RADIO
Now that we are in the downtime of the NFL offseason schedule, dynasty startups are happening all around us. What if I told you that instead of being subjected to the mercy of the football gods when it comes to your league's startup draft order you could have any player out there in the startup? In an auction league, all players are available if you are willing to pay the right price.
Part of what makes an auction draft so great is that it provides a unique roster construction and customization that isn't generally available in a snake draft. Unless you were willing to trade up, getting Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts on the same team simply wouldn't be possible, but in an auction draft, it is! One of the reasons Auction is growing in popularity is that it gives you complete control over your roster. Since dynasty is long-term, doesn't it make more sense to give everyone in your league that option?
In this article, we will review some dynasty auction draft strategies and how to maximize output for drafting the best possible team. Auction drafts can generally be unpredictable from draft to draft, so remaining flexible while keeping your cool is a must. Being good at auction requires a degree of mental fortitude to survive the highs and lows of the startup. Now let's dive in, shall we?
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Importance of Elite QBs in a Superflex
In a Superflex startup, nothing is more painful than being caught on the wrong end of a quarterback run. It can leave you feeling frustrated and lead to tilting (which you don't want). QBs are generally more expensive to acquire via trade after the startup, so making sure you get an elite one in the fold is never a bad strategy. How much to spend on one is the tougher question. With the 2022 rookie class not providing much in terms of starting quarterbacks it has made bargain shopping at the position much harder in 2023.
Most people would agree that the following QBs qualify as franchise cornerstones in a Superflex dynasty:
- QB1 - Patrick Mahomes (Tier 1)
- QB2 - Josh Allen (Tier 1)
- QB3 - Jalen Hurts (Tier 1)
- QB4 - Joe Burrow (Tier 2)
- QB5 - Justin Herbert (Tier 2)
- QB6 - Lamar Jackson (Tier 2)
- QB7 - Trevor Lawrence (Tier 2)
After those 7 QBs there is quite a dropoff, but the following players are still valued rather highly in dynasty formats:
- QB8 - Justin Fields (Tier 3)
- QB9 - Deshaun Watson (Tier 3)
- QB10 - Dak Prescott (Tier 3)
After that, your best options are a hobbled Kyler Murray or taking a shot on some of the 2023 rookie quarterbacks: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson. Once that wave is over your other options are Tua Tagovailoa and Daniel Jones before things start getting dicey. You shouldn't feel bad about spending 30 percent of your budget on a player like Patrick Mahomes if that's what it takes to lock down one of your QB spots for the foreseeable future.
Budgeting Tips and Knowing Your Tiers
It's never a bad idea to decide how much percent of your budget you are going to allocate to each position group. In a recent dynasty startup that was completed, here is how the budget looked like heading into the draft:
Quarterbacks - 45%
Running Backs - 17%
Wide Receivers - 30%
Tight Ends - 8%
By doing this ahead of time it can serve as an important compass to keep you on track during the startup. Unless some absurd tight end values present themselves during the auction, we are going to stay the course and just take 4 or 5 dart throws on some tight ends with upside later in the draft. Players like Greg Dulcich, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Jelani Woods, or Isaiah Likely. We are also set up not to panic if the bids on quarterbacks start getting expensive as well since we have already decided ahead of time that we were going to lock down an elite signal caller or two.
Creating personalized rankings for each position and categorizing them into tiers is another crucial strategy to adopt. This can be done by considering various factors like player age, projected performance for the upcoming season, organizational/head coach stability, estimated performance over the next three seasons, or a mix of them. The crux of this idea is to identify players who may significantly outperform their peers within the same position group and make them the backbone of your team.
A common pitfall for dynasty managers is being overly concerned about what their starting lineup looks like when we are still months away from the start of the season. Always draft for value. Much like a real-life NFL GM, you can always trade for need later. By sticking to the values you have set for each player, you will be better prepared than most of your league mates during the auction.
Knowing your League Settings
Is your league a managed one or best ball? How many wide receivers and flexes does it start? The long answer to this is that the bigger the starting lineup the more you will need to prioritize depth over just grabbing a handful of stars. Knowing your league's settings will help you prioritize how much you should spend on stars versus on depth.
Stars-and-scrubs has been a popular approach to auctions. It involves loading up your starting lineup with several stud players who will generally outperform the rest. It is easiest to do this in a managed league with a smaller starting lineup: something to the tune of 1 -QB, 2 - RB, 2 - WR, 1 - TE, 1 - Flex, and 1 - Superflex. The less number of players you are required to start the more you can focus on acquiring stud players. The more numbers of players you need to make a lineup of each week means depth will be more important that it is in most leagues.
If your league half PPR or full PPR? Is there a bonus for Tight End receptions? If you are in a league that is full PPR and starts 3+ wide receivers then you might have an easier time pulling off a Zero-RB Strategy during the auction. If you are in a league that doesn't prioritize starting as many WRs and isn't full PPR, you will need to place a higher emphasis on getting a solid running back room.
Running Backs tend to depreciate the fastest of any position in a dynasty league, so the optimal strategy is to make sure you are ready to compete right away if you spend premium draft capital in a startup on a running back. One of the biggest mistakes that people make in dynasty leagues is wasting a running back's high-end productive years while the rest of their roster isn't yet ready to compete. The best way to view running backs in a dynasty league is like buying a brand-new car. You will enjoy the thrill of driving that new car, but you lose anywhere from 7-10 percent of its value the moment you drive it off the lot.
Track Your League Mates' Budget
Knowing what your league mates are spending in the startup as well as how they are constructing their roster is also important. If you haven't yet won a bid for a running back and twenty of them are off the board and you see that 3 league mates don't even have a running back yet, then know that you might find yourself in the middle of a bidding war soon and could be in trouble.
Is someone in your league saving their money and not spending much at all? If so that person could pose a real problem for you near the end of the draft if you are waiting on a player. There is nothing more frustrating than waiting to nominate one of your favorite sleepers at the end and seeing another league mate with a big wad of auction dollars left who decides to bid them up. While the general strategy is to nominate players you don't want early, you don't always want to wait until the very end either if there are league mates with a lot of auction dollars left.
Nominate Strategically
Nominating players that you don't want or feel are overpriced is a good strategy early on in drafts. It's more likely that your league mates will overspend for a player early when they have more money to spend and the rest of the league isn't completely sure as to what the accurate price point should be for a player.
In reverse, being that person in the league who tries to price-enforce players can backfire quickly. Generally, you should never bid on a player you don't want or are out on, even if it appears the player is going for less than they should be. This can leave you stuck as the high bidder and end up rostering a player that you didn't want. A good compromise is that you should be willing to bid a player up to about 60 percent of what you have their budget set at. This stops your league mates from getting a great bargain and leaves you in a situation where if you do get that player, you didn't break the bank and may be able to trade them for a profit later.
Conclusion
A Dynasty Auction Startup Draft can be a lengthy war of attrition that will test your mental patience and composure. Knowing where to spot the values and build an optimal roster based on your league's format can take years to master. Being able to pivot and remain flexible when your initial draft plans fall apart is an underrated skill.
Due to the lack of quarterbacks in the 2022 NFL Draft Class, it does appear that we are going to see scarcity at the quarterback position in superflex drafts. Being able to lock down at least one young franchise quarterback will keep you ahead of the curve for years. If you can pull off getting two at a good price that is an even better approach. While budgeting is important, if there is one position worth paying up for it is at QB.
If you have any additional comments or questions about dynasty auction startup strategies, please get at me on Twitter! Stay tuned with us at RotoBaller all summer long for insight on roster builds, draft strategies, sleepers to target late in drafts, and accurate player outlooks for the 2023 season.
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