RADIO
It was a wonderful week in San Diego at Torrey Pines, as the relocated Genesis Invitational brought a ton of action and drama down the stretch that ended with a Ludvig Aberg victory. The young Swede overcame a spotty start on Sunday to birdie four of his final six holes and steal the win away from a red-hot Maverick McNealey. It was the 25-year-old's second PGA Tour victory, setting him up for a big 2025 season.
The Tour will make one last stop on this side of the continent for this week's Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta Course. A longstanding professional golf event for the country, but still fairly new to the PGA Tour. 2025 will be its fourth playing, however, field strength has diminished year over year making this one of the more forgettable events on the schedule. Still, there is fun to be had and golf to watch and it will be important to know who has performed well in the limited run at this beautiful property.
Horse For The Course is an article highlighting players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For some of the favorite DFS plays of the week check, out the Core Four article written by my buddy, Joe Nicely here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: TDG for an extra discount at checkout!
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2025 Mexico Open
After the run of golf over the last few weeks, it isn't surprising to see most of the world's best players take the early journey to the East Coast. But for guys outside the bubble who didn't get into the two Signature Events in the past three weeks, making the journey to the Land of the Aztecs is vital.
In terms of world ranking, Aaron Rai is the highest in the field at 29th. Though from a popularity perspective, Akshay Bhatia is perhaps the biggest draw this week at 30th in the world. These events can be much more successful for DFS players given the wider ownership discrepancy amongst the lesser-known players.
There is also greater flexibility at an event where many players only have one or two starts here because the first-time participants aren't at such a disadvantage from a course knowledge standpoint. So while this event may be less appealing to casual golf fans, it is one to pay close attention to for DFS and betting purposes.
You can find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles and Player News/Matchup Outlook Posts to help you win big!
Vidanta Vallarta Course
Par 71- 7,436| Greens: Paspalum | Designed By: Greg Norman
A resort-style venue designed by Greg Norman, Vidanta Vallarta has been a birdie-fest in its past three renditions on wider-than-average fairways and soft paspalum surfaces. Like most Norman layouts, bunkers are plentiful. However, they don't come into play as much for Tour players as they do for average Joe's.
In simple terms, this layout has the same strategy as Torrey Pines: hit it far. The difference here is that missing fairways isn't nearly as penalizing as at the South Course, so it allows players to free-will it off the tee. Long irons are also a big factor since 63.5% of all approach shots came from 175+ in last year's event.
The wall-to-wall paspalum surfaces have a peculiar taste among PGA Tour players. It is a warm-season grass that closely resembles bermudagrass but doesn't produce nearly the same amount of roll or bounce on incoming shots. That discrepancy is a large reason that scores are so low on this otherwise decent test. Wind is the only true defense of this place, and if it is absent, scores will hit -20 under par+.
Recent Mexico Open Winners
- 2024: Jake Knapp (-19)
- 2023: Tony Finau (-24)
- 2022: Jon Rahm (-17)
The Horse
Patrick Rodgers
- Notable Finishes: T6 ('24), 10th ('22)
Center cut for Patrick Rodgers! 💥
He birdies No. 17 to reach 9 under @thegenesisinv pic.twitter.com/6ElQ49298q
— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) February 15, 2025
I admittedly have some angst putting Patrick Rodgers in this position given the rough go of things Sunday at Torrey Pines. But it's not that he did much wrong, he was simply outpaced. He still ranked third in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.10), fourth in strokes gained putting (+1.51), and eighth in strokes gained around the green (+0.74).
The biggest letdown of his game remains with the irons, as he lost over three and a half shots on approach at Torrey, his third-straight event losing strokes in that metric.
His history at Vidanta Vallarta is why he is the highest player on this list, as he leads the field in total strokes gained on this course compared to players with more than one appearance. His worst finish is a T10, and it is evident that his putter works as well on paspalum as on poa annua, as the 32-year-old boasts a +0.783 strokes gained putting average over his three starts.
The Ponies
Stephan Jaeger
- Notable Finishes: T3 ('24)
From a stats perspective, Stephan Jaeger is playing much better than his T36-T3-MC-T40-T44 finishes this season reflect. His worst two finishes have both come at Torrey Pines but for different reasons. He lost over six shots on the greens at the Genesis Invitational this past week, and his missed cut at the Farmers was due to losing -5.4 strokes on approach.
The putting woes are much more common to the German golfer than the struggles with the irons, which bounced back to a +0.72 average on his second shot at Torrey. In three starts at Vidanta Vallarta, he hasn't finished worse than T18 and has done so coming from poor finishes leading up. If course history is the end-all-be-all strategy this week, Jaeger is a great dark horse option.
Jake Knapp
- Notable finishes: 1st ('24)
Jake Knapp, you are a PGA Tour champion. 🏆pic.twitter.com/jb0nSYgRPH
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 25, 2024
It is wild to see how Jake Knapp dominated this course last season, especially from a strokes gained on approach perspective. While his +3.649 total strokes gained average over the four rounds last season is the highest in tournament history, the nearly nine shots he gained with his irons is the astounding part of the equation.
His length off the tee gives him a stark advantage on this layout while being one of the more inaccurate drivers of the golf ball, and his prolific iron play from beyond 200 yards is some of the best on tour. Vidanta Vallarta is taylormade for Jake Knapp.
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Carson Young
- Notable Finishes: T8 ('24), T15 ('23)
CAM YOUNG DRAINS THIS 9 FOOTER ON #18 FOR A 59! 🔥👏
— Tour Golf (@PGATUOR) June 22, 2024
I am adding Carson Young to this article through gritted teeth because of his record here in two career starts. Nothing about his current form correlates with the success we've seen from most of the top finishers. He has relied more on accuracy off the tee than overall distance throughout his career, and his skill with the long irons has been subpar compared to his lower clubs in the bag this season.
Interestingly, the 30-year-old has a better strokes gained off the tee average at Vidanta Vallarta (+0.859) than any other venue he's played in two seasons on the PGA Tour. The struggle for Young lately has been with the irons, losing strokes in his past two starts at a concerning rate.
The iron play will need to drastically improve if he hopes to continue his strong run at this event, and that's if the comfortableness off the tee continues.
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