RADIO
Hello, RotoBaller PGA fam, and welcome back to Horse For The Course! National opens are awesome and the Canadian version didn't disappoint thanks to an emotional win from Robert MacIntyre that came with his father on the bag.
While I think highly of the RBC Canadian Open, last week's field was admittedly a bit lacking in firepower. That won't be a problem this week, as we head to one of the most decorated events on the PGA Tour schedule in The Memorial!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2024 The Memorial
It's not a knock on the Canadian Open to call last week's event something of a "breather"... a moment to reset before an extremely important two-week stretch of golf that includes a Signature Event and the year's third major championship.
Before golf's best arrive at Pinehurst for the U.S. Open, a legitimate challenge awaits this week at Muirfield Village. Everyone knows that the Memorial is Jack Nicklaus' event, and as a result, this tournament simply means more, a fact the PGA Tour reinforced with its "Signature Event" designation.
As most people know, Jack has turned into a bit of a grump in his later years, though I'm actually appreciative of his curmudgeonly ways, as it has led him to continue to ramp up the difficulty level of his beloved Muirfield Village layout. Viktor Hovland outlasted the pack last year to win the Memorial with a score of seven-under-par and he'll look to defend against a field that's comprised of the best the PGA Tour has to offer.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big! This week's Horse For The Course contains excerpts from my Masters Bible, which contains outlooks for every player in this year's field. You can find it free by clicking here.
The Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Par 72 - 7,569 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass, Designed By: Jack Nicklaus
We can always count on a Nicklaus-designed course to force the players into strategic thinking and Muirfield Village doesn't disappoint. Muirfield Village has rough that's actually penal lining the fairways and around greens that will punish a player's mistakes. 'The Golden Bear' built this course from the ground up in the 1970s, and he continually updates it as needed.
It's lengthy enough to require mid-to-long irons on some approach shots, but isn't a 'bomber's track'. Difficult, but not impossible to score on, we'll see golfers post both 66s and 76s this week. In other words, Muirfield is a very high-quality golf course...and one that Jack Nicklaus almost endlessly tinkers with. That tinkering led to noticeable changes over the last couple of years that included the addition of trees and bunkers, as well as the re-finishing of green complexes.
The closest comp for the Memorial would be a major championship, which is why we've seen high-caliber golfers consistently triumph on this layout throughout the years. As a result, I'll be placing heavy emphasis on a player's all-around game (SG:T2G), while specifically targeting SG: OTT & Total Driving, as well as mid-to-long approach numbers.
Recent Memorial Winners
- 2023: Viktor Hovland (-7)
- 2022: Billy Horschel (-13)
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13)
- 2020: Jon Rahm (-9)
- 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)
The Horse
Patrick Cantlay
Perhaps Patrick Cantlay has spent too much time trying to be Logan Roy because despite his reported boardroom prowess, the Californian has largely been quiet on the course in 2024. A top-10 machine for the last few years, Cantlay has notched just two such finishes this season with a T4 at the Genesis way back in February, and more recently, a T3 at the RBC Heritage.
His result at Harbour Town is interesting, as it has long been one of Cantlay's favorite Tour stops. Another of his most successful venues on the schedule? Muirfield Village. He won on the tough Jack Nicklaus layout in 2019 and again in 2021.
Cantlay's strength historically - he hasn't displayed it so much this year - is his high level of competency in all facets of the game. His combination of distance and accuracy off the tee, sometimes excellent iron play, and elite short game translates well to the stiff all-around test that Muirfield Village provides, and he's played this course at an average of +1.46 strokes above expectation for his career. While the consistency hasn't been there for Cantlay this year, he's still capable of a spiked performance in this comfy environment.
The Ponies
Scottie Scheffler
No surprises here, as - with all due respect to Xander Schauffele and anyone else - Scottie Scheffler remains the clear-cut top player in the world at the moment. His excellence has translated to the Memorial, where he's recorded third-place finishes the last two times he's teed it up in the historic event.
Last year's third-place finish encapsulated Scottie's 2023 campaign perfectly, as he ridiculously gained 20.7 strokes T2G (the best mark of his career) while losing a comically bad 8.5 strokes putting (the second-worst mark of his career).
He's found some solace on the greens this year and is actually +0.4 SG: Putting on average over his last 10 starts, which has resulted in FOUR victories for the talented Texan. While he's looked unbeatable for the entire year, the Texan did look at least a little human in the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago en route to settling for a share of second with less than his best stuff. I'm willing to chalk it up to the wild ride that's consisted of parenthood and jail for Scottie across the past month. After a week off to regroup, I expect him to be a force at Muirfield Village this week (as well as next week at Pinehurst).
Si Woo Kim
After being on cruise control for much of 2024, Si Woo heads to Dublin, Ohio on the heels of his worst two outings of the year - a missed cut at the PGA Championship and a T56 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Though it might not sound like an ideal time to invest in the talented South Korean, there's reason to believe he will rebound this week at The Memorial.
Kim's often elite T2G ability has served him well in previous appearances on the demanding Muirfield Village layout with last year's fourth-place finish serving as the highlight of four consecutive results of T18 or better in The Memorial. Kim's mark of +1.782 SG: Total per round over the last five years is fourth-best among this week's entrants with two or more Memorial starts. His putter has been undeniably ice-cold over the past month, but Kim ranks inside the top 20 in this elite field in SG: OTT, APP, & ATG over his last 24 rounds.
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Denny McCarthy
On paper, this 7,569-yard beast of a layout doesn't make tons of sense for D-Mac, who is more known for his putting prowess than his length or ball-striking ability. But after missing the cut in two of his first three career Memorial starts, McCarthy has unlocked something at Muirfield, scoring a runner-up finish to Viktor Hovland and a T5 over the last two editions of the stacked event.
While Denny's putting was, of course, astronomically good in those outings, we shouldn't overlook the fact that he gained a combined 7.4 strokes T2G over his last two Memorial starts. He comes into this year's edition off a T24 in his most recent outing at Colonial and with a pair of top-10 finishes in his last six starts.
While most of the time we're trying to target elite ball-strikers in hopes of a spiked putting week, it's always the inverse with McCarthy. The chances are high that he'll once again be elite with the flat stick at Muirfield, though we will need an above-average ball-striking performance for him to find his way into contention again. He's shown enough form recently - and in this event over the last two years - to feel good about his chances.
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