High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 9 Lineups Including Chase Brown, Caleb Williams, T.J. Hockenson, Romeo Doubs, More

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 9.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses every week, selecting new teams for you to target. It's also worth noting that the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers are on their bye, reducing the options available.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

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Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 8 kicked off with a thriller on Thursday that featured plenty of scoring and the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The game ended on a missed facemask, but it outdid the previous week. Overall scoring was much higher, which was a welcomed sight.

The passing attacks were booming with five signal-callers throwing for 300 yards and six tossing at least three touchdowns, including two of them throwing for four. It meant great things for wide receivers and offenses as a whole. 

We'd also be remiss if we didn't highlight the outlier week from the tight-end position on National Tight Ends Day. It's amazing the impact this "holiday" had on their production. 

• Detroit Lions - 52 points scored (1st)
• Buffalo Bills - 31 points scored (tied for 3rd)
• Miami Dolphins - 27 points scored (tied for 11th)
• Baltimore Ravens - 24 points scored (18th)
• Seattle Seahawks - 10 points scored (31st)

It was a mixed bag this week. We nailed the No. 1 offense, the Detroit Lions. We also identified the Bills, who finished third. The Dolphins and Ravens were okay with 27 and 24 points, respectively. However, the Seahawks struggled tremendously in the red zone, failing to come out with any points twice while settling for a field goal after 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard line.

After a season-high seven special teams or defensive touchdowns in Week 7, that dropped to just one in Week 8. Coincidentally, it came from the Lions, but they still would've led the league this week without those seven points. We'll look to kick it up a notch in Week 9.

Week 9 Offenses to Target

• Cincinnati Bengals
• Washington Commanders
• Chicago Bears
• Minnesota Vikings
• Los Angeles Rams

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place it in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

Once again, the home-road splits remain narrow. Last week featured strong outings from host teams like the Lions, Rams, Jaguars, Dolphins, Broncos, and 49ers. Meanwhile, visitors such as Kansas City, Buffalo, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Green Bay more than held their own.

It figures to be a good week for the home squads with seven of them favored by at least 3.5 points. The gap could widen after Week 9.

Since Week 2, the "above average" category in the offensive touchdowns metrics has remained between 26.83 and 27.55, demonstrating consistency. There's been a similar degree of variability within the same category in offensive yards, which has ranged from 25.76 to 27.84 during that same time.

The biggest difference is between the "below average" category and "above average" in the offensive yards metric, which is over 10 points. It helps us avoid offenses under that threshold in general.

The pace (plays per game) metric now has identical points scored for "average" and "above average." However, all three categories in this metric saw a boost from the Week 8 output. We'll continue to look for offenses running more plays.

Week 9 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals fell short against Philly, primarily because of turnovers and miscues. They also struggled to stop the run and got burnt by the Jalen Hurts tush push three times. They were missing Tee Higgins, who has been playing very well since returning from injury.

They now rank 11th in points per game at 24.38, eighth in offensive touchdowns at 2.75, and 18th in offensive yards at 325.25 on 57.38 plays per game.

Last week's loss drops them to 3-5, which puts their season in jeopardy, especially considering their long-term schedule. Fortunately, they host the Raiders, who put forth a valiant effort against the Chiefs but sit at 2-6. They've also allowed 26.3 points per game.

The obvious: Ja'Marr Chase found the end zone while leading the team in targets and receptions. Tee Higgins has a lengthy history of injuries, so it would be nice to see a full practice and no designation entering the weekend, but we'll monitor his participation. He's in your lineup if he's healthy and active.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Joe Burrow thrives when his dynamic duo is available, but he's still capable of being a quality streamer against Las Vegas without Higgins.

Player No. 2 - Chase Brown struggled to find room against the stout Philly front, totaling just 35 scrimmage yards. The negative game script favored Zack Moss, who out-snapped him by two snaps. However, Brown scored and led the backfield in touches, so he's a top-24 back.

Player No. 3 - With Higgins out, we saw Mike Gesicki emerge for the second time this year. He caught seven passes for 71 yards, which is in the realm of possibility for him in Week 9.

Offense No. 2 - Washington Commanders

The world was ready to crown the Bears with an impressive comeback victory until the Commanders pulled off an outrageous Hail Mary that would live in infamy. With three seconds remaining, Jayden Daniels scrambled and chucked the ball as far as he could. It fell short of the end zone but was tipped right to Noah Brown for a walk-off win. It adds another incredible chapter to their 2024 campaign.

Speaking of which, they've scored 29.5 points per game (fourth), 2.88 offensive touchdowns (fifth), and 396.25 offensive yards (third) on 63.13 plays per week.

Next up in their fairy-tale adventure is the New York Giants. It's a road matchup, but they enter as heavy favorites with a significantly superior offense.

The obvious: Jayden Daniels held his own against a ferocious Bears defense. The counting stats weren't there because they settled for four field goals, but he made impressive plays in clutch moments. Terry McLaurin went over 100 receiving yards with a big bomb grab for 61. He's been the focal point of the passing attack. Brian Robinson Jr. also had a tough time against Chicago, rushing for only 65 yards on 16 carries. He's in a better spot against New York.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Austin Ekeler toted the rock seven times and earned three targets. His efficiency has been notable, averaging over six yards per attempt. He's a solid flex option.

Player No. 2 - Zach Ertz has at least 68 yards or a touchdown in three consecutive weeks. He excels when the game script demands more from the passing attack, but he's always a potential streamer.

Offense No. 3 - Chicago Bears

That miraculous moment we described for Washington was also the heartbreaking loss Chicago experienced. It played from behind for over 59 minutes before scoring a late touchdown that should have sealed the victory. It's a brutal loss, but it doesn't take away from the growth we've seen from this franchise week to week.

Its offense moved the ball during the first half, getting onto the Commanders side of the field on three of the first four drives. Unfortunately, it failed to score any points. Things were looking bleak well into the third quarter before a huge touchdown run by D'Andre Swift infused life into the team.

It's easy to lose track of the momentum it has built, but it is sitting 16th in points per game with 23.29, 11th in offensive touchdowns with 2.57, 27th in offensive yards with 302.29, and seventh in plays per game with 63.86.

It'll attempt to move past this disappointing defeat by traveling to Arizona. The Cardinals played well against Miami, but still allowed 27 points, 377 offensive yards, and two offensive touchdowns. It's a great chance for the Bears to return to rhythm.

The obvious: D'Andre Swift was having a quiet day until that house-call carry. He got hot from there, racking up 129 yards on the ground with a season-high 90% running back rush share. That's four straight contests he's totaled over 100 scrimmage yards.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Caleb Williams continues to rely on his legs, rushing the ball 10 times for 41 yards. He struggled as a passer, but the matchup is better this week. He's a high-end streamer.

Player No. 2 - DJ Moore remains the alpha wide receiver, but Rome Odunze hit a season-best 28.6% target share against the Commanders in Week 8. So with Odunze and Keenan Allen taking away volume, Moore moves out of the top 20 but still has a high ceiling.

Player No. 3 - Cole Kmet was thriving heading into the bye. Although to be fair, it was mostly on the back of touchdowns. He's a tight end with a high ceiling in a good offense, so he warrants a look every week.

Offense No. 4 - Minnesota Vikings

After matching the Chiefs stride-for-stride for five weeks, the Vikings are coming off back-to-back losses. They fell short against the Lions two weeks ago and then struggled to score points in the second half last week against the Rams. While things are trending in the wrong direction in the win column, they're still a dangerous offense.

Despite the losses, they rank seventh in points per game at 26.86, ninth in offensive touchdowns at 2.57, and 19th in offensive yards at 325 on 56.71 plays per game.

Also working in their favor is a home matchup with the Colts, whose defense allows 21.5 points per game and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Additionally, the Colts are starting Joe Flacco, so they'll have a shot to keep pace. It's the ideal spot for the Vikings to get back on track, especially with their superstar tight end making his 2024 debut.

The obvious: Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones continue to be critical pieces. Jefferson was on his way to a monster day before slowing down in the second half, but still finished with eight receptions for 115 yards. Meanwhile, Jones touched the ball 21 times for 95 scrimmage yards. He was only the RB to run the ball. These two are locked in.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Sam Darnold found the end zone on the opening two drives, connecting with Josh Oliver and Trent Sherfield Sr. (much to the chagrin of fantasy managers). He cooled down after that but threw for 240 yards and those two scores. It's a great matchup, putting him back in the top 12.

Player No. 2 - One of the reasons to feel optimistic about Darnold is the return of  T.J. Hockenson. We saw what he did in this offense last year, totaling 960 yards and five touchdowns on 95 receptions across 15 games. He also earned at least eight targets in all but five contests. We'll see how quickly he gets back to his former self, but with so few reliable tight ends available, he's a streaming candidate.

Player No. 3 - Jordan Addison has been moderately productive with minimal volume this season. He had three receptions in his first four outings before catching only two last week. He put together two quality performances, but with Hockenson back in the mix, he might drop to third or fourth in the pecking order. He's more of a boom-bust flex option.

Offense No. 5 - Los Angeles Rams

The boys were back in town on Thursday. In this case, referring to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. They were active in the same game for the first time since Week 1. The results were instantaneous. They combined for 12 receptions, 157 yards, and a score. Furthermore, the Rams stayed afloat in the race for the division crown and a playoff berth by knocking off Minnesota.

Additionally, their presence opened up more opportunities and room for the running game and tertiary receivers. They're back to being an offense we want players on for fantasy.

Injuries skew their season-long data, but in last week's victory, they generated 386 offensive yards and four offensive touchdowns on 66 plays for 30 points. A matchup against Seattle on the road is next, which could be a potential shootout. The over/under is sitting at 48. Plus, Buffalo hung 31 points on it last week.

The obvious: The trio of Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp are all must-starts with things back to normal. Each one can find the end zone and clear 100 yards. Nacua was particularly impressive, earning a target on 41% of his routes run.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Matthew Stafford has long been a streamer who frequently lands in the top 12. Without all of his weapons, he wasn't usable in fantasy. However, he just threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns against one of the league's best defenses, so you can confidently put him out there against Seattle.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 9. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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