High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 10 Lineups Including Jared Goff, Mark Andrews, Brock Purdy, Justice Hill, Jonnu Smith, more

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 10 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 10.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses every week, selecting new teams for you to target. It's also worth noting that the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Seattle Seahawks are on their bye, reducing the options available.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

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Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 9 kicked off with a tale of the two halves. The first half was a low-scoring defensive grind. However, the second half was full of action, highlighted by an incredible one-handed touchdown reception by Garrett Wilson. The back and forth between passing and rushing continued with this as a running back week.

There were eight tailbacks to rush for over 100 yards and three who found the end zone multiple times as a runner. In comparison, only one signal-caller threw for over 300 yards. Although, eight tossed at least three touchdowns, many of which went to RBs.

In terms of points, it was good but not great individually, but overall, a decent output. Only four teams hit 30, while just seven were under 20.

• Cincinnati Bengals - 41 points scored (tied for 1st)
• Washington Commanders - 27 points scored (7th)
• Los Angeles Rams - 26 points scored (11th)
• Minnesota Vikings - 21 points scored (tied for 21st)
• Chicago Bears - 9 points scored (30th)

We hit big with the Bengals, who tied Baltimore for the most points. We also did alright with the Commanders and Rams, who finished in the top 10. The Vikings scored 21 points, which most weeks is pretty good, but ranked lower in Week 9.

There were five special teams and defensive touchdowns, none of which came from the five squads we highlighted. It makes the success a little more impressive. We'll aim to identify more top offenses in Week 10.

Week 10 Offenses to Target

• • Baltimore Ravens
  • Detroit Lions
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Miami Dolphins

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place it in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

The home teams returned to glory, as predicted. The six highest-scoring teams were the host teams, including the Ravens, Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Cardinals, and Eagles. Squads like the Dolphins, Rams, Chargers, and Commanders held their own as visitors, but overall there was no place like home in Week 9. Home-field advantage remains relevant. However, it could be more even in Week 10 with some quality offenses playing in their opponents' stadiums.

We've seen an increase in special teams and defensive touchdowns as the season progresses, which could be impacting the gradual rise in points scored by those in the "below average" offensive touchdowns category. Conversely, the "above average" category in that metric has dipped in the past few weeks, which could be attributed to several good but not great point totals relative to earlier in the season.

Despite the decrease, it's still evident that targeting offenses exceeding the benchmark for offensive touchdowns and yards is the ideal approach.

We're down to just five teams that have run 65.0 or more plays per game, compared to 15 between 61.0 and 65.0, and 12 under 61.0. With such a small sample size, the output can be easily influenced by the individual teams within it. The highest-scoring team to run at least 65 plays per week is the Chiefs, who sit 10th with 25.38 points per game. Four of the top six teams land in the average range, all of whom have run at least 62.5 plays per game.

With so many injuries to wide receivers, more offenses are building their game plans around their backfields, reducing the number of plays run. We'll monitor this trend, but for now, teams in either the "above average" or "average" categories seem like good bets.

Week 10 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Baltimore Ravens

After letting their guard down against the invigorated Browns, the Ravens bounced back in a big way against Denver. It was close until the end of the first half when they scored with less than a minute remaining. Including that touchdown, they scored 24 unanswered en route to a 41-10 blowout.

They're now second in points per game with 31.4, second in offensive touchdowns with 3.68, and first in offensive yards with 445.89 while running 62.56 plays per game. They're one of only two teams you can include in the debate for best offense.

Next up for Baltimore is a rematch against Cincinnati. These two produced a 79-point overtime siesta back in Week 5. However, there are reasons to be concerned about a repeat.

The first is that Baltimore is at home. The second is the absence of Tee Higgins, who is doubtful to play. The combination could lead to a one-sided affair where the Ravens take their foot off the gas late. Despite all that, Vegas has this one with the highest over/under at 53.

The obvious: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers have become a very reliable trio. Jackson is a strong MVP candidate who has been among the best NFL and fantasy QBs this season. Henry is on pace for 317 carries for 1,987 yards and 21 touchdowns. He's also found the end zone twice through the air, which would add four more. Meanwhile, Flowers has hit at least a 30% target share in three of his last four games, establishing himself as the No. 1 target.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Mark Andrews remains a top-12 tight end because he's on arguably the league's best offense and has a long history of finding paydirt. The volume isn't there the way it was in previous seasons, but he scored in three straight outings before last week.

Player No. 2 - When the total is high and the Ravens are forced to air it out, Justice Hill has some flex appeal. This could be one of those weeks, making him a potential option.

Offense No. 2 - Detroit Lions

The second team with a legitimate case for the league's best offense is the Lions, who are coming off a statement win over their division rivals in Lambeau. Jordan Love was not 100 percent healthy, but Detroit was leading 24-3 midway through the third quarter.

Like Baltimore, it is first in points per game with 32.25, first in offensive touchdowns with 3.75, and seventh in offensive yards with 369.63 while running 60.75 plays per game. Furthermore, its yard total is lower because its defense has played well and its offense is so efficient.

The Lions travel to Houston against a team that has been hit by injuries and cannot protect its quarterback. The Texans have a quality run defense, but that won't matter against the Lions, whose rushing attack is No. 1 in EPA/rush and tied for first in rushing touchdowns, despite not having a mobile quarterback. The best-case scenario is Houston finds a way to stay competitive, which would be a bonus for the weapons on Detroit.

The obvious: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and David Montgomery deserve a spot in your lineup. Gibbs played just 39% of Detroit's snaps on Sunday, yet he still totaled 76 yards and found the end zone. Montgomery failed to score a touchdown for only the second time this season, making it an outlier week. St. Brown will pop off when the team needs him, which should be this week against a worthy opponent.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Sam LaPorta has become difficult to trust. With Jameson Williams out for Game 2 of his two-game suspension, LaPorta caught two passes for 28 yards. Williams is eligible to return, making things more complicated for everyone outside the three mentioned above. He's best viewed as a high-upside streamer.

Played No. 2 - Jared Goff played excellent against the Packers, completing 82% of his passes with no turnovers. There was inclement weather and it was their first outdoor matchup, which we know has not been favorable for Goff. He's back in a dome, so he resumes his top-12 status.

Offense No. 3 - Philadelphia Eagles

At full health, the Eagles are a potent offense. We saw it in Week 1 with a 34-29 win over the Packers, and then again in the past four weeks in scoring 20, 28, 27, and 28 as part of a winning streak. Furthermore, they've been without Dallas Goedert for the past three weeks, so they've still been short-handed. Their most recent victory was a beatdown of the Jaguars, who made it look closer than it was.

Even with an array of injuries, they sit 11th in points per game at 24.88, fifth in offensive touchdowns per game with three, seventh in offensive yards at 377.13, and third in plays per game at 65.5. They have an offense you want pieces of, especially because it's so concentrated on their core four.

This week, they head to Arlington to embarrass their longtime division rivals. Dallas is a mess. It is without Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb is banged up, and its defense is still missing key players. Teams have averaged 364.8 yards of offense and 28.1 points per game. It's a dream matchup for Philly.

The obvious: The core four we referred to include Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith. Brown did suffer a knee injury in last week's win but has returned to practice. There's optimism he'll suit up for this one. He's been fantastic when he's on the field.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - If active, Dallas Goedert is a streamable option. The floor is almost zero, but he's good for a couple of spike weeks each year, so you can hope this is one of them.

Offense No. 4 - San Francisco 49ers

Not unlike the Eagles, the 49ers are a well-oiled machine when they have a full complement of weapons on offense. We know they won't be at full strength for the remainder of this year because Brandon Aiyuk is done. However, they are hopeful they'll have their superstar tailback on the field for the first time in 2024.

Despite the many injuries they've incurred, they're still sixth in points per game at 25.25, 14th in offensive touchdowns at 2.38, second in offensive yards at 412.38, and 11th in plays at 63.25. Those are impressive numbers for a squad missing its top players most weeks. The 49ers are also coming off their bye week, allowing several players to get healthier.

The schedule-makers did them a favor offensively, giving them the Tampa Bay defense, whose secondary has been getting torched. Since losing defensive pieces like Jamel Dean, it's only gotten worse. During the past three weeks, the Bucs have allowed 8.3 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 31st. Additionally, they're dead last in passing touchdowns allowed during that stretch, giving up four per contest. Fire up your 49ers.

The obvious: Deebo Samuel Sr. has been more inconsistent than usual, but his health contributed to that. He dealt with pneumonia in Week 7, which impacted him in Week 8. He had a limited practice on Wednesday, so things are looking up for Week 10. Christian McCaffrey also practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday. He's trending toward playing, which is great news. George Kittle is ready to roll and has been incredible.

UPDATE: McCaffrey is back and will play on Sunday. There is some speculation about a limited workload, but he's a must-start.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Brock Purdy is a must-start given the matchup.

Player No. 2 - Jauan Jennings also got in a limited practice on Wednesday, which keeps him on track to suit up this week. He was highly productive earlier this year with other wide receivers absent. He should still find a role, especially against the Buccaneers. He's a great flex option.

Offense No. 5 - Miami Dolphins

The last offense to target is the Dolphins. They're a completely different team with their franchise signal-caller back. They lost a heartbreaker to the Bills after going toe to toe for 59 minutes, losing on a last-second 61-yard field goal. They've faced defeat by a combined four points the past two weeks.

Since the return of Tua Tagovailoa, they've averaged 27 points per game, three offensive touchdowns per week, and 375 offensive yards per game. Those numbers would rank seventh, fifth, and eighth, respectively.

Winning their matchup against the Rams won't be easy, but scoring points against their defense will be. Los Angeles is also a potent offense, meaning there could be fireworks.

The obvious: De'Von Achane has seen outrageous target shares this year, but in Week 9, he hit a target share high of 29.6% with an 87% route participation rate. He's as much a receiver as he is a running back. Tyreek Hill didn't have a huge week against Buffalo, but that's been a trend for some time now. You can expect better things in Week 10.

UPDATE: Hill was a late addition to the injury report and is now in danger of missing their game Sunday. His absence would hurt Tagovailoa but help Waddle and Smith.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Tua Tagovailoa has been serviceable for fantasy since rejoining the team, so in a plus matchup, he's among the top 12.

Player No. 2 - Jonnu Smith seemed like a thing earlier in the season, but most of us assumed that was because of the backup quarterbacks. However, with Tagovailoa in the past two outings, he has nine receptions for 66 yards. Those aren't amazing stats, but it puts him in contention as a streamer.

Player No. 3 - Jaylen Waddle had just two targets last week. He saved his day by finding the end zone, but between Achane and Smith, he's not seeing the same role he did last season. He moves down the ranks and into this part of the write-up because he's not a lock to make your lineup.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 10. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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