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Todd McGill's DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2025 Sentry Tournament at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Picks for daily fantasy golf based on course history
Happy New Year, Rotoballers! After the short layoff to recharge the batteries of the world's best players, we are back for a brand new PGA Tour season. Seven of the top 10 players in the world have made the trip to Hawaii to kick off the new year with Scottie Scheffler (injury) and Rory McIlroy being the most notable missing names. 2025 looks to be a transformative year in professional golf as the LIV-PGA feud gains more clarity, TGL makes its debut, and captivating events resume for another trip around the sun.
Kapalua has been the starting point of every PGA Tour year since 1999 and was reserved for winners from the previous season. However, a change in 2021 expanded the field to include Tour Championship qualifiers (now top 50 in last season's FedEx Cup points) without a win from the previous season. This 60-player field should be fun to watch, as this event is no stranger to fireworks, and as last year's winner Chris Kirk suggests, it is anyone's ballgame.
Horse For The Course is an article highlighting players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For some of the favorite DFS plays of the week check, out the Core Four article written by my buddy, Joe Nicely here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: TDG for an extra discount at checkout!
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2025 Sentry Tournament
With two of the last three winners gone to LIV, a new face is bound to be hoisting the trophy come Sunday. Chris Kirk looks to defend his title though that feat hasn't been accomplished here since Geoff Ogilvy in '09-'10. There are many players with excellent history at this event, but, the wild, and certainly windy nature of this location and layout have given us captivating Sunday finishes that make it difficult to accomplish such a feat.
Cam Smith kicked off his 2022 year by posting the lowest four-day total relative to par in PGA Tour history (-34 under). Justin Thomas won a 3-hole sudden-death playoff over Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele in 2020; one of several playoffs to happen at this event over the years. With the NFL having many meaningless week-18 games and most fantasy championships having been decided, it may be a fun week to pay attention to golf.
Missing Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy certainly hamper the overall product, but one could argue that their absence gives the rest of the field a fighting chance. Did you see the butt-whooping they gave Brooks and Bryson a few weeks ago?
You can find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles and Player News/Matchup Outlook Posts to help you win big!
The Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Par 73 - 7596 yards | Greens: Tifeagle Bermuda | Designed By: Bill Coore/Ben Crenshaw
It's easy to question how a course that plays over 7,500 yards long with 15-20+ mph winds still yields the scores it does. However, it's important to note that Kapalua is the only par 73 course on the PGA Tour and only has three par-3s. That discrepancy makes this layout play much shorter than most courses on tour, and coupled with the course boasting fairways 20 yards wider than the PGA Tour average, birdies are generally easy pickings for the world's best players.
One of the most notable changes made to this property was in 2019 when 100 acres of fairway was replaced with Celebration Bermudagrass to restore the course to the firmer conditions that allowed Jonathan Byrd to hit the PGA Tour's first 400-yard drive in 2003, which is how the course was designed to be played.
Panoramic views of the Pacific Ocean are present around the entire property, as many tee shots come from above the fairways at noticeable elevation changes. Interestingly though, there aren't any water hazards on the Plantation Course. However, that doesn't mean this place is void of trouble for wayward shots, as mountainous terrain defines this property rather than water.
Recent Sentry Tournament Winners
- 2024: Chris Kirk (-29)
- 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
- 2021: Harris English (-25)
- 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
The Horse
Collin Morikawa
- Notable Finishes: 2nd ('23), T5 ('24 & '22)
Arguably one of the hottest players down the stretch last season, Collin Morikawa has an early chance to accomplish something this year that he didn't last year; a victory. His history at Kapalua is the best in the field, especially with guys who've never won here.
Morikawa is fifth in the field in strokes gained on approach (+0.783) at this course, and compared to guys with at least six rounds played, he leads the group in true strokes gained (+2.41). One start since the Tour Championship may cause doubt in some bettors and DFS players. However, he hasn't been one to show up to this event unprepared and I don't expect this time to be any different.
The Ponies
Xander Schauffele
- Notable Finishes: 1st ('19), T2 ('20)
Just a reminder, Xander Schauffele plays golf in 10 days. 🌊👀
Fun memories from a final round -11, 62 to win The Sentry back in 2019.pic.twitter.com/vPXZLpyZ3d
— Xander Schauffele Legion (@XanderLegion) December 24, 2024
It took a while for everything to come together for Xander Schauffele, but things finally did in 2024 as the second-best player in the world captured two major victories and a slew of other top finishes. Heading into 2025, it will be interesting to see what he does given his new status in the game and added expectations.
No stranger to the Plantation course, Schauffele hoisted the trophy here in 2019 before narrowly missing a repeat victory the following two seasons. The finishes have climbed slightly since then, though he's still notched top 15 honors in two of the last three years (he withdrew in 2023 due to a back ailment). He is the betting favorite heading into the first round, and it is stupidly easy to see why.
Justin Thomas
- Notable Finishes: 1st ('20 & '17), 3rd ('21), T5 ('22)
Justin Thomas with the shot of the year 👏
(Via @NoLayingUp) pic.twitter.com/L8d4RJBLZg
— Tour Golf (@PGATUOR) January 6, 2023
As a fan, I hope 2025 is the resurgence of Justin Thomas. It's crazy to see the quick dismissal of a player who won a major championship two years ago, but the play since has been a rollercoaster, resulting in two extremely lean years for a player of his caliber.
There is reason to believe this week for JT, and not only because of his great history at the Plantation Course (fourth in the field in true strokes gained at this course: +2.00). He also ended 2024 in great form by almost winning the ZOZO Championship and Hero World Challenge. If he's still on the right track, this week could be a big kickoff to his campaign.
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Patrick Cantlay
Notable Finishes: 4th ('20 & '22)
PATTY ICE. CLUTCH!! 🇺🇸🥶
Patrick Cantlay sinks it for birdie to seal a 1UP win and the 11th U.S. point!
📺 NBC and Peacock | #PresidentsCup pic.twitter.com/4CDvRcoQ9W
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) September 28, 2024
It was a volatile start to 2024 for Patrick Cantlay. However, things slowly grew more consistent as the year went on, ending with two top 5s and four top 20s over his last seven starts. He was also the backbone of the American team at the President's Cup in September.
Cantlay has never finished worse than T16 in six career starts at Kapalua. He's fifth in true strokes gained in this year's field for guys with more than eight rounds played. Even if Matty Ice doesn't wow us this week with some insanely clutch putt, he should still be an asset to watch out for.
Sungjae Im
Notable Finishes: T5 ('24 & '21)
Sunjae Im is an international treasure.
(Via @tonyfinaugolf) pic.twitter.com/WiqjF0k8Sm
— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) September 27, 2022
Coming in with the third-highest true strokes gained average at this event (+2.08) in this year's field, Sungjae Im is someone most bettors and DFS players have managed expectations with. He doesn't win or even truly contend down the stretch at most events, but he churns out high finishes constantly.
Luckily, this article tells you who has performed well at certain courses and not a pick to win, because the latter certainly wouldn't have Im's name on it. His superb ball striking works well for the blustery conditions of Maui, and seeing his name hanging around the lead is a real expectation. Just don't get too greedy here.
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