RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2021 Northern Trust. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! The Wyndham usually provides plenty of drama as the PGA Tour's regular season finale and this year was no different, as we were treated to an action-packed final round that culminated in a wild, six-man playoff! Sedgefield specialist Kevin Kisner emerged from the gaggle for the fourth PGA Tour win of his career. With the victory, Kisner heads into the FedEx Cup Playoffs in strong position and also puts himself in the mix for Ryder Cup consideration.
With the regular season now in the books, the golf world turns its attention to the FedEx Cup Playoffs. We kick the postseason off with this week's Northern Trust at Liberty National.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2021 Northern Trust
Wow...what a way to close out the PGA Tour's regular season! The Wyndham Championship culminated with a wild six-man sudden-death playoff. After Adam Scott gifted the group a second chance on the first playoff hole, our guy Kevin Kisner knocked in a birdie putt to win on the second playoff hole. With the final regular-season event now in the books, the golf world turns its attention to the FedEx Cup Playoffs and its opening leg, the Northern Trust.
The chase for the FedEx Cup and a $15 million dollar prize begins this week at the Northern Trust. After being held at TPC Boston last year, we return to Liberty National for the 2021 edition. We love extensive course history here at HFTC, but unfortunately, we only have a tiny sliver of a sample size for Liberty National. Prior to the 2019 Northern Trust, Liberty National had last hosted a stroke-play event way back in 2013 (as well as the President's Cup in 2017), so we don't have a ton of course history to work with this week.
As you can imagine, this field is absolutely loaded with the game's top players. The top-125 players on the FedEx Cup points list are qualified to tee it up this week and 124 of them will be in action (Louis Oosthuizen is the only qualified player sitting this one out). The field includes 2020 Northern Trust and FedEx Cup champion Dustin Johnson, recent major-championship winners Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm, as well as Olympic gold medalist Xander Schauffele. This week's field is undoubtedly major-championship like, which should make this a tremendous event to both watch and make DFS lineups for.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Liberty National GC
Par 71 - 7,410 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass, Architect: Robert E. Cupp - Tom Kite
After making its PGA Tour debut back in 2009 to less-than-stellar reviews from the players (Tiger Woods famously trashed the course), LNGC underwent a pretty drastic renovation in 2010 in an effort to improve its playability. Things have been improved and the 2013 Barclays, 2017 Presidents Cup, and 2019 Northern Trust went off without a hitch. While Liberty is easier now than it was originally, it's certainly not a pushover. As Patrick Reed's 16-under par winning score in the 2019 Northern Trust illustrates, birdies are possible, but not a given. Frequent and unpredictable winds off the New York harbor can wreak havoc on golfer's rounds, as the course has few trees and is exposed to the wind. Accuracy both off the tee and on approach is required to score. I probably sound like a broken record at this point in the year, but ball striking will once again be of the utmost importance this week and will be my main focus when identifying DFS plays.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Northern Trust Winners
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) at TPC Boston
- 2019: Patrick Reed (-16) at Liberty National*
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-18) at Ridgewood
- 2017: Dustin Johnson (-13) at Glen Oaks
- 2016: Patrick Reed (-9) at Bethpage Black
The Horse
Adam Scott
Notable Course History: 5th (2019), Win ('13 - The Barclays)
DraftKings Price: $8,400 FanDuel Price: $9,600
A common theme throughout this week's HFTC is just how little course history we have to go on at Liberty National, though one common thread over the last two stroke-play events held at LNGC is Adam Scott. Scott captured the 2013 Barclays title and posted a fifth-place finish in the 2019 Northern Trust...both of which were held at the Jersey City layout. The Aussie also comes into the week fresh off his best performance of the year in last week's Wyndham Championship, an event that he should've won, but ultimately settled for a share of second place. While there might be some emotional hangover after last week's close call, it was Scotty's best outing in nearly six months from a statistical perspective.
The sweet swinger's normally-terrific irons have been mysteriously missing this year, but he gained a massive 6.9 strokes on Approach at Sedgefield (his best mark since the Honda in March), while also gaining 9.4 strokes T2G and finishing in the plus column in every major strokes gained category. Much will be made of his short miss in the playoff last week, but Scott has actually been excellent on the greens this year and has gained strokes putting in each of his last seven starts. That solid work with the flatstick, coupled with his trending ball-striking numbers and track record at Liberty National, makes him a top-notch DFS option this week.
The Ponies
Jordan Spieth
Notable Course History: T6 ('19), T19 ('13 - The Barclays)
DraftKings Price: $10,800 FanDuel Price: $11,900
After dropping out of the game's "elite" category for a couple of years, Jordan Spieth has stormed his way back into the conversation in 2021. Spieth has truly been a statistical marvel since finding his form early in the year. Over the last 50 rounds he grades out first in this Northern Trust field in both SG: Total and DraftKings points scored. The Texan narrowly missed capping his return to form off with a major at the Open Championship, but I imagine that $15 million and a FedEx Cup title would be a nice consolation prize. He's been rock solid in his two previous stroke-play starts at Liberty National, posting a T6 (while in horrible form) in 2019 and a T19 in the 2013 Barclays. Spieth also performed well as a member of the 2017 U.S. President's Cup team with a record of 3-1-1 over the course of the competition.
Rory McIlroy
Notable Course History: T6 ('19), T19 ('13 - The Barclays)
DraftKings Price: $10,000 FanDuel Price: $11,400
I didn't plan this out, but Rory McIlroy randomly has the exact same Liberty National track record as Jordan Spieth, posting a T6 in the 2019 Northern Trust and a T19 at the 2013 Barclays. It's no surprise that Rory has notched good outings at LNGC, as the cream tends to rise to the top both at this golf course and in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. McIlroy continues to tantalize us with supreme ball striking and horrible putting, as a bad opening round and so-so T12 finish in his most recent start at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude don't paint a full picture of just how well he hit the ball in Memphis. He gained an eye-popping 5.9 strokes OTT, as well as a massive 6.5 strokes on Approach at St. Jude, but was once again derailed by a balky short game. McIlroy has now gained strokes T2G, OTT, and on Approach in each of his last six starts. This Liberty National layout caters to supreme ball striking and with his recent tee-to-green form, Rory appears to be just a hot putting week away from a victory.
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Webb Simpson
Notable Course History: T18 ('19), T15 ('13 - The Barclays)
DraftKings Price: $8,900 FanDuel Price: $10,300
It's not a shock to find that Webb Simpson has been a "Steady Eddie" on this golf course, as he seemingly has a consistently great track record at every course on the schedule. Simpson has gone T18-T15 over two starts at Liberty National and comes into this year's Northern Trust fresh off his best statistical iron performance of 2021. He gained a ridiculous 8.5 strokes on Approach at Sedgefield and ultimately fell just one shot shy of the massive playoff. After an underwhelming summer, Webb appears to be trending in the right direction just in time for the Playoffs and has steadily improved his finishing position in each of his last three starts.
Jason Kokrak
Notable Course History: T12 ('19), T9 ('13 - The Barclays)
DraftKings Price: $7,700 FanDuel Price: $9,100
All of the aforementioned Horses this week head to Liberty National with both solid course history and trending form on their side. Jason Kokrak checks just one of those boxes. He's played well in previous trips to LNGC, but his recent production hasn't been great. Kokrak has lost strokes T2G in each of his last two starts and comes in on the heels of a missed cut last week at the Wyndham. Thanks to those underwhelming performances, the hope is that we can catch folks sleeping on the big guy this week in GPPs, as his long-term form, which includes a win earlier this year at the Charles Schwab Challenge, indicates that a turnaround is possible. You'll see a lot of course comparisons to Shadow Creek this week and Kokrak flexed his muscles on the Las Vegas track last year en route to a victory against an elite field in the CJ Cup.
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