RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 136
CURRENT ADP: ~156 overall
ANALYSIS: A surface-level analysis would suggest that Hunter Brown is a great sleeper for 2024. His 5.09 ERA masked a 3.52 xFIP across his 155⅔ IP, his 26.8 K% and 8.3 BB% were solid, and his .330 BABIP, 68.8% strand rate, and 21% HR/FB appear primed for positive regression.
Brown also pitches for Houston, a team projected to win a lot of games, so an improvement on last season's 11-13 record seems likely. Unfortunately, Brown's stuff doesn't support last season's peripherals. His fastball averaged 95.7 mph, but its 2,240-RPM spin rate rendered it average by results (8.8 SwStr%, 57.1 Zone%). His slider behaved like more of a fastball than a breaking pitch with a 9.3 SwStr%, 54.8 Zone%, and 23.9% chase rate. Brown's changeup had a 14.6 SwStr% but lacked consistency with a 33.8 Zone% and 24.4% chase rate, and his curve was similar with a 15 SwStr% but 39 Zone% and 34.5% chase rate.
It's certainly possible that Brown enjoys a breakout campaign in his age-25 season, but it's just as likely his K% declines and he becomes more of an innings eater. An increase in wins is likely and a strong ground ball rate could mean some better run prevention.
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