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It's Opening Day 2.0! At 6 p.m. ET, the first pitches of the 2021 minor league season will be thrown in Portland, Maine and Altoona, Pennsylvania as MiLB will resume play after last year saw their season end before it even began.
Since the last time we had minor league action there have been quite a few changes. The short-season Rookie and A leagues are gone. There were teams that changed affiliations and leagues that saw major restructuring. But in the midst of all the changes, the biggest unknown is how will a missed year of development affect the players working their way up through the system? The top prospects will likely not be as affected by the year off, but for the fringe guys that had shown some promising signs, that missed year could end up costing them their shot at reaching the majors.
As we progress through the season, I'll be looking more at prospects that could have an impact in fantasy in 2021 or 2022, but for this week I wanted to take a look at some deeper, fringe guys that I am going to be watching early on. None of these guys are ranked in the top-100, and Brewer Hicklen (25) and Terrin Vavra (12) are the only guys ranked in their team's top 30 prospects list on MLB Pipeline. It's sink-or-swim time for these guys, so let's see what kind of potential they have if they can overcome an unexpected gap year.
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Matt Hearn - OF, Colorado Rockies
2021 Level: Double-A
2019 stats: 130 G, .292/.361/.363, 1 HR, 39 RBI, 86 R, 45 SB
Hearn had spent the 2017 season playing independent baseball after the Braves released him from their system following his 2016 debut. After opening the 2018 campaign back in the Frontier League again, the Colorado Rockies signed him to a minor league contract. Since then, Hearn has put up solid numbers over 197 games between Low-A and High-A ball.
The name of the game for Hearn is speed, as he was 45-for-60 on stolen base attempts in 130 games at High-A Lancaster in 2019. This came after swiping 18 bases in 67 games in 2018, and after recording 33 steals in 89 games playing in the Frontier League. He also managed to show improvement in his plate discipline, dropping his strikeout rate from 16.9 percent in 2018 to 15.7 percent while raising his walk rate from 6.8 percent to 9.1 percent.
He will start off the 2021 season playing in Double-A, where there will be a fair amount of pressure on him to succeed early on. Hearn is 25 this year, which makes him about a year to a year and a half older than the average age of Double-A players. Players with that much of an age discrepancy tend to be on a shorter leash in the minors, so if Hearn struggles early on, he could find himself a free agent by the end of the season.
I like a guy who can swipe a lot of bases and hit for a high average, which is why I'm keeping an eye on Hearn. There's a slight chance that if he hits well this season he could get a shot at playing in Colorado sometime this year (most likely as a September call-up). However, he likely wouldn't have an impact in fantasy until 2022.
Brewer Hicklen - OF, Kansas City Royals
2021 Level: Double-A
2019 stats: 125 G, .263/.363/.427, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 70 R, 39 SB
While Hearn was an average-plus-speed combo, Hicklen boasts both speed and power. Playing the full season at High-A in 2019, Hicklen hit 13 doubles, seven triples and 14 home runs in 125 games while also stealing 39 bases. It marked his second straight season with double-digit home runs and steals, having launched 18 homers and stealing 35 bases in 104 games between Single-A and High-A in 2018.
In three seasons now since being drafted in the seventh round, Hicklen has 36 home runs and 90 steals, while slashing .283/.368/.476. And like Hearn, Hicklen also showed an improved approach at the plate in 2019, dropping his strikeout rate from 29.2 percent in 2018 to 28.3 percent while raising his walk rate from 6.6 percent to 11.1 percent.
The big thing I'm watching for early on with Hicklen is how his average will fare early on. After hitting .289 with a .864 OPS in 2018, both those numbers dipped in 2019 to .263 and .790, which were both career-worsts for him. And like with Hearn, Hicklen is 25 this year which makes him on the older side for Double-A. However, Hicklen will have a little more job security due to his higher draft position, as well as being considered one of the top-50 prospects in Kansas City's system by most prospect rankers.
I like the power-speed combo that Hicklen has shown so far, and with a solid year in the minors in 2021, I think he could be potentially competing for a bench spot in 2022.
Yusniel Padron-Artilles - SP, Boston Red Sox
2021 Level: High-A
2019 stats: 19 G, 12 GS, 88 IP, 7-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.170 WHIP, 29.8 K%
Padron-Artilles has just two seasons in the minors under his belt — tied with Vavra for the fewest out of everyone on this list — but he showed improvement on the mound in 2019. Pitching between Low-A and Single-A, Padron-Artilles improved on nearly every number in his stat line while increasing his workload from 21 2/3 innings in 2018 to 88 innings.
In particular his strikeout rate saw a significant increase, jumping from 21.3 percent to 29.8 percent. While overall his numbers looked good in 2019, he did show some struggles making the jump to Single-A, as he posted a 5.25 ERA with a 23.8 percent strikeout rate and 6.7 percent walk rate in 24 innings with Greenville.
Out of the four guys on this list, I think Padron-Artilles will have the shortest leash as far as how long the Red Sox will give him before moving on. I have concerns about how he will handle the year off and how he will fare at a higher level after showing struggles in a brief appearance at Single-A. And seeing as he'll be on the older side for High-A and is a former 22nd round pick, the deck is stacked against him a bit right now.
I do like the strikeout potential, which is what I'll be focusing on early in the season. He's still a couple years away from having any impact in fantasy, but he'll be a guy to watch for this year as a potential long-term fantasy sleeper.
Terrin Vavra - 2B/SS, Baltimore Orioles
2021 Level: Double-A
2019 stats: 102 G, .318/.409/.489, 10 HR, 52 RBI, 79 R, 18 SB
And now we'll close out this column with the highest-ranked prospect on this list, as well as the only one to have played in Spring Training. Vavra is new to the Orioles' system, having been acquired in the trade that sent Mychal Givens to the Rockies in 2020. He appeared in 10 games during Spring Training this year, but only managed to go 1-for-5 with two runs and four strikeouts in his Baltimore debut. But in his last season in the minors, Vavra looked much better as he set career-highs in nearly every category at Single-A.
I'm a sucker for a power-speed combo guy, but another thing I like about Vavra is the plate discipline. After posting a 20.1 percent strikeout rate and 13.1 walk rate at Low-A in 2018, Vavra posted a 13.7 percent strikeout rate and 13.7 percent walk rate, as he recorded 62 strikeouts and 62 walks in 453 plate appearances at Single-A.
Vavra looks like he could be a potential 15-homer, 15-steals threat while also being a high-OBP player. It makes sense that the highest ranked guy on this list is the guy I like the most, but in particular I like seeing these numbers out of a middle infielder. I will be looking to see how Vavra responds to both the year off as well as being in a new farm system. In particular, I want to see if he can maintain that solid plate discipline he has shown early in his career.
Vavra is probably the closest out of these guys to getting the call to the show, as Baltimore doesn't have a ton of depth in their system at second base or shortstop. At the same time, the Orioles aren't necessarily in a rush to promote him as 2021 will be a rebuilding year. If he does get called up though, managers in OBP formats should look to scoop him up off the waiver wire as he should be able to make an impact pretty quickly.
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