X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Greg Maddux Plate Discipline Standouts for 2020

In my previous article, I wrote about my new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which stems from a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux:

“The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.”

The Maddux Plate Discipline Index (mPDI) for hitters led us to uncover some plate discipline standouts such as Cavan Biggio and Christian Walker. Today, we will look at the pitching version of mPDI. We can enumerate the percentage of the time in which pitchers demonstrate Greg Maddux's formulation of deception. To review, each and every pitch thrown at a baseball game can be classified into one of the following tracked six outcomes:

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

mPDI Matrix

Outcome A Outcome B Outcome C Outcome D Outcome E Outcome F
Zone? Out of Zone Out of Zone Out of Zone In Zone In Zone In Zone
Swing? Swung On Swung On No Swing Swung On Swung On No Swing
Contact? No Contact Contact Made No Swing No Contact Contact Made No Swing

Closely resembling his quote, the Maddux Plate Discipline Index (mPDI) for pitchers is defined as:

Outcome A + Outcome B + Outcome F
Total Pitches

The version of mPDI for pitchers is the mirror image definition of the hitter’s mPDI [which aggregated Outcomes C, D & E]. To give context, an awful pitcher mPDI would be one nearing .250, while an elite one would approach .400. The average for 2019 was .315.

First, let’s start by looking at the 2019 mPDI leaderboard for pitchers (minimum 25 innings):

Player IP mPDI
Sergio Romo 60.3 .390
Ryan Pressly 54.3 .387
Adam Morgan 29.7 .387
Andrew Kittredge 49.7 .385
Evan Marshall 50.7 .383
Jimmy Cordero 37.3 .382
Stephen Strasburg 209.0 .372
Zac Gallen 80.0 .366
Chaz Roe 51.0 .364
Chris Sale 147.3 .364
Victor Alcantara 42.7 .361
Alex Claudio 62.0 .361
Will Smith 65.3 .361
Brandon Workman 71.7 .360
Aaron Nola 202.3 .359
Randy Dobnak 28.3 .358
Matt Bowman 32.0 .358
Tommy Milone 111.7 .358
Adam Kolarek 55.0 .358
Matt Wisler 51.3 .358
Jose Berrios 200.3 .357
Lucas Sims 43.0 .357
Jake Jewell 26.3 .357
Dominic Leone 40.7 .356
Brad Hand 57.3 .355
Blake Snell 107.0 .355
Zack Greinke 208.7 .355
Blake Treinen 58.7 .354
Kyle Gibson 160.0 .354
Tim Mayza 51.3 .354
Jared Hughes 71.3 .353
Austin Adams 32.0 .353
Tony Watson 54.0 .353
Scott Barlow 70.3 .352
Collin McHugh 74.7 .351
Jordan Hicks 28.7 .350
Zack Britton 61.3 .350
Jameson Taillon 37.3 .350
Patrick Corbin 202.0 .350
Luke Jackson 72.7 .350
Keone Kela 29.7 .349
Hyun-Jin Ryu 182.7 .349
Yoshihisa Hirano 53.0 .349
Miles Mikolas 184.0 .348
Austin Pruitt 47.0 .348
Jeurys Familia 60.0 .348
Wandy Peralta 39.7 .347
Noe Ramirez 67.7 .347
Hector Neris 67.7 .346
Tyson Ross 35.3 .346
Charlie Morton 194.7 .346
Kyle Hendricks 177.0 .346
Joe Kelly 51.3 .345
Pedro Strop 41.7 .345
Yu Darvish 178.7 .345
Jonathan Loaisiga 31.7 .345

Let’s dive into a few of these top Maddux Plate Discipline pitchers.

 

Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS)

Name IP mPDI Outcome A Outcome B Outcome F
Stephen Strasburg 209.0 .372 .096 .129 .146

At the top of the mPDI leaderboard for starting pitchers, we find the World Series MVP, Stephen Strasburg. He was my pre-season prediction to win the NL Cy Young award. Last year, Strasburg compiled a 5.7 WAR, which was third-most amongst National League pitchers. He struck out a career high 251 batters, with a 10-year best 1.04 WHIP.

But today, we give him attention for his plate discipline and deception. Last year’s O-Swing% was 37%, the highest of his career. That means he was generating more swings out of the zone than ever before. His total swinging strike rate [in and out of the zone] was an elite 13.4% - also the best of his career.

It is too early to tell whether these gains have sustained in 2020, as he began the season injured. To date, in his 5 innings thus far, he has not fared well. His fastball velocity is down 2 MPH from last season, but his command looks decent with a first-pitch strike rate of almost 70%. If Strasburg can return to full health, look for him to continue to pitch at an ace level.

 

Ryan Pressly (RP, HOU)

Name IP mPDI Outcome A Outcome B Outcome F
Ryan Pressly 54.3 .387 .122 .106 .159

Ryan Pressly has quietly been one of the most effective relievers over the past couple of seasons. His .390 mPDI was the 2nd highest of any pitcher in the majors last year. Only Sergio Romo had a higher Maddux index. What jumps out from a plate discipline perspective is his Outcome A (out of the zone, swung on and missed). 12.2% of Pressly’s pitches in 2019 fell into this cohort, which was the 2nd highest in all of baseball. His Outcome F (in the zone, no swing) was also elite. Almost 16% of his pitches were taken for a strike without a swing!

Ryan caught my eye last season in his first 26 innings. From March to May last year, Pressly yielded only one earned run. Even more impressive – he only issued two walks during that span. As we see from his mPDI result, these were hardly lucky outcomes; Pressly is an elite deceptive reliever.

Pressly started 2020 with some injury concerns, but assuming he gets through those – the closer job will be his in Houston.

 

Evan Marshall (RP, CHW)

Name IP mPDI Outcome A Outcome B Outcome F
Evan Marshall 50.7 .383 .079 .181 .123

In an uncertain fantasy landscape, I prefer at times to roster (and activate) high strikeout middle relievers, rather than to play a poor 7th starting pitcher. It behooves the astute fantasy owner to look for a few unknown diamonds in the rough.

Evan Marshall is slowly becoming a trusted option in the South side of Chicago. He is being used in more and more high leverage situations, and has found himself recently pitching in the 8th inning of games.

mPDI can give us a clue as to why. Marshall’s Outcome B (Out of zone, swing and contact) was the highest of any pitcher in baseball last season at 18%. Almost one-fifth of his pitches were contacted while out of the zone – which is a key to generating poor contact. His hard-hit contact rate according to Statcast was 30% last season, and it has stayed low thus far in 2020 at 33%.

To start the season, in his first 11 innings, he has compiled a 2.38 ERA – which FIP and xFIP agree with (2.79 & 2.51 respectively). His WHIP is a mere 1.15 and he has yet to give up a barrel. His K% rate is 33.3% - which means that one out of every three batters he faces ends in a strikeout.

Should Alex Colome falter, I could see Marshall sliding into some save opportunities. Even if not, Marshall could be an excellent play in deeper formats.

 

Zac Gallen (SP, ARI)

Name IP mPDI Outcome A Outcome B Outcome F
Zac Gallen 80.0 .366 .090 .120 .156

Zac Gallen was traded from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks in the middle of last season, in a trade of prospects. The Marlins perhaps had enough pitching depth in the organization, and wanted to secure a position player, which are often more reliable. Perhaps though, Gallen was worth keeping.

After a 2.81 ERA in 80 innings last season, Gallen is off to a brilliant start in 2020. In his first five starts he has a 2.40 ERA, a dazzling 1.03 WHIP with 36 strikeouts in 30 innings. To boot, he has a near 50% groundball rate.

As for his plate discipline, Gallen was the 2nd best starting pitcher in terms of his mPDI. His Outcome F (in the zone, no swing) was superb, and his out of zone metrics are outstanding. His swinging strike rate was 12.8% last year, and so far in 2020 it is up to 13.0%! Gallen is increasing his use of sliders in his pitch mix this year – further perfecting his repertoire.

I have high hopes for Zac Gallen long term, and mPDI is thus far confirming my intuition in the short term.

 

Randy Dobnak (SP, MIN)

Name IP mPDI Outcome A Outcome B Outcome F
Randy Dobnak 28.3 .358 .087 .134 .138

I did not expect to be writing about this next player. Randy Dobnak is an individual that I personally had not been high on for fantasy baseball. However, his results in 2020 have been stellar. In his first 5 games, he is currently 5th in the major leagues in ERA [among qualified starting pitchers] at 1.42. In fact, his career ERA is now sitting at 1.59 with a 1.01 WHIP. It seems fantastic, until one glances at his strikeouts which are sub-pedestrian. He struck out just 14 batters in 25 innings this season – less than a 5 K/9.

Then we come to his plate discipline. His mPDI of .358 was among last year’s top pitchers. Each one of his Maddux plate discipline outcomes are superb. Despite sub-par strikeouts, Dobnak has generated an elite 65% groundball rate this season; he is producing weak contact.

Succeeding at pitching is not only about raw "stuff." Effective pitching is highly dependent on deceptiveness. Using tangential guidance from Greg Maddux via mPDI, we are now clued into keeping an eye out for potentially undervalued pitchers such as Randy Dobnak.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Chris Sale10 hours ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal10 hours ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Paul George11 hours ago

Exits Game On Wednesday, Hyperextends Left Knee Again
Scoot Henderson11 hours ago

Leaves Game On Wednesday, Won't Return
Jalen Johnson12 hours ago

Active On Wednesday Night
Zach Collins12 hours ago

Uncertain To Play On Thursday
Austin Eckroat12 hours ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English12 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin12 hours ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy12 hours ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Patrick Williams12 hours ago

Likely To Miss At Least One Week
Kyle Anderson12 hours ago

Available For Matchup With Hawks
Victor Wembanyama12 hours ago

Out Again On Thursday
Jusuf Nurkic13 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Stephen Curry13 hours ago

Will Play Against Atlanta
De'Anthony Melton13 hours ago

To Undergo Season-Ending ACL Surgery
Tre Mann13 hours ago

Probable For Thursday Night Matchup Against Detroit
Mike Conley13 hours ago

Appears On Injury Report For Thursday With Toe Injury
Donte DiVincenzo13 hours ago

Questionable Heading Into Thursday
Josh Jacobs13 hours ago

Limited With Multiple Injuries
DeVonta Smith13 hours ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Isaiah Hartenstein13 hours ago

To Make Season Debut On Wednesday
Tyrese Maxey14 hours ago

Active On Wednesday
Jarace Walker14 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Ben Sheppard14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Myles Turner14 hours ago

To Play On Wednesday
Jalen Green14 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Vince Williams Jr.15 hours ago

Out Versus 76ers
Wendell Carter Jr.15 hours ago

Unavailable Versus Clippers
Seth Jones15 hours ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Sam Darnold15 hours ago

Limited With Foot Injury
Max Domi15 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jalen Hurts16 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Connor Ingram16 hours ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Jake Ferguson16 hours ago

Picks Up A DNP On Wednesday
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen16 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
CeeDee Lamb16 hours ago

Listed As Limited, Dealing With Two Injuries
Alex Tuch16 hours ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson16 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Sam LaPorta16 hours ago

Practicing In Full
Jordan Eberle16 hours ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
George Kittle16 hours ago

Will Play In Week 12
Ludvig Aberg16 hours ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Ladd McConkey16 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Si Woo Kim16 hours ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy16 hours ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole16 hours ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
San Francisco 49ers17 hours ago

Nick Bosa Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey17 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
George Kittle17 hours ago

Limited During Wednesday's Practice
Brock Purdy17 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Alexander Mattison18 hours ago

Zamir White Not Practicing On Wednesday
Sam LaPorta18 hours ago

Trending Towards Playing In Week 12
Calvin Ridley20 hours ago

Out Wednesday With Illness
Isiah Pacheco20 hours ago

To Practice On Wednesday
D'Andre Swift20 hours ago

Won't Practice On Wednesday
Brandin Cooks21 hours ago

Cowboys Open Brandin Cooks' Practice Window
Mike Evans21 hours ago

Practicing Again On Wednesday
Connor Bedard1 day ago

Ends Drought With Two Assists
Sam Reinhart1 day ago

Pushes Point Streak To 11 Games
Mark Scheifele1 day ago

Celebrates Ninth Career Hat Trick
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Rocks Senators With Three-Point Period
Connor McDavid1 day ago

Nets Two Goals During Three-Point Night
TB1 day ago

Nicholas Paul Exits Early With Injury Tuesday
Zach Hyman1 day ago

Sits Out Third Period Versus Senators
1 day ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers1 day ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
Jonas Brodin2 days ago

Returns To Action
Joel Eriksson Ek2 days ago

Returns To Wild Lineup
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Robert Thomas2 days ago

Back For Blues Tuesday
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Alexander Romanov2 days ago

Rejoins Islanders Lineup
Brayden Point2 days ago

Ready To Return Versus Penguins
Conor Garland2 days ago

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
J.T. Miller2 days ago

Takes Indefinite Leave For Personal Reasons
Jake Ferguson2 days ago

"Will Be Hard-Pressed" To Play In Week 12
2 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
2 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
2 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
2 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil2 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer3 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
3 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
3 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva3 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy3 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
Nick Martinez4 days ago

Signs Qualifying Offer With Reds
4 days ago

Luis Severino Likely To Decline Qualifying Offer From Mets
James Llontop4 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig4 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal4 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic4 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones4 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title
Grayson Rodriguez6 days ago

Orioles Optimistic Grayson Rodriguez Will Have A Full Spring Training
6 days ago

Red Sox Have Productive Meeting With Juan Soto

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Jauan Jennings - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 12 (2024)

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends Analysis For Week 12 by Kevin Tompkins Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent […]


Video: Week 12 Must-Start Wide Receivers - 2024 Fantasy Football Streamers, Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Analysis

As we head into Week 12 we're dealing with multiple teams on byes. Be prepared to navigate those challenges by checking out our favorite 2024 fantasy football must-start wide receivers for Week 12! RotoBaller's Matt Donnelly discusses his top "Must Start" WRs that will have a fantasy football impact in Week 12, as well as […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, George Pickens

The Week 12 Thursday Night Football game between two bitter AFC North rivals (Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers) is not likely to end up like the Thursday night game from two weeks ago when two different AFC North teams (Bengals and Ravens) battled to a 35-34 shootout. Somewhere deep in the charter of the Pittsburgh […]


Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Free Week 12 NFL Betting Picks and Expert Predictions

Well, Week 11 turned out to be another week where we were just treading water. We nailed our Chargers moneyline pick as they got the job done against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the Cleveland Browns let us down as they were completely destroyed by the New Orleans Saints. We dropped 1.02 units on that play […]


Brian Robinson Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings Running Backs, Waiver Wire Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 12 Targets and Avoids (2024)

Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do is […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 12 (2024)

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 12 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive […]


Joe Mixon - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Rest-of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 12 Updates for Top 200 (2024)

We're nearing Thanksgiving and the holiday stretch run of the fantasy football season, which means y'all get an early present with an updated rest-of-season rankings chart! The action isn't stopping so we can't slow down our efforts to constantly re-assess the field. Join us in analyzing risers and fallers with our Week 12 fantasy football […]


Justin Herbert

High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 12 Lineups Including Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Quentin Johnston, Austin Ekeler, Will Dissly, More

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 12 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key […]


Drake Maye - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Sneaky Starts, Pivot Plays, and Post-Waiver Pickups for Week 12 - Drake Maye, Quentin Johnston, Hunter Henry and More!

Three weeks is all we have left of the regular season. It’s the point of the season where every matchup is critical for those teams fighting for their playoff lives. To make it extra difficult, there are six teams on bye this week.  If you are one of those managers fighting for a playoff spot, […]


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, TE, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Late Slate: Daily Fantasy Football Week 12 NFL DFS Lineup Picks on DraftKings and FanDuel (2024)

Welcome back to our late slate Week 12 DFS picks article here at RotoBaller! In this piece, I will examine my top daily fantasy football lineup plays for the late slate in Week 12 of the NFL season. In Week 12, we have three games on the NFL DFS late slate on DraftKings and FanDuel […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 12 (Thursday Updates): Tyreek Hill, Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Isiah Pacheco and More

Week 12 of the NFL's 2024 slate is coming up, and as the fantasy football playoffs draw closer, it's becoming more important than ever to stay ahead of injury news for key players. Leaving a hurt player in your lineup can result in disaster. The author of this article missed out on the fantasy playoffs […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

PrizePicks NFL DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for Steelers vs. Browns Thursday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome to our PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for Week 12 Thursday Night Football -- Steelers vs. Browns! The 2024 NFL season is now past the midpoint and our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. Our partners at PrizePicks offer some […]


Tucker Kraft - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start 'Em and Sit 'Em For Week 12

We are officially in the home stretch of the fantasy football regular season. Traditional 12-team leagues have three more weeks, making our start/sit decisions even more critical and stressful. Securing a playoff spot is always the goal, but that first-round bye can be the difference between a championship or an early playoff exit. The tight […]