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The annual All-Star break offers fantasy baseball managers a great chance to assess and revamp their rosters for the stretch run. With both the fantasy and real-life trade deadlines looming, this stage of the season signifies one of the last key opportunities to make a potentially league-winning swap.
My name is Tommy Bell, and I'll use this article to outline three big-name fantasy baseball hitters in a potential "buy-low" position. We'll take a deeper look at their underlying analytics from previous seasons and the first half of this season to attempt to predict whether or not a bounce back is coming for the remainder of July, August, and September.
Clearly all three hitters have not lived up to their hype yet, but that could provide an opportunity for fantasy managers to add a rest-of-season stud to their team for a good price. Let's dive in to see if any of these three hitters are worth buying while the opportunity presents itself.
Top Fantasy Baseball Buy-Low Candidates
Julio Rodriguez - OF, Seattle Mariners
In his first two years at the MLB level, Rodriguez' HR/FB percentage hovered around 20%. Through 97 games this season, he's sitting at 12.7%. As a result, the right-handed power threat has gone deep just 10 times at the All-Star break. Fantasy managers DEFINITELY didn't plan on that when they spent massive draft capital on the 2022 Rookie of the Year.
On top of his poor HR/FB rate, J-Rod is also striking out nearly 3% more than last season while walking less. His hard-hit percentage has dropped from 38.7% in 2023 to just 34.1% in 2024, along with 4% drop in fly-ball rate. Lastly, Rodriguez is hitting the ball to the opposite field far more frequently this season than his previous two, which typically results in less homers. It was a rough three-and-a-half months for sure.
So, is it time to give up? Or is there a buying opportunity still here?
Unfortunately, the numbers suggest something is off with Rodriguez. There have been rumors about T-Mobile Park causing issues for hitters like Teoscar Hernandez in 2023. Rodriguez's hard-hit rate is much higher on the road, but he strikes out less at home, so I'm not sure there's enough there to make a full case.
Ultimately, it appears the 23-year-old's approach needs to be adjusted. Hopefully, it's not injury related. That all being said, this kid is too young and too talented to hit 16 or 17 homers this year. It's hard to imagine a world in which he doesn't hit at least 10 more bombs the rest of the way, and maybe he figures something out in the midst of a tight division race and goes on a power tear. Expecting the average to be around .275 the rest of the way seems fair.
Julio Rodriguez has put 164 balls in play at an exit velocity over 100 MPH on fastballs since last season, most in MLB.#TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/DNzRhZ9mIn
— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) July 13, 2024
I wouldn't be willing to give up a lot for Rodriguez if I was in the top three of my league already, but I would definitely be willing to take the risk if I was on the outside looking in. The more risk you can tolerate, the more I like taking a big chance on a guy who has shown he has as high a ceiling as any hitter in MLB.
Corey Seager - SS, Texas Rangers
This one is much more straightforward. Seager is doing just fine in the power category so far. He's on pace for over 30 homers once again, but fantasy managers are surprisingly taking a hit in the batting average category as the Rangers' lefty slugger is batting just .270 on the season.
Seager is just two years removed from a .245 season, so I guess this dip isn't completely out of nowhere, but sitting well over .300 in 2020, 2021, and 2023 brought most to the conclusion that 2022 was an aberration. Now, we have to decide if we think the shortstop is in the midst of another down year, or if he'll bounce back to the .300 mark between now and the end of September.
World Series MVP @coreyseager_5 receives a warm ovation from the home crowd 👏 @Rangers pic.twitter.com/reAolgSyb3
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 16, 2024
The now-30-year-old hit the ball hard just 37.2% of the time in his awful 2022 season, and this year he's far above that at 43.7%. While that is down a tick from last year, it's certainly much more encouraging. Seager's problem this season appears to be a sizable dip in line drives, down from 20.3% to 14.6%. That could be driving the unusually low .284 BABIP compared to .336 in 2021 and .340 last year.
Ultimately, I don't see enough red flags here to be worried about Seager. The veteran hitter should be able to adjust this approach for the rest of the season and hopefully get back into a line drive groove soon. The Rangers offense should continue to improve, so the run production should continue, and the power is there. I trust Seager as a .300 hitter from this point forward, so if you can get a slight discount because of his inconsistency thus far along with the Rangers' struggles as a team, I'd confidently make a move for the home stretch.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - OF, Miami Marlins
The electric Marlins outfielder has finally stayed healthy for a full workload this season (knock on wood!), but unfortunately his power production has dropped off compared to what we came to expect from past seasons. Chisholm has remained a .250 hitter, his BB/K rate is as strong as ever, and he's on pace to steal 30 bases, but his HR/FB rate has dropped significantly, resulting in just 12 homers in 93 games this year.
The 26-year-old is hitting just as many fly balls as we've come to expect (around 35%) and his pull percentage is still strong at 43.8%, but unfortunately his hard-hit percentage has dropped over 3% down to just 30.9% on the season. That would be his lowest since 2021 if the season ended today.
The Statcast data is more promising, showing that Chisholm has barreled just as many balls this year as he did in his shortened 97-game 2023 season. For whatever reason, those barrels are carrying a bit less juice. Perhaps the lower strikeout rate and higher walk rates suggest that the lefty hitter is looking for contact a bit more this year than in the past, but when you consider his typically aggressive approach, the eye test, and the .250 average, it's tough to give that theory much credence.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. no-doubt dinger pic.twitter.com/hEm9mXSa5Y
— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) July 12, 2024
All in all, there's plenty to celebrate about Chisholm for this year, namely his ability to stay healthy and continue to steal bases. You're always going to take a bit of a hit in the batting average category, but the run production will improve a bit with a better BB/K rate. The best approach for the rest of the season may be to understand that 20 homers is the most likely finishing number for Chisholm this year, but there's still upside for 25 round-trippers if the youngster makes a power adjustment.
In the end, any team that can stomach a drop in batting average, needs a few steals, and wants to take a risk for a possible jump in power could do much worse than Chisholm. I fully condone a risk-taking move to acquire an electric hitter with a strong floor and a very high ceiling. Let's see if he can turn it on as summer turns to fall.
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