Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - 2025 WM Phoenix Open

The wild, wet, and windy nature of the Monterey Peninsula was on full display this past week as the PGA Tour returned to Pebble Beach for yet another battle on the shore that left the cream rising to the top. Rory McIlroy came alive after making the turn on Sunday with three birdies and an eagle on holes 10 through 16 to comfortably stroll down the majestic 18th fairway to claim his 27th PGA Tour victory.

The season now takes a one-week hiatus from the California coast to venture to Scottsdale, Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open. A fan-favorite stop on the schedule that has become the most raucous professional golf event in the world, which some may say is to its detriment. But admittedly, it has provided some of the most electric scenes for the sport over its 90+ years as an event on the PGA Tour. That expectation is here again, as nearly every player outside the top 10 in the world is making the start.

Horse For The Course is an article highlighting players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For some of the favorite DFS plays of the week check, out the Core Four article written by my buddy, Joe Nicely here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: TDG for an extra discount at checkout!

2025 WM Phoenix Open

While this year's edition isn't lacking firepower, it is interesting to see only three of the players inside the top 10 in the world making the journey here, especially given the two weeks leading up to Bay Hill should be places void of their pedigree, and the fact many of them skipped Torrey Pines the first time around (The Genesis Invitational is moving there next week) for various reasons.

It could be a possibility that the game's best simply don't want to fool with the out-of-hand nature that has plagued this event over the last couple of years. I'm merely speculating, of course, but chucking beer bottles onto greens and having streakers disrupt play is far from the norm that these players deal with on a weekly basis, even at an event as rowdy as the Ryder Cup.

Nevertheless, the field will be headlined by the Tour's number one commodity, Scottie Scheffler, as he continues to knock the rust off a lengthier off-season than he had planned thanks to a laceration in his hand over the holidays. Winning this event two out of the last three years, another contention chance is basically expected at this point. The only real question is who will be contending with him. Ranking as the third-most predictive course on Data Golf, this week's article should provide a solid starting point for most bettors and DFS players.

You can find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles and Player News/Matchup Outlook Posts to help you win big!

The Courses: TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course

Par 71 - 7,261| Greens: Bermuda/Rye | Designed By: Tom Weiskopf/Jay Morrish

Housing one of the most infamous holes in golf, the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale has become one of the most recognizable events on the PGA Tour. The par-3 16th hole seems to create viral moments every year, whether it be hole-in-ones or the fan reactions to one, an entire streaming channel could be dedicated to showing coverage solely of this 163-yard hole. However, my favorite is the drivable par-4, 17th hole which seems to create the most defining moments in this event.

With only three par 5s on the property, much of the scoring success will come from par 4s and the gettable par 3s that play under 200 yards on three of the four. The winning score for this event has largely hovered between -15 and -19 under par, so while I wouldn't consider this event an outright birdie-fest, players certainly can't afford to stay stagnant for too long.

The layout features generous room on the fairways and greens, but missing either can result in gnarly outcomes from the desert surrounding every hole or deep swells making up-and-downs a real chore. Generally, accuracy trumps distance off the tee here, and the approach play should be focused heavily on 150-200 yards since it made up nearly 43% of the distribution in previous years. While strokes gained putting is crucial every week, it is the leading correlation with total strokes gained at this event since 2015.

Recent WM Phoenix Open Winners

• 2024: Nick Taylor (-21)
• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16)
• 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
• 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)

The Horse

Scottie Scheffler

• Notable Finishes: 1st ('23 & '22)

As I said earlier, Scottie Scheffler has been a dominant force at TPC Scottsdale since his debut here in 2020. Yeah, he missed the cut his first time, but since then he hasn't finished worse than T7 and has secured two victories.

Much of the success has been due to him blowing away the field with his ball striking, as it usually does. Compared to players with more than one appearance, he leads them all with an impressive average of +1.125 strokes gained on approach over 18 rounds. Scheffler is also second in the field in strokes gained off the tee at an average of +1.055.

Given the raw talent he has put on display for the last 2 years at least, last week's T9 at Pebble was his version of "knocking off the rust" and you can almost bet to see his name on the first page of this leaderboard come Sunday.

The Ponies

Justin Thomas

• Notable Finishes:  T3 ('20), 4th ('23) 

Justin Thomas are you serious?!?!

He’s made TWO hole-out eagles in his last 4 holes. 🤯pic.twitter.com/cRr9fJV2Fo

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 1, 2025

What has now turned into the norm for Justin Thomas, his start to 2025 has been inconsistent. Even at venues where he has a well-established course history, the struggle to put four rounds together has been present for at least the last year and a half. TPC Scottsdale is another stop that has been kind to the 31-year-old.

He is ranked third in the field in total strokes gained at this event, mostly thanks to the superb ball-striking he's demonstrated over the years. However, the performance with the driver through the season's first three events hasn't been great as he's lost strokes in two of them.

If he can't figure out the woes off the tee, the expectation will certainly be hindered from what I would have otherwise.

Sahith Theegala

• Notable Finishes: T3 ('22), 5th ('24)

Sahith Theegala knocks in the birdie putt from 37 feet. 🔥

📺 Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/gjt7skyxRv

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) December 7, 2024

Listed as the second-best player in the field in true strokes gained at TPC Scottsdale by Data Golf, Sahith Theegala has given us some exciting golf in two of the last three editions of this tournament. But, it has unfortunately culminated in the former Pepperdine golfer falling just short of capturing a win both times.

His success at the Stadium Course has come mostly by way of a red-hot putter that is not typically his strong suit. It's nice to have that scenario in your bag of tricks, but players who live and die by the flat stick don't typically fare as well in win equity. So, it will be interesting to see how things fare this week.

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Matt Fitzpatrick

• Notable Finishes: T10 ('22), T15 ('24)

Matt Fitzpatrick hits the spin cycle. 🌀pic.twitter.com/PgvAKfIpp3

— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) January 8, 2025

TPC Scottsdale presents an opportunity for Matt Fitzpatrick to get something going in the right direction, as the English golfer has fallen 45 spots in the World Golf Ranking over the last 12 months from eighth to 53rd. It's a surprising about-face given the trajectory he seemed to be on after his U.S. Open victory in 2022 and two wins in a successful 2023 season.

Fitzpatrick has made the cut at this event in all three career starts. Even though his two outings in 2025 have been lackluster, the statistics say he isn't far from giving us another solid finish. He gained strokes in all metrics this past week at Pebble Beach, however minuscule it may have been. But given his track record there, it was a hopeful showing.

Through his first two events this season, his largest strokes gained metrics have come from on the green and off the tee, which bodes well for this layout. It also makes it much easier to see some light in this tunnel as long as the approach play can stay somewhat neutral. I honestly feel better about Fitz's chances this week than I probably should, so do with that what you will.

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