy tight end as early as 2017.
The most troublesome roadblock standing between Henry elevating his fantasy value is not an abundance of shutdown safeties in the AFC West. It is teammate and longtime fantasy standout Antonio Gates, who at the ripe old age of 36 still managed to outperform Henry last year with 53 receptions for 548 yards and seven scores. The future Hall of Famer is returning for a 15th season, and even though the tread is thinner on Gates than a tire that has logged 80,000 miles, he always has the will to catch four passes per game.
When you think that Henry was able to do as well as he did despite Gates sharing his spotlight, then the drool has to slip out of fantasy owners’ mouths when they consider what Henry can do if Gates’ role is downgraded. If Henry duplicates what he did and also adds half of the passes/yards/scores that Gates was able to produce last season, you could estimate Henry having 62 receptions for 750 yards and 11 touchdowns this upcoming season.
The Future at Tight End Starts Now
The rookie class at tight end in 2017 has the makings of being one million times better than 2016’s class was. Three tight ends were drafted in the first round as teams are trying to find their own versions of Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham. But while the class is loaded with pass-catchers that should be fantasy forces either immediately or in future years, nobody looks like they could match what Henry looks primed to put up in 2017.
Tampa Bay already had a solid up-and-coming tight end in Cameron Brate coming off a breakout season where he matched Henry for tops at the position with eight touchdown receptions of his own, so the Buccaneers drafting Alabama’s O.J. Howard in the opening round might have left a trail of head scratchers. Howard was the highest-rated tight end of this impressive rookie crop, though, and a team can never have enough weapons in the pass-happy NFL.
Even with Tampa Bay probably planning on utilizing several two-tight end sets, Brate is going to cut into Howard’s workload and numbers. So no matter how talented Howard may be, the combo of Brate and target hog Mike Evans will give Howard a fantasy ceiling likely lower of what Henry can give fantasy squads in 2017.
The New York Giants needed to upgrade the speed and playmaking ability of their tight end crew, so they wisely spent a first-round pick on Mississippi phenom Evan Engram. Engram should be able to stretch the field 1,000 times better than Will Tye and Larry Donnell have the past two seasons, but with Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall monopolizing Eli Manning’s attention, Engram is going to be hard-pressed to have more than 50 receptions and a half-dozen touchdowns.
Cleveland’s David Njoku is blessed with wide receiver-like abilities while having the big body of a tight end. That is why Cleveland drafted him in the first round and kicked former 1,000-yarder Gary Barnidge to the curb like he was a soiled mattress.
What Njoku is not blessed with, however, is a decent quarterback. If Brock Osweiler wins the starting signal caller job in Cleveland, you might as well ignore Njoku, because fantasy owners know how Osweiler reduced premier pass catcher DeAndre Hopkins to a mere fantasy also-ran in 2016. If Cody Kessler defeats Osweiler during training camp and wins the starting job, that still should not instill much confidence into Njoku owners. Cleveland’s quarterback crew is partially the reason why Barnidge went from a top fantasy tight end to unemployed in a year’s time.
As for other tight ends drafted in later rounds, second-rounder Gerald Everett is going to be hard-pressed to do much in his rookie campaign with the Los Angeles Rams, because the Rams have not done a favor for one of their receivers or tight ends since the Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger days.
Detroit’s Michael Roberts has to serve as Eric Ebron’s backup, so he cannot be expected to do much unless/until Ebron gets injured. Denver fifth-round Jake Butt has the potential to be a solid fantasy contributor once he returns, but the knee injury he suffered on New Years Day during the Orange Bowl will possibly cost him a few games this season, so he cannot be considered someone who could finish with better numbers than Henry.
Conclusion
In my mind, Henry is going to beat the rookie field in 2017 in terms of fantasy production. The Chargers started phasing out Gates last year to allow Henry to make the slow transition as top tight end on the team. While Gates needs just one touchdown to become the all-time touchdown leader for tight ends in NFL history, once he does that there is no reason to force feed him the ball anymore.
Henry has the potential to be a 10-TD tight end as soon as this year. He is nearly impossible to defend against down by the end zone, and his target total will definitely escalate this season since he will overtake Gates on the depth chart. Fantasy owners know how well Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers did getting the ball to Gates over the past decade-plus. Rivers will make sure to get the ball in Henry’s hands just as much this season – and more than any QB will get passes to their rookie tight ends when all is said and done.
