X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers to Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 11)

Jeremy Pena - Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Rankings, MLB DFS Picks

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to watch for Week 11 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome back to my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters article for Week 11 of the 2025 MLB season. The focus of this article is to highlight players who could be on the verge of a breakout, citing current active hitting streaks along with recent leaders in batting average and isolated power (ISO). You will also find expected batting average (xSLG) underachievers and overachievers.

In this week's edition, we'll dive into players like Ceddanne Rafaela, Junior Caminero, and Jeremy Pena. You'll not only find out who is hot at the plate, but also which hitters deserve better results based on their expected stats, or who might be on the verge of a cold spell.

Last week, Juan Soto and Ryan O'Hearn were a couple of good callouts who kept on hitting. So, let's take a closer look at our breakout watch to help your fantasy baseball teams heading into Week 11. You might find a potential waiver wire target or some worthy DFS plays!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 6/4

You read that right. 39-year-old Carlos Santana is your current hit streak leader, but I just outlined his case for being rostered in my 6 Bargain Basement Hitters article, so make sure to check that out!

(Update: Santana went 1-for-4 on Thursday, extending his streak to 14 games)

Christian Yelich (11 games)

Christian Yelich was an All-Star in 2024 for the first time since 2019 before a back injury ended his season prematurely.

The former MVP got off to a slow start this season despite hitting some home runs, slashing .184/.276/.324 with seven HR through May 21. However, since then, his bat has caught fire, going 21-for-49 (.429) with six home runs during his 11-game hit streak.

The 33-year-old can't be nabbed on the waiver wire, but can be used in DFS, particularly against RHP. He's got an .869 OPS against them (.513 vs. LHP), with 12 of his 13 home runs coming off righties.

Ceddanne Rafaela (8)

After a month of futility, Ceddanne Rafaela surely got dropped by many frustrated fantasy managers by May 3rd when he was hitting .208 with two home runs, a .260 wOBA, and a 58 wRC+.

Since then, however, the 24-year-old is hitting .297 with an .839 OPS, .362 wOBA, and a 130 wRC+. Much of that is due to his eight-game hit streak, during which time he's 14-for-34 (.412) with two doubles, four home runs, six RBI, and six runs scored.

One drawback, though, is that he hasn't stolen a base (or even attempted to) since April 30 after swiping seven in the first month. The Curacao native is still on pace to reach the bar of 19 he set last season.

With a barrel rate of 13.0 percent, he should have no problem reaching 15 home runs again, and with an xBA of .271 compared to his actual BA of .252, there could be a little more room for this streak to run.

He can be plucked from the waiver wire in about 50 percent of fantasy leagues, and has the appeal of positional versatility, able to be slotted into 2B, SS, and OF on Yahoo!.

 

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Data through 6/4, minimum 13 at-bats

I also outlined Ernie Clement and Jesus Sanchez in my 6 Bargain Basement Hitters article, so again, make sure to give it a read!

Marcus Semien (.571 BA)

Coming off a season in which he recorded a .306 wOBA and 99 wRC+, managers who drafted Marcus Semien were hoping he could get back to some semblance of the .354 wOBA, 126 wRC+ he recorded the year before.

That doesn't look like it will happen after an atrocious start, but he is hot right now. The veteran was hitting leadoff to begin the year, was dropped to the middle of the order, then down to the bottom just over a week ago.

However, since May 30, the 3x All-Star is 8-for-14 (.571) with two doubles, a home run, three RBI, six runs scored, a 4:4 BB:K, and two steals in five games.

The team has even moved him back to the middle of the order, which is another vote of confidence. But even after all that, he's still only slashing .200/.290/.271 for the year.

His contact rate is down considerably year-over-year, and his strikeout rate has spiked to 21.6 percent from 14.6 percent, along with a noticeable increase in swinging-strike rate, which is cause for concern long-term.

But chase rate and hard-hit rate are stable, while his barrel rate has increased by 1.5 percent. Together with an xBA of .245, there are reasons to believe he can keep this up in the short term.

(Update: Semien went 3-for-4 with two home runs on Thursday)

Tyler Freeman (.500 BA)

Tyler Freeman was getting only sporadic playing time to start the year before an oblique strain shelved him from mid-April to mid-May.

The right-handed hitter had a three-hit game on May 20, perhaps a precursor of things to come, but was still not getting regular playing time.

That has changed in the last week, though, as the 26-year-old has started four straight games for the Rockies, including once at DH, so they are actively keeping his bat in the lineup.

He's made the most of the opportunity, going 8-for-16 over the past week (five games) with a double, a home run, three RBI, three runs scored, and a stolen base.

He also didn't strike out once over that stretch, owning just a 14.5 percent strikeout rate for his career, and has posted a superb 91.3 percent contact rate in 2025.

The 5-foot-11 slugger eligible at SS and OF is sparsely rostered, but if he can continue to earn regular at-bats, he could be a sneaky double-digit homer and stolen base guy when it's all said and done. If not, cut him loose.

 

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Data through 6/4, minimum 13 at-bats

Before we get into the two players below, take a mental note of the bottom three who were on a power binge over the past week. Addison Barger? Yep, also in the 6 Bargain Basement Hitters article.

Max Muncy (.750 ISO)

We won't spend much time on Max Muncy (of the Dodgers), we know his specialty is smacking big flies, and when he does, it's usually in bunches.

That is what is going on right now. Through the first 39 games of the season, Muncy had just one home run. In the 19 games since, the left-handed slugger has whacked eight out of the yard, including a pair of multi-homer games recently.

If you use him in season-long fantasy or DFS, make sure he's going against a righty. He's slashing .085/.185/.106 against LHP, compared to .273/.399/.532 against RHP, which includes all nine of his home runs this year.

Junior Caminero (.625 ISO)

Junior Caminero displayed prolific power in the minors, and now we're seeing it nightly in the majors. He didn't exactly start slow this year, but there was an 18-game lull from April 30 to May 23 where he hit .191 (13-for-68) with just three extra base hits.

Then we began to see extra-base hits coming more frequently and with strong exit velocities, so much so that he was included in this very article last week. I mentioned, "he's got top-of-the-scale power, so look out, a power surge in the form of home runs could be coming."

That article was published the morning of May 29, and since then, throughout six games, the 21-year-old has gone 8-for-24 (.333) with three doubles and four home runs (not to mention 12 RBI, eight runs scored, and a stolen base).

The 6-foot-1 Dominican has the fastest bat speed in the majors, and if you aren't sure whether or not that means he'll continue to hit for power, look at the company he keeps, according to the below chart from Baseball Savant.

One last interesting and notable nugget: he has reverse splits against LHP and RHP. Against lefties, he owns a .668 OPS, .286 wOBA, and 86 wRC+, while he's posted an .852 OPS, .364 wOBA, and 141 wRC+ against righties. Deploy in DFS accordingly.

(Update: Caminero went 2-for-4 with another home run on Thursday)

 

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 6/4

Daniel Schneemann (three SBs)

You might not know it, but Daniel Schneemann hit .316 (25-for-79) over a 28-game stretch from mid-April to mid-May, which included five doubles and five home runs (but zero stolen bases).

Then he went into a 3-for-23 (.130) slump, although it came with one homer (and one steal). Over the last four games, however, the 28-year-old has had a three-hit game, which included two doubles, and he's stolen three bases over the previous four contests.

He showed some base-stealing chops in the minors, with 37 steals between 2022 and 2023, so maybe there is something to this.

If the three-hit game is 1) a sign he's breaking out of his slump, and 2) he can hit for extra bases, and 3) he can steal bases, all while 4) having positional eligibility at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF on Yahoo!, then you 5) have yourself a solid waiver wire pickup!

Jeremy Pena (three SBs)

I'll try to keep this one brief. Jeremy Pena was listed in the "Hit Streak Leaders" graphic above, just outside the players shown in both the "Highest Batting Average" and "Highest ISO" graphics, and is on this list regarding steals.

So, right now he's hitting, doing it consistently, adding a bit of power along the way, and stealing bases. What more can you ask for??

(Update: Pena went 3-for-5 with a double and another stolen base on Thursday)

 

xSLG Underachiever

Data through 6/4 

Bryan Reynolds (.372 vs. .517)

I put Bryan Reynolds in my Week 8 article as an underachiever, and well, according to the numbers, he's still underachieving. However, that article was published on May 16, and guess what? Since then, the switch-hitter is 21-for-59 (.356) with a .559 SLG and .203 ISO.

Back then, he had a .253 wOBA and 55 wRC+, which have increased to .299 and 87, respectively. With a career wOBA of .348 and wRC+ of 118, there is still room to improve. But after such a hot streak, can he?

He's on this list because his expected stats say he should be faring better than his actual stats indicate. Looking at peripheral stats, his chase rate is at a career low, while his contact, swinging-strike, barrel, and hard-hit rates are all a couple of percentage points better than last season, yet he is hitting .235 with a .677 OPS.

The peripherals are backing up the fact that his actual numbers should be better, and if you don't know Reynolds' career history in June, then check out the following table:

There are plenty of reasons to believe the 2x All-Star's recent hot stretch has legs.

 

xSLG Overachiever

Data through 6/4

Luis Arraez (.406 vs. .342)

I wrote up Jacob Wilson last week and said it felt like he could keep hitting for decent power. With Luis Arraez, I'm not so sure.

It's not like he has a ton of extra base hits, with 12 doubles, three triples, and three home runs, but that puts him on pace for 34/9/9 in those categories. That amount of doubles wouldn't be out of the ordinary, as he hit 32 of them last season.

But he hit just three triples and four home runs all of last year in 672 plate appearances, so he's about to surpass both of those with only about a third of the season played.

Hitting nine triples and nine home runs in a season for a guy who is the best in the game at putting the bat on the ball doesn't seem unthinkable, but then you realize he's got the slowest bat speed in all of baseball and a 0.5 percent barrel rate, and it becomes understandable why the numbers are saying he's overachieving here.

It feels somewhat reminiscent of last season when a similar hitter in Steven Kwan got off to a hot start and was pacing for around 20 home runs, but ultimately ended with 14 (partly due to missed time, but you get the point).

Fantasy managers didn't draft Arraez for power anyway, so just don't expect anything more than doubles from the three-time batting champ from here on out, and you won't be disappointed.

More Fantasy Baseball Advice



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!






POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
Cole Custer

an Easy DFS Fade at Atlanta
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
David Starr

Ridiculously Off Pace at Atlanta
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NHL

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer with No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
MLB

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Jeremy Peña

Imaging Negative on Jeremy Pena's Ribs on Friday
Spencer Steer

Slugs Three Home Runs in Win
Ace Bailey

to Report to Utah on Saturday
Sonny Gray

Tosses Complete-Game Shutout
Justin Edwards

Sixers Agree on a New Contract
Naz Reid

Agrees to a New Contract with Minnesota
Hunter Goodman

Dealing With Hamstring Soreness
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Returns Against Marlins
Wyatt Langford

Rangers to Place Wyatt Langford on Injured List
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Now in Friday's Lineup
Wyatt Langford

Out With Strained Oblique
Luis Robert Jr.

Out on Friday
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Not in Friday's Lineup
Xander Bogaerts

Back in Lineup on Friday
Griffin Canning

Done for the Year With Ruptured Achilles
Jae'Sean Tate

Rockets Want to Bring Back Jae'Sean Tate
Andre Drummond

Accepts Player Option
Cal Raleigh

Added to Home Run Derby Field
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Won't Start on Friday
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
James Pearce Jr.

Impressing the Falcons
Jaxson Dart

has "Excellent" Spring
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Should Play Vs. BoSox
Donovan Jackson

has Inside Track on Starting Job
Spencer Jones

Promoted to Triple-A
Matthew Golden

Appears Set for Significant Role
Derrick Harmon

in Line to Start
Jahdae Barron

Primarily Working at Cornerback
Cleveland Cavaliers

Tyrese Proctor Selected by Cavaliers With the No. 49 Pick
Portland Trail Blazers

Caleb Love Lands with Trail Blazers
Dallas Mavericks

Ryan Nembhard Signs a Two-Way Deal with Mavericks
Orlando Magic

Noah Penda Drafted and Traded to the Magic
Phoenix Suns

Rasheer Fleming Taken With the First Pick of the Second Round
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Josh Giddey

Receives Qualifying Offer from Chicago
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Andre Szmyt

Browns Sign Andre Szmyt to One-Year Deal
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Wilfried Pene

Patriots Waive Wilfried Pene
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Aaron Rodgers

Lauds DK Metcalf as "Big Reason" Behind Move to Pittsburgh
Emeka Egbuka

to Have Big Role in the Offense
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Grey Zabel

in Line to Start at Left Guard
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Shemar Stewart

Bengals Still High on Shemar Stewart
SJ

Sharks Buying Out Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Jamie Benn

Stays in Dallas on One-Year Deal
Reilly Smith

Signs New One-Year Deal with Vegas
Michael Kesselring

Traded to Sabres
Josh Doan

Moves to Buffalo
JJ Peterka

Mammoth Acquire JJ Peterka
Evander Kane

Traded to Canucks
Miami Heat

Miami Selects Guard Kasparas Jakucionis
Brooklyn Nets

Brooklyn Takes Nolan Traore in the First Round
Utah Jazz

Walter Clayton Jr. Heading to Utah
Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Drafts Joan Beringer
Portland Trail Blazers

Yang Hansen Drafted by Portland
Oklahoma City Thunder

Thomas Sorber Selected by Thunder
San Antonio Spurs

Carter Bryant Lands in San Antonio
New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Acquires No. 13 Overall Pick Derik Queen From Atlanta
Chicago Bulls

Noa Essengue Drafted by Chicago
Memphis Grizzlies

Cedric Coward Drafted by Portland, Traded to Memphis
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
Ryan Poehling

Becomes a Duck
Trevor Zegras

Moves to Philadelphia
Andre Burakovsky

Traded to Blackhawks
Fabian Zetterlund

Remains in Ottawa on Three-Year Deal
Matt Duchene

Signs Four-Year Extension
Jonathan Toews

to Sign with Jets
Ryan Blaney

Drives Through the Field Twice Despite Failing Cool Suit to Finish Third
William Byron

Poor Strategy Ruins William Byron's Strong Run
Kyle Larson

Decent Pocono Run Allows Him to Make Up Some of his Points Deficit
John Hunter Nemechek

Earns Another Sixth-Place Finish in One of His Best Career Races
Jamahal Hill

Gets Dominated At UFC Azerbaijan
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Dominates At UFC Azerbaijan
Rafael Fiziev

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ignacio Bahamondes

Drops Decision At UFC Azerbaijan
Curtis Blaydes

Gets Split-Decision Win at UFC Azerbaijan
Curtis Blaydes

Rizvan Kuniev Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
Denny Hamlin

Falls Short of Victory At Pocono
Chase Elliott

Continues his 2025 Consistency with A Top-Five Run at Pocono
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace's Difficult Weekend Ends with A Tire Failure at Pocono
Chris Buescher

Finishes Well at Pocono with A Solid Top-Five Finish
Tofiq Musayev

Submitted In His UFC Debut
Myktybek Orolbai

Scores First-Round Submission
Nikolas Motta

Gets Finished After Back-And-Forth Fight
Nazim Sadykhov

Scores Second-Round TKO
Bogdan Grad

Drops Decision
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Notch Yet Another Pocono Win
Ryan Blaney

Qualifies 20th but Should Contend at Pocono
William Byron

the Chalk DFS Play at Pocono After Wrecking in Qualifying
Joey Logano

Is Better Than Recent Pocono Record Suggests
Chris Buescher

Looking for Legitimate Pocono Win This Time
Brad Keselowski

Should Be Strong at Pocono This Weekend
Josh Berry

a Safe DFS Option at Pocono After Diffuser Issue
Erik Jones

Is Good at Pocono
Noah Gragson

is a DFS Pivot Option at Pocono
Austin Dillon

is Respectable at Pocono
John Hunter Nemechek

Should Be Avoided in DFS
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF