RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series is in Kansas on Sunday for the Hollywood Casino 400. Earlier this season, Kyle Larson beat Chris Buescher to the line by a hair in the closest finish in Cup Series history in the first visit of the season to Kansas Speedway.
This race starts the Round of 12. Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, and Harrison Burton were eliminated at the end of the Round of 16, and Larson enters the Round of 12 as the current points leader.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Hollywood Casino 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 9/29/2024 at 3:03 p.m. EDT. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on X at @juscarts.
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Kyle Larson
Starts 11th - DK: $11.5K, FD: $14.0K
The last time we were here, Kyle Larson beat Chris Buescher to the line by about the smallest amount you could beat another driver by:
What a weekend for photo finishes!
Kyle Larson just beat Chris Buescher at Kansas Speedway in the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history.
The official winning margin: .001 seconds.pic.twitter.com/Swzn7pe5cg
— Kendall Baker (@kendallbaker) May 6, 2024
Larson led 63 laps in the victory, marking the seventh time in his last eight races here that Larson has led at least 29 laps. In 2021, Larson finished 19th in his first race here for Hendrick Motorsports, but he led 132 laps in the race, so the finish wasn't for lack of trying.
Since then, Larson has two wins and two second places at the track, with his first finish in that span being an eighth in 2022. Last weekend, Larson dominated at Bristol—can he make it two weeks in a row?
Chase Elliott
Starts 38th - DK: $10.0K, FD: $11.5K
Here's the chalk play of the weekend. Chase Elliott had an engine issue on Saturday and will be starting Sunday's race from the back because of it, giving the former Cup Series champion a ton of place differential upside.
And that's not even factoring in how well he runs at Kansas. In 17 Cup Series starts at this track, Elliott has a win and 11 top 10s, with an average finish of 10.2. This has been a good track for him, which includes a third-place finish when the series was here earlier in the year.
Assuming this No. 9 team doesn't have more mechanical issues on Sunday, Elliott should be able to move significantly forward in this field.
Bubba Wallace
Starts 13th - DK: $9.0K, FD: $8.2K
Bubba Wallace has run well at Kansas in this Next Gen car, winning the 2022 fall race at the track. Last year, he led laps in both races here, though he ran into some issues in the second race and finished just 32nd.
Wallace didn't continue that prowess in May as he finished just 17th here, but I'm going to bet on his overall track record here over the one-race sample from this season.
Last weekend in Bristol, Wallace posted his best finish of the season, coming in third in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
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Josh Berry
Starts 29th - DK: $6.9K, FD: $6.2K
Josh Berry comes into this race with an average finish that's 3.1 points worse than his average start. Averaging negative place differential is never great, but it's something that we can probably ignore this weekend since Berry starts back in 29th.
In fact, Berry has started 26th or worse 12 times this season and has neutral or positive place differential in 10 of those races. There should be some PD upside out of this No. 4 car on Sunday.
Berry finished 15th in the first Kansas race. He also has two top 10s in three Xfinity Series starts at the track. Berry's not the most exciting play, but he can help you get it done.
Justin Haley
Starts 23rd - DK: $6.4K, FD: $6.0K
We got a rare NASCAR trade here as Justin Haley and Corey LaJoie have swapped rides. Haley has been impressive for Rick Ware Racing this year, but now he gets a chance in a Spire No. 7 car that should have more consistent speed than the RWR No. 51 car had.
Got to be odd for Corey Lajoie and Justin Haley
Corey can see his old ride through his winshield
Justin can see his old ride through his backshield pic.twitter.com/aip7W95RDj— Colby Evans (@StartAndParkCar) September 28, 2024
Haley delivered a strong 18th-place run here in May, a performance that anyone with him in their DFS lineups had to love considering he started 35th.
Provided he's able to quickly get up to speed with his new team, Haley should be contending for top 15s on a regular basis, something that was only sometimes possible at RWR.
Todd Gilliland
Starts 33rd - DK: $6.0K, FD: $5.0K
I love the value here. Todd Gilliland's car showed no speed in qualifying, but that's kind of a familiar story. This will be his third time in the last five races to start outside the top 30.
But what happened in the first two? Gilliland kept the car clean and steadily moved forward, posting top 20s in both races. In fact, of the nine times he's started 31st or worse this year, Gilliland has a top 20 five times.
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