RADIO
Eric Samulski evaluates the biggest risers in barrel rate early in 2021 to find out which hitters could be a solid source of home runs going forward.
Lately, I've been focusing a lot on barrels when trying to evaluate which hitters are off to the most note-worthy starts. I recently covered Blast Rate, which is a sub-section of barrels that aims to tell us who is making the "best" good contact. Today, we'll focus on who has shown the best growth in barrel rate from 2020 to 2021. Before we dive in, I want to explain the reason why we should care about these numbers.
For starters, barrel rate stabilizes after 50 batted ball events (BBE), so this is one of the earliest metrics that can be termed valid strictly from an analytical perspective. We should also care because to me barrels are more valuable than any of the predictive metrics. It's great to say that somebody has this xSLG or that xISO, but just because the metrics think they should be hitting for certain percentages, doesn't mean they will. However, barrel rate tells me what a hitter is actually doing: hitting the ball hard at the best angles for success. If they are doing that more than in years past, there's a good chance they are seeing the ball better.
Now can we get into the numbers. Below I've posted two charts from Statcast, both showing the leaders in barrel rate improvement from 2020-2021. I've split them up into the top-20 and then hitters ranked 21-40. I will add some tidbits of analysis to names I think are particularly interesting, but I wanted to keep the full charts on here for you to have all the information. Charts updated as of May 19.
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Barrel Risers
Tyler O'Neill - OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Tyler O'Neil also showed up in the Blast Rate article I linked to above. He's certainly hitting the ball hard, and we know that he has a power-speed combo that many fantasy managers drool over. However, O'Neill has seen his strikeout rate jump back up to 32.7% and his walk rate plummet to only 2.8%. 2.8%!!!
His chase rate has also jumped up eight points to 34.7%, so his swing-and-miss tendencies haven't gone anywhere. I would expect his .293 BABIP to come back down a bit and don't think this is a new level for O'Neill. He still has the same blend of raw power and frustrating plate discipline. Buy in if you need the HRs and RBIs, but expect a poor average and some tough weeks.
Austin Hays - OF, Baltimore Orioles
If only Hays could stay healthy. The young Orioles prospect has been relatively good in his MLB experience, but he made another trip to the IL this season, this time with a hamstring injury. However, he's on this list because he's hitting the ball well. His K% is up slightly, but he's actually swinging outside of the zone less (he's just swinging bit less overall), so I'm not really worried.
We also know how the balls flies in Camden when the weather gets hot, so if Hays continues to make this kind of contact, you could see a pretty strong summer for the 25-year-old, especially as the Orioles offense gets a boost with the return of Anthony Santander.
Avisail Garcia - OF, Milwaukee Brewers
This is just a friendly reminder that Avisail is really good at baseball. He never has seemed to get the attention he deserves, but he is a surprisingly great athlete for a man of his size, and he hits the baseball really hard.
He's 22nd in the league in hard hit% and 42nd with the above barrel rate. Everybody was concerned about the crowded Brewers outfield, but they can't all seem to stay healthy, so why should we expect Garcia to start sitting?
Austin Meadows - OF, Tampa Bay Rays
The bounce back hasn't fully happened yet, but I remain confident that it will. Despite the fact that Meadows has nine HRs, he's only hitting .218, so I know there are a few disgruntled owners out there. However, look at the barrel rate above; it's right in line with 2019.
His K% is also back closer to his 2019 rate and his chase rate is actually lower than it was two years ago, but he kept his BB% gains. I'd love to see him pull the ball more, but the power is already on display and the batting average is going to start creeping up. If there was a buying opportunity, it may be slowly inching closed.
Jonathan Villar - 2B/3B/OF, New York Mets
I bemoaned the Mets' signing of Villar over the offseason because I didn't think he really added much to their team. They had poor infield defense, and he was a poor infield defender. They signed Kevin Pillar for speed off the bench, so Villar felt redundant. Then J.D. Davis, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto all found themselves on the IL and Villar was thrust into regular playing time.
We know he earns his fantasy value with his legs, but his barrel rate is the best of his career. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, but he is not forcing his way into the lineup when those guys are all healthy. He still has 8th-percentile exit velocity, 4th-percentile hard hit%, and a 23rd-percentile whiff rate. The barrel metrics are great for Villar, but he is still below league-average as a hitter.
Jacob Stallings - C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stallings is easily the least sexy name on this list, but for those playing in two catcher leagues, his name here should be greeted with big smiles. Stallings is one of the few catchers in the league who really isn't in a true timeshare, which means he has the plate appearances to be an asset in those kinds of deep formats.
The fact that he's already matched last year's HR total tells us that the hard hits are starting to make a difference on the stat sheet. Considering he has also dropped his K% to 20.2% and upped his BB% to 14.3%, you're getting a catcher who is making more contact and hitting the ball harder when he does. There's not much else you can ask for in two catcher leagues.
Paul DeJong- SS, St. Louis Cardinals
DeJong also made the Blast Rate leaderboard, so I wanted to point him out here even though he's currently on the IL with an oblique injury. I know those injuries can linger and may impact his swing when he comes back, but he's a guy I thought was headed for a hot streak, so keep an eye on his return.
Rowdy Tellez - 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Honestly, I have no idea what to make of Tellez. He hits the ball incredibly hard. He's 98th-percentile in exit velocity and 97th-percentile in HardHit%. He also doesn't strikeout a whole lot with a 22.5% strikeout rate, but he's also only hitting .188 and was already sent down for performance this year.
Everything tells us that the hits should start falling and he should be getting loud results, so maybe you can stash him on your bench if you're in deeper leagues. Considering his playing time is inconsistent and he's hitting near the bottom of the order when he's in the lineup, I'm simply keeping him on my watch lists.
Willy Adames - SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Willy Adames is crushing the ball. Seriously. He's 14th in the league in barrel rate and 47th in HardHit%. However, his exit velocity hasn't really changed, and his launch angle has raised to an aggressive 22.3-degrees. That's not what we want to see from a guy that isn't a true power hitter and is why his HR/FB% is at a career-low despite having a career-high fly ball rate. He's not driving the ball to the outfield.
He's popping it up. Part of that might also have to do with his batted ball rates to center field being at a career-high as well, which means he's frequently hitting the ball to the deepest part of the park. His launch angle has been trending down of late, which has corresponded to a bit of a hot streak and made him a useful waiver add for those looking for middle infield help. The bad news is that we all know that there's somebody lurking in the distance to take his job sometime this summer.
David Bote - 2B/3B, Chicago Cubs
This might be the most surprising name on this list. Bote is hitting .193 on the season and .206 over the last two weeks. He has only three HRs so far this year, yet he has 91st-percentile barrel rates and max exit velocities. He's also pulling the ball more, hitting the ball in the air more, and has the same amount of soft and hard contact as years past. So what the hell is up? A component of it may be the launch angle.
Bote never had an ideal launch angle, but he's sitting at 6.7-degrees right now, which is not ideal for driving the baseball. His chase rate is also up almost 10% while his contact rates on pitches out of the zone have stayed the same, which also tells me that he may be making contact on bad pitches, which doesn't allow for him to drive the ball as frequently. Regardless, I am not buying into this. I am adding Bote to my watch lists to see if he can make some adjustments to his approach and start making better use of his hard contact though.
Robbie Grossman - OF, Detroit Tigers
Grossman struggled out of the gates this season, but he has begun to heat up of late, hitting .247 with three HR, 15 Runs, 14 RBI, and five stolen bases over the last month. That's pretty much in line with what many people were hoping for him heading into the season. He plays in a big park so the home run totals aren't going to be exceptionally high, but he has good wheels and hits leadoff, so he should score some runs and steal some bases.
His overall barrel rate puts him 63rd in the league, and his HardHit% has him 84th, so it's not as if he's crushing the ball. The barrel rate increase is further indication that the improvements we saw last year should stick and what we expected from Grossman as a high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy option this year was not out of bounds.
Justin Upton - OF, Los Angeles Angels
Upton is available in tons of Yahoo leagues, but he can still be useful for fantasy managers. Yes, he's a bit of a batting average drain at this stage of his career and his BB% isn't as high as it was back in 2017 and 2018 when he was a more well-rounded player. He still hits the ball hard with 99th-percentile max exit velocity and 77th-percentile HardHit%, but his barrel rate also below where it was back in 2017 and 2018 and the pull rate has dropped, suggesting that he may not be able to get around on the ball as he often as he used to.
Still, the power remains real and his plate discipline is better than Tyler O'Neill, so if we're rushing out to roster O'Neill, we shouldn't be turning our nose up at Upton. Their batting averages will both likely settle around the .230 range, and Upton can also finish with 25-30 HR.
Brandon Belt - 1B, San Francisco Giants
I extended this list by one to sneak Belt on. He was a popular sleeper for me coming into the year, but battled foot injuries during Spring Training and got a late start to the year. Since being activated, Belt has shown that last year was no fluke. He's only hitting .233, but he has eight HRs, a 98th-percentile barrel rate and 93rd-percentile HardHit rate. He has also retained his elite 16% walk rate, thanks to a 94th-percentile chase rate.
However, he is striking out more than ever. As mentioned above, Belt is not chasing out of the zone and is simply making less contact in the zone. He has literally a decade of better zone contact rates and many almost 6% better, so I think that number will regress closer to his norm. To me, the swing change he started in 2019 has led to legit improvements in barrel rate and power, and Belt should be a strong corner infield option for the remainder of the year.
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