RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2022 RSM Classic at Sea Island. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! For those of us who have been long-suffering Tony Finau truthers, the last several months sure have been sweet. After a fairly inactive Swing Season, Finau came from nowhere to dominate in Houston last week. It marked his THIRD win on the PGA Tour since July. Not bad for a guy that "can't close"...
There's something of a bittersweet feeling as I type the RSM Classic intro because this event always signifies the last HFTC - and golf tournament - of the year. It has been a very long golf season that's been full of personal ups and downs for me, but the terrific constant in 2022 has been the PGA work that I do for you guys, as well as my awesome PGA crew here at RotoBaller that just continues to grow and improve every single year. While there won't be much PGA content over the next month or so, I won't say goodbye to you guys, just thanks for reading, watching, and/or listening to all of my content this year and I'll see you soon...the boys and I have some big things in store for you in 2023!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2022-23 RSM Classic
We close out the calendar year with the RSM Classic, or as I like to call it, the "Sea Island Club Championship". A staple of the fall schedule, the RSM is somewhat infamous for all of the "homers" (residents of, or those with strong ties to, Sea Island) that pack the field each year.
As a result, we see a very similar field assemble for this tournament each year and we have lots of course history to draw from. This layout (pair of layouts, really) is a unique one due to its relatively short length, as well as the often windy conditions it's played in. Sea Island is one of the very few courses on the PGA Tour schedule on which distance is of basically no importance.
Due to length not being a factor - as well as the "home course" slant - we've seen a very narrow archetype of winners at the RSM. Accuracy and precision is certainly king. For the second week in a row, we'll have no defending champion for the event, as last year's winner - Talor Gooch - is off in LIV land. As of this writing, last week's winner Tony Finau is slated to tee it up in the RSM, as are some familiar names like Webb Simpson, Seamus Power, and Jason Day.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course & Plantation Course)
Par 70 - 7,005 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Tom Fazio
We're thrown a little curveball this week, as every player in the field will play two courses (Seaside & Plantation) in the first two rounds. We'll focus on the Seaside Course here because it's the layout that those players that make the cut will be playing on the weekend... a "plodder's course" is a pretty apt label for the RSM this week, as the bombers will - for the most part - take a back seat at Sea Island.
We'll see a lot of less-than-driver holes and we should place a premium on accurate and precise ball striking, as well as course management. For that reason, I'll be targeting traits of "grinders"...driving accuracy, greens in regulation, and consistent ball striking, while also glancing at putting splits on Bermuda greens.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent RSM Winners
- 2022 Season: Talor Gooch (-22)
- 2021: Robert Streb (-19)
- 2020: Tyler Duncan (-19)
- 2019: Charles Howell III (-19)
- 2018: Austin Cook (-21)
The Horse
Mackenzie Hughes
- Event Scoring Average: 69.11
- Notable Course History: 2nd (2022 Season), Win ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $8,600 FanDuel Price: $10,500
We'll spend a lot of time in this week's article talking about players with strong geographical ties to this area and this event. That's not the case for Mackenzie Hughes, as the last time I checked, Canada is pretty far away from Sea Island.
Despite being something of an odd man out at this tournament, Hughes has demonstrated massive upside at the RSM Classic. He captured his first PGA Tour win at the 2016-17 edition at Sea Island and came close to nabbing another victory here last year, but fell to Talor Gooch in a playoff.
Hughes hasn't been perfect at Sea Island, though. He sandwiched in three MCs and a T65 between the win and last year's runner-up finish...so there is some volatility here.
Taking his boom-or-bust history into account, his recent form would indicate this is a "boom" type of year. Hughes has been brilliant throughout the fall. He took down the Sanderson Farms Championship and bookended that win with top-25 finishes in both the Fortinet and the ZOZO Championships. He comes into the week on the heels of yet another strong performance - a T16 last week in Houston.
The Ponies
Brian Harman
- Event Scoring Average: 68.74
- Notable Course History: T14 ('20), T32 ('19), T4 ('18)
- DraftKings Price: $10,300 FanDuel Price: $11,500
The diminutive lefty won't be the last golfer we talk about in this week's article that's actually a resident of Sea Island. Harman is a former Georgia Bulldog (also a theme this week) that lives and trains at Sea Island resort.
The veteran has amassed a 68.74 career scoring average on his home turf and he's made the cut in seven of his 10 career RSM Classic starts with a top-five and a top-10 among those appearances.
Harman has put together a dynamic Swing Season resume in recent months, with a runner-up finish at Mayakoba being the latest in a string of impressive showings. The veteran has now recorded a top-25 finish in all of his starts since August and has gained strokes on Approach in six consecutive tournaments.
Keith Mitchell
- Event Scoring Average: 68.50
- Notable Course History: T12 ('22), T14 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $9,300 FanDuel Price: $10,800
The former Georgia Bulldog is a proud member of the “Sea Island Mafia” - a group of PGA Tour pros that make their home at Sea Island. Needless to say, Mitchell is very familiar with the beautiful Sea Island resort.
That comfort is reflected in his RSM Classic results. Mitchell has put together a 68.50 career scoring average in this event and he’s now strung together top-14 finishes in two of his last three RSM starts.
After putting forth an excellent season that led to five top-10 finishes in 2022, Mitchell has put together an underwhelming Swing Season. However, he found a nice groove last week in Houston and popped up with a T9 result. It was Mitchell’s best ball-striking performance since June, as he gained an impressive 5.7 strokes on Approach and 7.2 strokes T2G at Memorial Park. He heads to the comforts of home with lots of positive momentum off last week's performance.
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Matthew NeSmith
- Event Scoring Average: 67.75
- Notable Course History: T29 ('22), T15 ('21), T14 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $9,300 FanDuel Price: $10,300
The up-and-comer brings an elite blend of Sea Island experience and recent form to the table this week.
A South Carolina native and resident, NeSmith won the 2015 SEC Championship event at Sea Island’s Seaside Course, has performed well as an amateur at several Jones Cup events held at Sea Island, and he’s logged a pair of top-15 finishes across three RSM starts as a professional.
In addition to his extreme familiarity with Sea Island, NeSmith comes into this year’s RSM playing some of the finest golf of his career. The former Gamecock scored a runner-up finish at the Shriners last month, as well as top-10 results at both the ZOZO and Sanderson Farms Championships across his last four starts.
His recent success can be traced directly to his supreme iron play. NeSmith gained over six strokes on Approach at both the Sanderson and the Shriners. He grades out first in this field in SG: Approach over his last 12 rounds.
Will Gordon
- Event Scoring Average: 68.17
- Notable Course History: T10 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $7,700 FanDuel Price: $10,200
I was really hoping we'd catch Will Gordon's DraftKings salary at somewhere less than $8k, so I'm very pleased to see him here at $7.7k.
The youngster is an explosive player that looked good throughout the fall after graduating from the KFT. Gordon has gone 6-for-6 in made cuts during the Swing Season with an impressive T3 at Mayakoba a couple of weeks ago standing as the highlight.
Big surprise...there's also a strong Sea Island connection here, as Gordon both lives and trains out of the resort. The former Vanderbilt golfer helped to lead the Commodores to the SEC Championship team title at Sea Island in 2017 and followed up with an individual third-place finish here in the 2019 SECs. Gordon also experienced his first breakthrough finish as a professional later that year when he turned in a scorching T10 outing at the RSM Classic.
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