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The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs heads to Kansas Speedway this weekend, for the middle race in the Round of 8. Expect your same suspects up front.
Kyle Larson has dominated mile-and-a-halves this season, including a stomping last weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. Now, Larson has locked himself into the Championship 4 race at Phoenix Raceway in two weeks. That No. 5 team will be dangerous, having an additional two weeks to focus solely on one car.
As for the remaining seven playoff drivers, it's shaping up to be a fantastic battle. By blowing an engine for the first time in over seven years, Joey Logano is in a must-win scenario, something he did just last year at Kansas to look himself into the championship race. Martin Truex Jr. is on the verge of having to win, via a late-race wreck at Texas. Meanwhile, the other five drivers are separated by just 24 points. Buckle up, the next two weeks will be fun.
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Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles, rankings and and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. Just a reminder, qualifying isn't until Sunday morning at 9:00 a.m. ET, just four hours before the scheduled green flag.
Kyle Larson
(DraftKings $11,700 | FanDuel $14,500 | DK SportsBook +240)
Before we speak about the obvious and why Kyle Larson needs to be in your lineup this weekend, it's worth noting that most top drivers are rather expensive this weekend. And via the qualifying metrics, the majority start at the front of the field. In fact, all eight playoff drivers are among the 11 most expensive drivers in the field, with Joey Logano being ranked last of those drivers, still a hefty $8,700. However, Logano is the defending winner of the event and is in a must-win scenario, so maybe he isn't such a bad choice.
But the correct choice is Larson. Look, the No. 5 Chevrolet has been untouchable on 1.5-mile tracks this season. Four of Larson's eight wins this season have come on intermediate racetracks; he's also set the record for most laps ever led in a single season on 1.5-mile tracks, which included 132 at Kansas in May.
Larson has nothing to race for this weekend, having won last week at Texas. But that's not going to stop the No. 5 team from trying to pick up its ninth win of the season. Larson is motivated and I'd expect him to be out front a lot come Sunday afternoon.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +550)
If you want to go out on a bit of a limb (it's not really a limb, given he would be tied with Larson for the championship lead for the duration of the season), Denny Hamlin isn't a bad choice. Both of the victories for the No. 11 team this year have come on intermediates, including Las Vegas, a similar layout to Kansas.
Hamlin overcame a pair of late-race issues at Texas last weekend, salvaging an 11th-place finish. He enters Kansas nine points above the cutline, and needs a solid points day to remain in the top four heading to Martinsville.
But over the last handful of years, Hamlin has been particularly sporty at Kansas. He won consecutive races at the track between 2019 and 2020, and has led at least 57 laps in three of the last four races. Earlier this year, he finished a mediocre 12th. Of the playoff drivers, however, Hamlin is a good choice this weekend starting sixth. If you want to go big at the top of your lineup this weekend, you can't get much better than the pairing of Larson and Hamlin. If you do, though, you'll definitely pay of it on the back half.
Kyle Busch
(DraftKings $10,700 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +600)
If you want to base your Kansas lineup off recent success at the track, look no further than Kyle Busch. Sure, helped by a late-race restart, the No. 18 Toyota won the May race at the track, but a win's a win, no matter how it happened.
Another thing to consider, Busch has been very good on mile-and-a-halves this season. The No. 18 team might not have the wins to back it up, but outside of Hendrick Motorsports, one could argue Busch has been the most consistent on intermediates this season. Throw last week at Texas out the window -- Busch wasn't happy with how his car handled -- as it's a totally different layout from Kansas.
Prior to 2015, I would have said avoid Busch at Kansas at all costs: It was by far his worst oval track on the circuit. But in his last 13 starts at the track, the Las Vegas driver has a pair of victories and nine top-five efforts. He will start fourth on Sunday.
Alex Bowman
(DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $9,000 | DK SportsBook +3000)
Alex Bowman will tell you himself, he's had a playoffs from hell. It seems like every week he's caught up in something not of his own doing. Last week, it was Bubba Wallace's spin on lap 32, triggering a 15-car pileup.
But that's good for you. Why? Hendrick Motorsports is far and above the class of the field on 1.5-mile layouts, and Bowman will lineup 25th on Sunday. That means, there's a lot of points to be gained ahead of the No. 48 Chevrolet.
Since joining HMS, Bowman has been solid at Kansas -- and really all worn-out track surfaces, including wins at Chicagoland and Auto Club. Kansas, too, has a track surface that is wearing, and he finished third in this race one season ago. Bowman needs a good run in order to stay out of the basement of the 16 teams that made the playoffs.
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William Byron
(DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $11,500| DK SportsBook +900)
William Byron might not have the results one would hope for in the postseason, but that No. 24 Chevrolet has been bad fast. That includes his runner-up finish last weekend, where he was the only driver that could consistently challenge Larson.
Currently sitting 13th in points, Byron is within 15 points of cracking the top 10 -- which isn't a small feat at the Cup level. Like Bowman, the best thing Byron has going for him this weekend is he drives for HMS, which is the class of the field on Kansas-type tracks. Quite frankly, it wouldn't surprise me to see Byron in victory lane, playing spoiler on the playoff field.
In seven career starts at Kanas, Byron has been quite consistent. He rides a four-race top-10 streak at the track entering Sunday's 400-miler, in which he will take the green flag in ninth.
Tyler Reddick
(DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $9,200 | DK SportsBook +2200)
Someone that isn't going to receive a Christmas card from Byron is Tyler Reddick. But as he's proven over the last handful of years in NASCAR, he's here to do one thing: Go fast and run as hard as possible.
Theoretically, Kansas is a track that should fall right into Reddick's wheelhouse. The ability to ride the wall is an option, which the No. 8 car does the best in the Cup Series. On paper, though, the two-time Xfinity Series champion has been inconsistent in just four Cup starts at the track. He does, though, have a pair of top 10s, which is enticing.
But also, Reddick has been ultra consistent over the last handful of months. Weekly, the No. 8 team is running inside the top 10, entering Kansas with 16 on the season (the most for a Richard Childress Racing driver since 2014, Ryan Newman). The possibility of a win is there, as Reddick has spent time towards the front of the field the last two weeks. With 22-1 odds of winning, this is your underdog. Reddick will start ninth.
Daniel Suarez
(DraftKings $6,400 | FanDuel $7,000 | DK SportsBook +10000)
If you want to discuss real underdogs, Daniel Suarez fits the bill perfectly. His first-year Trackhouse Racing organization is coming off its fourth top-10 finish of the season at Texas.
Another thing to consider, Suarez has shown speed at certain intermediates this season. During the spring Atlanta race, the No. 99 car was on pace to finish inside the top 10, but a late pit road penalty derailed that. He also finished seventh at Nashville, and has three straight top-15 results at intermediates entering Kansas.
It will be a battle for Suarez to earn a top 10, which might be what you need to earn positive points with the No. 99 Chevrolet starting 16th. If you're going to go big at the top of your lineup, you'll need to fight your battles late. There are worse picks than Suarez.
Ryan Preece
(DraftKings $5,700 | FanDuel $5,000 | DK SportsBook +35000)
Compared to last year, Ryan Preece is having a much better season. In some aspects, he's having a career year, having scored four top-10 finishes, the most he's earned in a single season for JTG Daugherty Racing.
Meanwhile, Preece still ranks 26th in points, the same position he ended his rookie campaign in. He's also never finished inside the top 10 on an intermediate racetrack in Cup.
Like Suarez, though, you'll need to fight your battles on the back half of your lineup this weekend. And with Preece taking the green flag in 32nd, there are worse selections you could make. For the price this late in the lineup, he's probably the best bang for your buck.
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