RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2024 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Golf is officially back! The Sentry is always one of my favorite tournaments of the year, as the beautiful views from Kapalua offer some hope to those of us who are fighting through the winter cold. Chris Kirk emerged from the pack in what was a standard birdie-fest on a Plantation Course layout that's one of the easiest on the PGA Tour's schedule.
We stay in the warm weather of Hawaii this week for the Sony Open, another event that I have a soft spot for. So happy to have you with us again this week, let's dive into some course history at Waialae Country Club!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2024 Sony Open
If you couldn't tell from this week's intro, I genuinely love the "Hawaii Swing". While last week's Sentry is always a nice way to ease back into the PGA routine, this week's Sony Open offers us our first full-field, 36-hole cut event of the calendar year.
A lot of my affection for Sony lies in the uniqueness of the Waialae Country Club layout that's the tournament's long-standing host venue. In a world of bomb-and-gouge, paint-by-numbers golf courses that litter the PGA Tour schedule, Waialae is an old-school plodder's paradise that offers even the shortest drivers in the field a fighting chance. Strategy off the tee, sharp iron play, and a strong short game are what's often rewarded in this tournament.
This short, tight layout can't really be overpowered and routinely rewards experience, with the last player to win the Sony in their tournament debut coming just over a decade ago. It's fair to say that certain players fit the Sony mold better than others, which is why I like incorporating course history into my process at a high level this week. In addition to a player's history at Waialae, I think it's also reasonable to take into account a prominent trend that's seen nine of the past 11 Sony winners tee it up at Kapalua the week before.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Waialae Country Club
Par 70 - 7,044 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Seth Raynor
We get another beautiful Hawaiian golf course this week in Waialae Country Club, the long-time host of the Sony Open. It would be easy to lump this course in a similar bucket as last week's Kapalua layout, but that would be a huge mistake, as the courses are drastically different. Waialae's fairways routinely rank as some of the toughest to hit on the PGA Tour, while Kapalua's huge fairways are hard to miss!
As always, approach play will be of huge importance this week, with sharp DFS players zeroing in on those golfers that are strong from 150-200 yards. Par-4's measuring between 400 and 500 yards comprise 10 of the 18 holes players will face at Waialae. We routinely see the same cast of characters playing well in this event. As a result, course history gets a bigger bump than normal for me this week, with Russell Henley in 2013 being the last player to win the Sony in their tournament debut.
Recent Sony Open Winners
- 2023: Si Woo Kim (-18)
- 2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
- 2021: Kevin Na (-21)
- 2020: Cameron Smith (-11)
- 2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
The Horse
Chris Kirk
- Event Scoring Average: 67.50 (13 career starts)
- Notable Course History: 3rd (2023), T2 ('21), T10 ('18), 2nd('14), T5 ('13)
- DraftKings Price: $9,500
There's often some unique course history info to share in this article, but rarely can we say that a course might have helped to save a player's career. Chris Kirk's connection with Waialae Country Club is certainly unique and oh-by-the-way includes four career top-five finishes.
A win to start the 2024 season 🏆
Chris Kirk claims his sixth TOUR victory @TheSentry! pic.twitter.com/WXAX7BK9sY
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 8, 2024
None was bigger than a runner-up result here in 2021, an electric finish that Kirk recorded while playing on the last start of a medical exemption following a leave of absence from the PGA Tour to deal with his issues with alcohol. The outing allowed Kirk to keep his Tour card and he's undoubtedly capitalized over the past two-plus years.
Kirk came out of the gates firing in 2023 with back-to-back T3s at the Sony and the AmEx before winning at the Honda. It looks as though he's again off to a hot start in 2024, as he triumphed over a stout field at the Sentry. The veteran will hop over to Waialae with plenty of positive momentum and will again find a layout that suits his controlled, precise game perfectly. Kirk finished last season ranked 30th on the PGA Tour in Total Driving and 14th in Approach Proximity.
The Ponies
Brian Harman
- Event Scoring Average: 68.30 (12 career starts)
- Notable Course History: T32 ('23), T4 ('18), T13 ('16), T13 ('15)
- DraftKings Price: $9,900
The diminutive lefty possesses a game that's tailor-made for the tight confines of Waialae Country Club. Unable to overpower golf courses, Harman finished the 2023 season ranked just 156th on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance. Despite that lack of horsepower off the tee, the Georgia Bulldog was able to capture last year's Open Championship in a commanding performance at Royal Liverpool.
We're two hours into the 2024 PGA Tour season and I'm already mentally preparing for Brian Harman winning another major this year
— Stephen Hennessey (@S_HennesseyGD) January 4, 2024
Harman is able to succeed in the modern game -- and has fared well in the past at Waialae -- thanks in large part to his precision off the tee, as well as his prowess on the greens. The veteran ranked 16th on Tour in Driving Accuracy last year, while finishing eighth in Total Putting. Those classic traits have propelled him to made cuts in 10 of his 12 career Sony Open starts with four top-20 finishes among those outings. Harman enters this year's edition in fine form, having gained just over 2.2 strokes on Approach en route to a T5 at the Sentry.
Corey Conners
- Event Scoring Average: 67.05 (Five career starts)
- Notable Course History: T12 ('23), 11th ('22), T12 ('20), T3 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $9,800
The Canadian has looked right at home in Hawaii across his five career Sony Open starts. Thanks in large part to his razor-sharp ball striking, Conners has demonstrated high-end consistency at Waialae by reeling off four consecutive finishes of T12 or better since 2019.
It's no surprise that the ball-striking extraordinaire once again finished near the top of the PGA Tour in multiple T2G metrics last year. Conners closed out 2023 standing 11th in SG: OTT, 21st in SG: APP, and 13th in overall SG: T2G on Tour. There's little question that Waialae is right in the Canadian's wheelhouse from a T2G perspective, though he'll need to warm up a putter that's often frosty and bled over five strokes to the field last week at the Sentry.
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Matt Kuchar
- Event Scoring Average: 68.07 (17 career starts)
- Notable Course History: T7 ('23), T7 ('22), Win ('19), T3 ('15)
- DraftKings Price: $7,800
The vanilla veteran has used the Sony Open as his own personal ATM machine for the better part of the past two decades. Kuchar has been an all-or-nothing bet at Waialae across his 17 career starts. While he's missed an alarming seven cuts, he's also scored a win and seven additional top-10 finishes in the Sony.
KUUUUUUUUUCH 🏆
Matt Kuchar wins the Sony Open for his 9th PGA Tour victory and 2nd in his last four starts 💪https://t.co/bYfH7NervW pic.twitter.com/3fuNgV4yGB
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 14, 2019
So while the 45-year-old might not be as "safe" as some fantasy analysts will lead you to believe this week, there's certainly plenty of upside that comes with backing him. In addition to his lengthy course history at Waialae, Kuch comes in with some positive momentum off what was a very successful fall season that included a T7 at the Fortinet and a runner-up finish at the World Wide Technologies Championship.
Hayden Buckley
- Event Scoring Average: 66.00 (Two career starts)
- Notable Course History: 2nd ('23), T12 ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $6,600
Buckley presents us with an interesting case study of "Course History vs. Recent Form" this week. The 27-year-old up-and-comer has been spectacular in both of his starts at Waialae, logging a T12 in his debut and a runner-up finish last year after appearing to have the tournament in his grasp.
The flip side of this Buckley coin is just how bad he's been in his recent starts, as he's been nothing short of abysmal over the last six months. The Mizzou alum logged three top-10 finishes over the first half of 2023, but the wheels came off in a big way down the stretch, as he battled a rib injury.
After taking nearly two months off to rehab the issue, Buckley returned to action in the FedEx Fall season and squeaked out made cuts in three of five starts - although he lost strokes total in every one of those outings. Will a return to Sony mean a return to form for Buckley? His track record at Waialae makes him an intriguing GPP option at just $6,600 on DraftKings.
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