RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2022 Valero Texas Open. His Horse for the course for daily fantasy golf is based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new No. 1 player in the world. Scottie Scheffler cut through the competition to win the WGC-Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club. It marked Scheffler's third win in his last five starts. The 25-year-old becomes the sixth-youngest player to reach the No. 1 spot since the 1986 inception of the world ranking.
After a week's worth of match play that perhaps wasn't everyone's cup of tea, we are back to the more traditional stroke-play format this week with the Valero Texas Open.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2022 Valero Texas Open Overview
Perhaps the biggest challenge this week is to not get ahead of ourselves and start focusing on next week, as the Masters looms agonizingly close. For years, it was the Houston Open that preceded the year's first major, but the Valero Texas Open has held this spot on the schedule since 2019.
Many of golf's best players made last week's Dell Match Play their final pre-Masters warm-up, but this week's Valero field is not without interesting storylines. All eyes were on Jordan Spieth and his game's long-awaited resurgence heading into last year's edition and the Texan came through with a victory at TPC San Antonio. Although it's been a quiet 2022 for Spieth so far, he will attempt to defend his title against a field that's - Rory McIlroy & Bryson DeChambeau aside - fairly low on star power and made up of more Masters hopefuls than golfers we expect to be legitimate contenders next week, as the Valero serves as the last chance for those not already qualified to punch their ticket to Augusta. We've seen miracles happen before, with Corey Conners being the most recent Cinderella story in 2019, after he parlayed a Monday Q outing into a Valero win and a trip to the Masters.
Those motivations are something worth considering this week. Is a player trying to get into the Masters or simply fine-tuning their game for next week? Either way, this TPC San Antonio layout can be a tricky challenge, especially if the Texas winds kick up. A common thread that runs through this week's HFTC players is ball-striking, as this event has been a true ball-striker's paradise in the past and I look for that skill to once again be of the utmost importance in this year's edition.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Par 72 - 7,494 Yards, Greens: Champion Bermuda overseed w/ Poa, Designed By: Pete Dye & Greg Norman
Opened in 2010, this Pete Dye/Greg Norman design (with an assist from Sergio Garcia) immediately found its way into the PGA Tour rotation and has hosted this event since it opened. Norman incorporated the natural terrain to create a layout that's long and tough. Its length definitely gives a bump to the bombers, though we have seen precise ball-strikers thrive here in recent years due to course conditions. The Par-5's are no picnic, as all four play almost 600 yards and don't yield the number of birdies and eagles that we normally see on the Tour.
The wind is always a huge factor at TPC San Antonio, as intended with the design. It's somewhat of a fool's errand trying to predict the weather, especially wind, but it's worth keeping an eye on the forecast for any possible tee-time draw advantage, as the recent situation at The Players Championship proved. The big takeaway this week is: ball striking, ball striking, and more ball striking.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Valero Texas Open Winners
- 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
- 2020: Canceled due to COVID-19
- 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
- 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
- 2017: Kevin Chappell (-12)
Event Notes
- Jordan Spieth's win in last year's Valero marked his first victory since the 2017 Open Championship.
- Charley Hoffman's runner-up finish was his fifth career top-five in the Valero and he's never missed a cut in 15 career starts.
- First played in 1922, this is the PGA Tour's third-oldest tournament.
The Horse
Corey Conners
Notable Course History: T14 (2021), Win ('19), T26 ('18)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
The 2019 Valero Texas Open changed the trajectory of Corey Conners' career. Conners wasn't a complete unknown to hardcore golf fans at the time, as he'd posted some strong outings in 2018, but he was fighting for his pro golf life and making the rounds on the Monday Q circuit. He became the first Monday qualifier to go on and win an event since 2010 when he took down the Valero title in '19. The rest is history, as they say, with the Canadian now being one of the most prolific ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, a fact that is well known to those in the PGA DFS community.
Conners has demonstrated in his other starts at TPC San Antonio that his 2019 victory was no fluke by posting a T26 in 2018 and a T14 in last year's edition of the Valero. He's also proven that he belongs on golf's biggest stages, with top-20 finishes in three of last year's four major championships. Over the his last 50 rounds, Conners grades out sixth among this week's field in SG: Ball Striking.
After a bit of a February swoon with his iron play, Conners has regained his form in March, gaining a combined 15.9 strokes T2G at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship. He's also coming in off an impressive semi-final run at the WGC-Dell Match Play.
The Ponies
Jordan Spieth
Notable Course History: Win ('21), T30 ('19), 2nd ('15), T10 ('14)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
Outside of a runner-up performance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, it has been a forgettable year on the course for Jordan Spieth. Off the course, Spieth and his wife did welcome their first child at the end of 2021, so I am willing to give him something of a pass for his fairly sluggish start to 2022.
Although things have been rather quiet for the Texan this year, we are now entering a stretch where things could get real loud, real quick...this portion of the schedule has been extremely kind to Spieth historically.
Despite his lack of notable results this year, his iron play has been trending in the right direction since the near-miss at Pebble Beach. Although he's failed to log a top-25 since the AT&T, he's actually gained strokes on Approach in each of his last four starts and has gained an average of 1.2 strokes T2G over his last five. It's admittedly not much, but it does remind us that his game isn't completely out to sea.
Chris Kirk
Notable Course History: T6 ('21), MC ('19), T8 ('18), MC ('17), T13 ('16), T8 ('15)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
A hard-luck outing at The Players Championship aside, the Florida Swing proved to be extremely fruitful for Chris Kirk. The UGA alum looked sharp en route to a T7 at the Honda Classic and a T5 at the API. Including the missed cut at TPC Sawgrass, Kirk has now gained strokes T2G, OTT, & on Approach in each of his last five starts.
He brings that sharp form to a TPC San Antonio layout on which he's thrived in the past. The 36-year-old has recorded three top-eight finishes over seven career Valero appearances. His recent play has allowed him to rank first in this week's field in SG: Total over the last 12 rounds and I expect this excellent run to continue in this year's edition of the Valero.
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Gary Woodland
Notable Course History: T6 ('21), T26 ('15)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
As he continues to search for his first victory since winning the 2019 U.S. Open, Gary Woodland's combination of recent form and course history at TPC San Antonio indicate that he could be lifting a trophy this week. Woodland has battled some injuries since his triumph at Pebble Beach, but his perseverance paid off with back-to-back top-five finishes during the Florida Swing at the Honda and API, as well as a top-25 result at the Valspar in which he gained an eye-opening 4.5 strokes on Approach.
Woody has now gained strokes with the irons in four consecutive starts and grades out second in this field in SG: Approach over his last 12 rounds. His Valero track record isn't extensive, but a T6 in last year's edition indicates this TPC San Antonio layout suits the Jayhawk's game.
Kevin Streelman
Notable Course History: 6th ('19), T8 ('18), T53 ('17), T37 ('16)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
Like many of the other players in this week's HFTC, Kevin Streelman's output noticeably ticked up during the Florida Swing. The veteran logged top-25 outings at both the Honda and Players before gaining 7.4 strokes T2G en route to a T7 at the Valspar in his most recent start. The performance at Copperhead was his best of the year from tee-to-green. He'll try to keep that positive momentum rolling this week on an Oaks Course where he's scored top-eight finishes in each of his last two Valero appearances.
Charley Hoffman
Notable Course History: 2nd ('21), 2nd ('19), Win ('16)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
It might sound weird to say that I debated with myself about whether to include the Valero Texas Open king, Charley Hoffman, in this week's HFTC. However, Hoffman's recent form has been soooo bad that I can't truly recommend him.
Instead, I think this serves as a very nice case study in the age-old PGA DFS debate of course history vs recent form, as there is an extremely stark difference between the two when it comes to Hoffman this week. The course history doesn't get any better...he won this event in 2016 and has posted runner-up finishes in each of his last two Valero starts. However, the form is downright ugly...he's lost strokes T2G in every one of his 2022 starts and has missed the cut horribly in his last two outings.
Which one wins out this week, course history or current form? I'm not sure, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out!
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