Hidden 2nd Base Draft Gems and ADP Value Picks

If you're looking to make a splash on draft day, you should give RotoBaller's ADP Draft Sleepers Tool a long, hard look. Part of our Premium Subscribers package, the Sleepers Tool allows you to compare a player's expected production against his top comparables going later in the draft. Frankly, it's a great resource for identifying overvalued talents and hidden gems alike. To give you a glimpse into how it works, I've used the tool to scan through this year's stock of second basemen. Ready to see what value picks the Sleepers Tool unearthed? Let's take a look:

Brian Dozier vs. Jason Kipnis

Name	ADP	Age	PA	BA	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
Dozier	65.0	27	657	.243	.323	80	16	64	16
Kipnis	76.2	27	611	.254	.331	72	13	62	20

Injuries wrecked Jason Kipnis' 2014 season. It began during the preseason when he dropped a weight on one of his fingers, an injury which would require surgery to correct. Kipnis would go on to be struck by everything from food poisoning to a fairly serious oblique injury that year. Although the Indians don't seemed concerned it'll affect his availability on Opening Day, a minor back injury this Spring has served to further deflate his value.

Compared to Kipnis, Brian Dozier feels safe. He's a real liability when it comes to batting average, but that can be forgiven at 2^nd base if it comes with a 20/20 season. Yet isn't that exactly why so many people were excited about Kipnis before 2014? Between 2012 and 2013, Kipnis averaged 30 stolen bases and 15 home runs a season. Unlike Dozier, he did that with an above average .270 batting average.

Going forward, the Draft Sleepers Tool forecasts remarkably similar seasons for the two 2^nd basemen. Considering that you can grab Kipnis with just an eight round pick, it's worth considering just how different the two really are.

Ian Kinsler vs. Jason Kipnis

Name	ADP	Age	PA	BA	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
Kinsler	54.8	32	674	.266	.322	88	16	68	14
Kipnis	76.2	27	611	.254	.331	72	13	62	20

Once again, this choice boils down to risk tolerance. While the 27 year old Kipnis has a higher ceiling than the soon-to-be 33 year old Tigers infielder, Kinsler is the safer move. The MVP candidate of 2011 is long gone, but Kinsler is a good bet to safely hit to his projections. That security has real value.

It's still worth noting, however, that Kinsler's production over the last two years was still worse than what Kipnis averaged between 2012 and 2013. What happened in 2014 can make people forget this. As a rule, I'm always hesitant about overvaluing a player's most recent performance compared to his broader career. This is especially true when you're discussing a young player about to enter his prime years. A 22 pick gulf between Kinsler and Kipnis suggests to me that some owners have forgotten this rule.

Chase Utley vs. Aaron Hill

Name	ADP	Age	PA	BA	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
Utley	197.8	35	611	.258	.330	66	14	63	7
Hill	322.4	32	633	.253	.306	67	16	65	6

This one should surprise you. Chase Utley is a consensus top 20 2^nd baseman. ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft has him as high as his 11^th ranked 2^nd baseman while Yahoo's Brandon Funston has him 12^th. On the other hand, Aaron Hill is lucky to even get ranked. It's surprising then to find that Hill's projection is almost identical to Utley's.

Digging deeper, the similarities persist. Over the last three seasons, Utley has averaged a .272 batting average together with 13 home runs and 10 stolen bases. During the same time period, Hill has averaged a .279 batting average with 16 home runs and 6 stolen bases. On top of that, Hill is 3 years younger and plays in the third friendliest park in the majors for hitters. On grounds other than pure reputation, it's tough to justify taking Utley over Hill by over 100 picks in the draft.

All RotoBaller readers can use the 2B/SS ADP Draft Sleepers Tool (also in the upper right corner of site). And to get full access to all positions (SP, OF, 1B/3B) you can just...