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Mitch Blatt analyzes NFL rookie wide receivers in good and bad fantasy football situations. How will these players impact their team's depth chart in 2023?
As fantasy football managers begin to draft their teams for the 2023 season, we look at the rookie wide receivers and consider who will make an impact in their first season. Rookies often make a big impact at the wide receiver position. In the past two years, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave emerged as fantasy starters in their rookie seasons.
Four wide receivers were drafted in the first round this spring. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison went consecutively during picks No. 20-23. None were drafted as highly as Chase, Wilson, or Olave, but those guys taken in the later half of the first round can still be extremely productive. After all, Jefferson was taken with the 22nd pick and St. Brown was a fourth-rounder!
Opportunity is key. Where do these guys rank on their respective depth charts? And how will they impact the other wideouts on their teams?
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba joins a Seattle Seahawks team with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf as its top two wide receivers. But the Seahawks lack depth beyond the two proven veterans, and JSN goes into training camp as the projected WR3.
Smith-Njigba ran his routes almost exclusively from the slot at Ohio State. Lockett and Metcalf can both excel from out wide. So it is a good bet that JSN will be playing the slot in Seattle. He is a good fit in a role that Seattle needs, which is a positive sign for his potential to get a lot of snaps during his rookie season. The presence of Lockett and Metcalf does not mean Smith-Njigba cannot become the team's primary slot receiver.
Last season, Lockett was the leading slot receiver, running 252 routes out of the slot; however, he ran 56.8% of his routes from out wide. Marquise Goodwin was in the slot more often when he was on the field (58.8% of his routes). However, Goodwin signed with the Cleveland Browns earlier this offseason.
In 2023, you can expect JSN to have a role as a slot receiver from Week 1. If he can beat press man coverage and make plays on the outside as well, that's a bonus. Overtaking Tyler Lockett would be difficult, but he doesn't need to do so to be a contributor. Lockett will run more routes from the outside this season, which could increase his depth of target.
Quentin Johnston (LAC)
Like JSN, Johnston is joining a team with already established veteran receivers. The Los Angeles Chargers' WR1 and WR2, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, are 31 and 28, respectively. Both have a track record of missing games with injuries over the past few years.
Johnston is an elite athlete who needs to work on his technique to eliminate drops and better disguise his routes. He's a prototypical "X" receiver and rarely played the slot at TCU.
If Johnston is to show off his skill set, he will have to unseat either Allen or Williams as the team's main deep threat. Johnston has the youth and speed and could become one of Justin Herbert's favorite targets if he cleans up his game.
Of course, an injury to Allen or Williams would make Johnston a starter in two-receiver sets by default. The biggest player hurt by Johnston could be Josh Palmer, who falls from WR3 to WR4. Last season, Palmer was the one who benefited from injuries to Allen and Williams. He started 11 games and made six or more catches in five games, going for over 100 yards in two games.
Zay Flowers (BAL)
Zay Flowers joins a crowded receiver room in Baltimore. The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor this offseason while signing QB Lamar Jackson to the highest average annual salary in NFL history.
Zay Flowers enters camp as the WR3, but he has the easiest shot to jump to WR1 of all the rookie wide receivers. The only people standing in his way are Beckham Jr., a 30-year-old who has had two major ACL injuries and didn't play a single game last season. The other is Rashod Bateman, a 2021 first-round pick who has shown flashes but never lived up to his potential.
Flowers is only 177 pounds, about 20 pounds lighter than both Beckham Jr. and Bateman. Some scouts projected him as a "slot-only" receiver. However, Beckham Jr. and Bateman are receivers who typically run over 80% of their routes from out wide. The Ravens are rumored to be moving to a new pass-heavy offense that will utilize receivers more and tight ends less, meaning Baltimore could run more three-receiver sets.
As for who is getting hurt by Flowers' arrival, Devin Duvernay and Nelson Agholor sit at WR4 and WR5, respectively. But you probably weren't planning on using them anyway.
Jordan Addison (MIN)
Of this group, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison is the one rookie to enter training camp as a clear-cut WR2. And that's where he'll stay, barring an injury to Justin Jefferson. It's a good bet to make that Addison will not overtake Jefferson by outplaying him.
Lining up alongside Jefferson will improve Addison's ability to get open as opponents focus on shutting down JJ. He will also provide a quality option for Kirk Cousins instead of the aging Adam Thielen, who left for Carolina this offseason.
Meanwhile, 26-year-old K.J. Osborn remains the Vikings' WR3. In his second season as a part-time starter, Osborn caught 60 passes for 650 yards and five touchdowns in 2022. He has been remarkably consistent, having gone for 655 yards the year before. You should count on him as a late-round depth piece who can fill spots during bye weeks for fantasy teams.
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