RADIO
Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Green Bay Packers as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
The Packers were expected to struggle last season with the loss of Aaron Rodgers and a plethora of rookies on the offensive side of the ball, and while they did struggle early, the lights came on late in a way we, as fans, rarely get to see. Love's midseason transformation was incredible. The Packers' offense operated as a top-five offense for the second half of the season, destroyed the Cowboys in the playoffs, and took the 49ers down to the wire. The sky is the limit and the expectations are high, but this Green Bay offense is loaded with weapons. It all starts at quarterback, where they have an MVP-caliber signal-caller on the verge of earning elite status.
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Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024 fantasy football drafts:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Fantasy football rookie rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
Fantasy Football Team Previews
| NFC West | AFC West | NFC South | AFC South | NFC East | AFC East | NFC North | AFC North |
| Rams | Broncos | Saints | Colts | Cowboys | Jets | Lions | Browns |
| Seahawks | Chargers | Buccaneers | Titans | Giants | Patriots | Bears | Ravens |
| 49ers | Raiders | Panthers | Jaguars | Commanders | Bills | Vikings | Bengals |
| Cardinals | Chiefs | Falcons | Texans | Eagles | Dolphins | Packers | Steelers |
Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook
Jordan Love: QB9, ADP 72
There is who Jordan Love was, and there's who Jordan Love is. Fantasy managers saw two completely different quarterbacks in 2023, but the one they saw late in the season was playing like one of the top three quarterbacks on Planet Earth. Maybe the best. Love's midseason transformation was nothing short of remarkable, and while on some level, a drastic change like that should be surprising, on the other hand, maybe it shouldn't have been. After all, Love was in his first season as an NFL starter.
Love was throwing to receivers and tight ends, all in their first or second year in the league. Their best offensive player, Aaron Jones, was in and out of the lineup. Maybe his being up and down early should have been the expectation. When you think about it, his struggle early and getting better as the season went along makes complete sense, but oh boy, did he get better.
| Time | Completion % | PYPG | YPA | TD % | Interception % | QB Rating | Sack % | Pressure Sack % | Catchable % | Off-Target % | TWT % | PPG |
| Weeks 1-8 | 57.9% | 213.1 | 6.4 | 4.7% | 3.4% | 78.5 | 5.3% | 24.1% | 76.0% | 19.3% | 5.6% | 18.3 |
| Weeks 9-20 | 68.5% | 261.1 | 7.8 | 6.5% | 1.2% | 108.3 | 3.7% | 11.8% | 78.5% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 20.3 |
All of that youth showed up the first ten weeks of the season. Love and the offense were up and down and finding their footing. The same goes for head coach Matt LaFleur. He was learning which players best fit into each spot. Then, something magically happened from Week 9 onward. Love went through one of the biggest and most extreme midseason breakouts you'll ever see. It was truly a tale of two seasons. Love had glimpses of good play during the first half but was incredibly inconsistent. The offense struggled to string together multiple good plays, much less drives or games.
Since Week 9, however, Love was arguably the best quarterback on Planet Earth.
Jordan Love: Clean Pocket Passing
Entering Week 9 Vs. Now pic.twitter.com/u0e14C4u8z
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) January 4, 2024
Jordan Love: Under Pressure
Entering Week 9 vs. Now. pic.twitter.com/eIm3w6OnYj
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) January 4, 2024
Jordan Love: Deep Passing
Numbers entering Week 9 vs. Now pic.twitter.com/jCGotFuSuG
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) January 4, 2024
Love's 32 passing touchdowns are the fourth-most by a quarterback in his first season with multiple starts, trailing only Patrick Mahomes, Kurt Warner, and Daunte Culpepper. Love had five games with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. This is tied for the second-most all-time for a quarterback in his first 18 starts. Only Mahomes had more (six). Per PlayerProfiler, Love had the sixth-most money throws. He had the 10th-best adjusted yards per attempt, seventh-best air yards per attempt, eighth-most fantasy points per dropback, and finished with the fifth-best PPG among quarterbacks. Love was phenomenal.
Packers in Weeks 9-18:
Yards per play: 6 (3rd)
EPA per play: +0.139 (3rd)
TD drive percentage: 27.3% (5th)
Scoring drive percentage: 45.5% (4th)
Successful play rate: 39% (3rd)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 10, 2024
Love's brilliance transformed the Packers into a top-three offense since Week 9. The wild thing was that he did it with pass-catchers who were all in their first or second season. Once the flip switched in Week 9, Love gave fantasy managers seven top-12 weekly outings. Five were in the top 10 and two were in the top five. During the fantasy playoffs, Weeks 15-17, Love averaged 23.6 PPG, finishing as the QB6 in Week 16 and QB2 in Week 17. While the fantasy season may have stopped for all of us, it didn't stop Love. His great play continued into the playoffs, where he absolutely torched the Cowboys' defense.
If we look at his per-game averages from Weeks 9 until their playoff loss -- 12 games worth of data -- and extrapolate that over 17 games, Love would have finished with 4,439 yards, 37 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Now, imagine if Love gets slightly better in his second year as the starter. Imagine if Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave are healthy. Imagine if Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft all get slightly better in their second seasons.
Let me take this one step further. From 2020-2022, the Packers threw the ball 58.6% of the time in neutral situations. From Weeks 9 through the Packers' playoff loss last year, their neutral pass rate was 56.2%. If we eliminated 2022 from our first sample when Aaron Rodgers was dealing with a broken thumb and the Packers had just lost Davante Adams, their neutral pass rate from 2020-2021 jumped to 59.5%. Even when Love dominated last year, LaFleur still held him back. Fantasy managers should expect the reins to come completely off in 2024.
Given the strength of the position, it's hard to get Love to be much higher than QB7. However, fantasy managers should prefer Love at pick No. 72 over C.J. Stroud at pick No. 52. That is a no-brainer. Love's price is fair for fantasy managers, but there's a lot of untapped potential here. The only caveat to Love's ultimate upside is that he didn't show much rushing last season. However, since LaFleur became the head coach, the Packers have boasted one of the NFL's highest red zone pass rates. His touchdown upside, especially with his weapons, is incredibly high.
Verdict: Fair Price on Jordan Love
Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook
Josh Jacobs: RB12, ADP 22
MarShawn Lloyd: RB48, ADP 149
A.J. Dillon: RB57, ADP 192
This off-season, the Packers front office parted ways with Aaron Jones and signed Josh Jacobs, who had previously been with the Raiders. Jones's injury-plagued 2023 season may have played a role in the decision. He played just 11 games and was hampered in several others. While Jones is not generally viewed as an elite running back, he had performed that way in previous years with Green Bay. Fantasy managers may not have viewed him as such because LaFleur did not give him a full workhorse role. He only had two seasons with over 250 touches and never had a year with more than 285.
Now the question is, will LaFleur give Jacobs the role and workload he never gave Jones?
LaFleur has been Green Bay's head coach, which gives us five years' worth of data on the workload this new running back group can expect. Below, you'll find a table that displays just how many rushing attempts, targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns the Green Bay running backs have combined to have in LaFleur's five-year stint in Green Bay. For 2019 and 2020, per-game averages were used to extrapolate them over 17 games since, during those two seasons, the NFL was still playing just 16 games.
| Year | Carries | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Receiving TDs |
| 2019 | 377 | 1,681 | 17 | 129 | 100 | 803 | 8 |
| 2020 | 405 | 2,046 | 13 | 120 | 95 | 740 | 3 |
| 2021 | 391 | 1,715 | 10 | 106 | 89 | 712 | 8 |
| 2022 | 410 | 1,929 | 9 | 116 | 88 | 618 | 5 |
| 2023 | 367 | 1,497 | 4 | 94 | 68 | 528 | 1 |
| Average | 390 | 1,774 | 10.5 | 113 | 88 | 680 | 5 |
Readers should focus on two areas. The first is rushing touchdowns. In 2019, the Packers' running backs had 17 total touchdowns, but they have not scored more than 10 rushing touchdowns since 2020. While the average is 10.5, if we eliminate 2019, which appears to be an outlier, the average drops to nine rushing touchdowns. From 2021-2023, the Packers pass rate in the red zone was 56.1%, the sixth-highest in the NFL. Even last year, in Love's first season as the starter, their pass rate in the red zone was 53.7%, the seventh-highest in the NFL.
Green Bay finished first in points scored in 2020, 10th in 2021, 14th in 2022, and 12th in 2023. This has been a really good offense for the past four years, and they've averaged just nine rushing touchdowns per year to their running backs. Fantasy managers should certainly expect more touchdowns than the four they scored last year, but expecting 12 or more, based on their historical averages and red zone passing rate, is unlikely.
The second area readers should focus on is the receiving utilization. From 2019-2022, the Aaron Rodgers years, Packer running backs averaged 118 targets, 93 receptions, 718 yards, and six touchdowns. With Love, those numbers fell to 94 targets, 68 receptions, 528 yards, and one touchdown this past season. There's a clear reason for that. The No. 2 non-running back target-earner for Green Bay from 2019-2022 has been Jimmy Graham (yes, the tight end), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (who may not make the Buffalo roster), Allen Lazard, and Robert Tonyan. Think about how awful that is!
From 2019-2021, the best non-running back pass-catchers behind Davante Adams were Jimmy Graham, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Allen Lazard. In 2022, Rodgers' top two non-running back pass-catchers were Lazard and Tonyan. Given that personnel, it should be no surprise that Rodgers targeted Jones at a high rate.
Last year, Love had options with Doubs, Reed, Wicks, Watson, and Musgrave. He had more than one pass-catcher who could win on the outside, which didn't force Love to check down, a luxury Rodgers was never afforded. It was Adams and then check-down because MVS, Lazard, Cobb, Graham, and Tonyan (yes, those were his next-best pass-catchers) couldn't win regularly. We should expect more efficiency from the running backs catching the ball. A 72% catch rate for running backs is fairly low across the league and should be expected to increase this season.
A big question will become what kind of snap share and workload Jacobs gets this season. LaFleur has historically utilized a running back by committee approach in Green Bay and his one season as Tennessee's offensive coordinator. In 2018, LaFleur gave Derrick Henry 230 touches and Dion Lewis 214. Lewis played 60.1% of the snaps, and Henry played 40.1%. Over the past five years in Green Bay, no running back has achieved a 63% snap share. You can argue injuries impact that, but it still is what it is.
Packers RB snap share % under Matt LaFleur
2019: A. Jones (62%), J. Williams (41%)
2020: A. Jones (60%), J. Williams (46%), Dillon (14%)
2021: A. Jones (58%), Dillon (43%)
2022: A. Jones (58%), Dillon (49%)
2023: Dillon (51%), A. Jones (49%)This is a MarShawn Lloyd tweet
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) May 7, 2024
The other thing to consider is that Jacobs is coming off the worst season of his career. Only two other running backs -- Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison -- had a worse differential in terms of their actual half-PPR points scored and their expected half-PPR points than Jacobs last season. The former Raider finished with a -43.3-point differential. That is terrible! What’s more troubling is that it came after a 393-touch season in 2022.
Volume is a double-edged sword. We want it. We need it, but the more they get, the quicker the effectiveness and talent seem to wane. However, there wasn't much difference between Dillon and Jacobs last year.
| Player | YPC | YPT | Yards Created Per Touch | Breakaway Run Rate | YAC/Attempt | YPR | YPRR |
| Jacobs | 3.45 | 4.1 | 2.89 | 2.10% | 1.5 | 8 | 1.64 |
| Dillon | 3.44 | 4.2 | 3.23 | 1.70% | 1.7 | 10.1 | 1.45 |
In 2023, 42 running backs finished with more than 150 touches. Jacobs was 36th in yards per carry, 29th in rush success rate, 39th in yards after contact per attempt, and 33rd in broken tackle rate. Looking at his PlayerProfiler page, which uses a different set of qualifiers, Jacobs ranked just 50th in yards per touch, 48th in breakaway run rate, and 49th in yards created per touch. He scored just 0.63 fantasy points per opportunity, ranking 58th. Just how bad was he last year? Well, let me ask you how you feel about Ezekiel Elliott. Think about it.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Josh Jacobs in the year 2023:
Yards per carry:
Zeke (3.5), Jacobs (3.5)Yards after contact per carry:
Zeke (2.5), Jacobs (2.4)Missed tackles forced per carry:
Zeke (0.13), Jacobs (0.12)Explosive runs per carry:
Zeke (4.3%), Jacobs (3.9%)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 4, 2024
Since 2020, Jacobs has had just one season in which he averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry and two seasons in which his average was below 4.0. In 2022, Jacobs averaged 2.4 yards after contact per attempt. That was his only season since 2020, when he averaged more than 2.0 yards after contact per attempt. For fantasy, Jacobs has lived off of volume. Efficiency-wise, his 2022 season looks like a massive outlier.
Not only is he coming off his worst season as a pro (which isn’t ideal), but he’s also racked up over 1,500 touches in five seasons. Neither is ideal, and there are concerns about how both correlate to future fantasy production. Not only that, but historically, changing teams has also had a negative correlation to fantasy production. Jacobs currently has the trifecta going on.
Josh Jacobs averaged 17.2 weighted* opportunities last year, and scored 13.9 actual PPG.
That -3.3 differential was the 4th-worst of any RB over the past decade (min. 15.0 weighted opps/game)
(*weighted for average fantasy points from targets/carries in and out of the red zone) https://t.co/vM3zd4p9wM
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 5, 2024
Dillon has struggled for the past two seasons and if he hadn't been willing to sign a super-cheap contract, he wouldn't be in Green Bay this year. He shouldn't be viewed as a major threat to Jacobs' workload because in everything that Dillon does, Jacobs does it better. Even if he doesn't, the contracts will come into play.
The primary threat to Jacobs' workload is third-round rookie MarShawn Lloyd. However, he's been nursing a hip injury and has been held out of practice recently. During Family Night at Lambeau, Love played 28 snaps. Dillon handled 21 of the snaps, and Lloyd played on just five. If Dillon is the No. 2 running back in Green Bay, Jacobs could get that big workload fantasy managers want for him.
Last year, among 157 running backs with at least 100 carries, Lloyd ranked fourth in yards per carry average at 7.1 yards. He also averaged 3.97 yards after contact per attempt -- 20th-best. Of those 157 running back samples, Lloyd finished 134 with 115 carries. However, he finished 39th (!!!) in missed tackles forced with 47. For reference, Blake Corum had 230 carries and 30 missed tackles forced. He also finished 53rd with 24 carries of 10 or more yards, once again solidly outplaying his rushing volume. Lloyd was incredibly efficient and was a tackle-breaking machine.
#Packers OC Adam Stenavich on whether MarShawn Lloyd will see limited action his rookie season, ala AJ Dillon:
“No, I would like to get him out there as much as possible. He’s got a skill set that’s a little bit different than AJ’s, as far as his speed… It’ll be nice to get him… pic.twitter.com/PSWW3CbCOZ
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 6, 2024
Using the five-year running back average from the table above, if Jacobs handles 60% of the work, he'd finish with 234 carries and 1,064 rushing yards. If we give him 65%, he'd have 254 carries and 1,153 rushing yards. This should be the range fantasy managers expect from Jacobs.
Given the low touchdown numbers, expecting 7-9 touchdowns is reasonable. Regarding his passing game utilization, it seems clear we should be working off of Love's 2023 season more than the average just because of the changes in pass-catcher dynamics. Using the 2023 stat line, if Jacobs had a 60% share of the receiving work, he'd finish with 56 targets, 41 receptions, and 317 yards. If it were slightly lower at 55%, he'd have 51 targets, 37 receptions, and 290 yards. If it were slightly higher, at 65%, he'd finish with 60 targets, 44 receptions, and 343 yards.
With these projections, Jacobs' ADP is a fair price. He had previously been going as high as RB8, and that was always a touch high based on LaFleur's running back by committee history. The increase in other dependable pass-catchers will also likely lower the running back utilization in the passing game, and their penchant for passing near the red zone somewhat limits the touchdown upside despite the offense being high-scoring.
While Dillon has a higher positional ADP and may be the No. 2 running back on the depth chart early in the season, fantasy managers shouldn't bother with Dillon. The expectation, at this time, based on training camp reports, is that Dillon is ahead of Lloyd. This shouldn't be surprising since Lloyd has been injured and is a rookie. However, we're not drafting Lloyd for Weeks 1-5, we're drafting him for the second half of the season in the hopes he can carve out a role as the No. 2 and leap-frog Dillon.
Dillon is who Dillon has always been: a slow, plodding running back. If Jacobs were to get hurt, fantasy managers shouldn't expect Dillon to be a one-man show. It'll be a committee, and we should expect talent to win out in that situation. Based on what we know, that seems to be Lloyd. That makes Dillon a sell, but Lloyd is someone fantasy managers shouldn't be targeting.
Verdict: Fair Price on Josh Jacobs, Sell A.J. Dillon, and Buy MarShawn Lloyd
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook
Jayden Reed: WR34, ADP 78
Christian Watson: WR44, ADP 102
Romeo Doubs: WR55, ADP 141
Dontayvion Wicks: WR65, ADP 160
Anyone who tells you they know what to expect from the Packers wide receiver group is lying to you. There's just no way to know. Based on what fantasy managers want, Watson would play the X full-time, Wicks the full-time flanker, and Reed the full-time slot receiver. Doubs would be the man in reserve. Based on training camp thus far, Doubs has been the most impressive. Last season, including the playoffs, granted injuries played a part in this; Doubs led the Packers in routes, targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He also averaged the most routes, targets, and yards per game.
Based on that, it's safe to say fantasy managers will not get what they want. Doubs is going to be very much involved in this rotation. Last year, there were five games in the middle of the season (Weeks 7-11) where Doubs, Watson, Reed, Wicks, and Musgrave were all relatively healthy. Below is what the distribution looked like.
| Player | Routes | Route Share | Target Share | Target Rate | TPG | RPG | RePG | YPRR | Half-PPR PPG | Expected Half-PPR PPG |
| Doubs | 140 | 69.7% | 15.6% | 20% | 5.6 | 3.4 | 33.6 | 1.20 | 9.9 | 11.9 |
| Watson | 143 | 71.1% | 14.5% | 18% | 5.2 | 2.2 | 28.2 | 0.99 | 5.1 | 10.9 |
| Reed | 121 | 60.2% | 13.4% | 20% | 4.8 | 3.8 | 50.6 | 2.09 | 11.9 | 10.1 |
| Musgrave | 132 | 65.7% | 12.3% | 27% | 3.6 | 3.0 | 36.4 | 3.58 | 6.3 | 7.4 |
| Wicks | 66 | 32.8% | 10.1% | 17% | 4.4 | 2.6 | 47.2 | 1.38 | 6.0 | 6.7 |
As you can see from the table, no one stands out. Reed and Wicks' yard per route run was the most impressive, but their target and route shares lagged behind Watson and Doubs. It should be noted that I stated "relatively healthy" before. Reed had two games in this sample where he played 48% and 39% of the snaps. It isn't perfect, but it's the closest we can get to seeing what this group of five might look like when healthy.
Reed finished the season on an absolute tear. From Weeks 10-17, he averaged 15.0 half-PPR PPG and was the WR8 during this span. His expected half-PPR PPG average was 10.7. He scored 4.3 PPG over his expected PPG average via touchdowns. He scored seven total touchdowns in eight games. Reed's expected touchdowns during this period was 2.9.
During the season, Reed finished with nine end zone targets behind Doubs (14) and Watson (15), despite Watson being limited throughout the year due to injury once again. Reed's final touchdown tally for the season was 6.4, but he ended up with 10 touchdowns.
While we don't want to knock a rookie for finding the end zone too much because, ultimately, that's the name of the game, we should be asking ourselves if this is something he can continue. In Reed's case, the answer is probably not. Since we noted before that the table above included two games where Reed played under 50% of the snaps, below is a table showing the 12 games where Reed played above 50%, including missed games from Watson, Wicks, and Musgrave.
| Player | Route Share | Target Share | Target Rate | TPG | RPG | RePG | YPRR | Half-PPR PPG | Expected Half-PPR PPG |
| Reed | 66.1% | 16.2% | 22% | 5.6 | 3.8 | 52.6 | 2.08 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
One of the major things that held Reed back last season was that he was "only" a slot receiver. He played just two snaps in a two-receiver personnel grouping. With Musgrave and Kraft on the roster, the Packers used 12 personnel at an above-league-average rate. This took Reed off the field a considerable amount. Last year, he ended up not mattering because he ran hot on touchdowns, but if the same utilization is deployed this season, Reed may not be able to overcome the lack of snaps and routes. It's something to pay attention to throughout training camp.
What is exciting is how he's used on the field. Reed was given 11 rushing attempts, two of which were in the red zone. LaFleur frequently found ways to get the ball in his hands. The hope is that only continues to grow, but he has ample competition.
Maybe the biggest X-factor in this group is Christian Watson. Whenever this guy is healthy, he's really good. Also, there's a clear attempt to get him the ball once they get into the red zone. In 19 games last year, Doubs played in 19 of them and ran 498 routes. Watson played in 11 and ran 265. Reed played in 18 and ran 391. Despite the lack of playing time compared to his teammates, Watson finished with 22 red zone targets, tied with Reed, and just three behind Doubs (25). Watson led the team in end zone targets with 15, with Doubs at 14 and Reed at nine.
Watson is the biggest, most athletic, and most physically gifted of the Green Bay receivers, so the emphasis on utilizing near the end zone makes sense. The problem for Watson has been injuries, taking him off the field completely or limiting him significantly in the game. Below is a table from the last two years in the games Watson has played at least 70% of the snaps. There were eight such games last year and six in 2022.
| Year | Route Share | Target Share | Target Rate | TPG | RPG | RePG | YPRR | Half-PPR PPG | Expected Half-PPR PPG |
| 2023 | 72.3% | 17.7% | 22% | 6.1 | 3.2 | 49.6 | 1.79 | 9.7 | 12.6 |
| 2022 | 80.2% | 22.1% | 25% | 6.3 | 4.0 | 77.2 | 3.09 | 18.7 | 13.3 |
In those eight games last season, he posted weekly point totals of 10.1 (WR24), 9.2 (WR30), 17.9 (WR10), and 24.1 (WR8). As you can see from his expected half-PPR PPG average from last season, he left some points on the field. Not surprisingly, where Reed was lucky in the touchdown department, Watson was not. Based on his red zone utilization, his expected touchdown total was seven. He ended up with five. That's not the only place Watson was a bit unlucky.
Last year, from Week 1 through the Super Bowl, 86 receivers had at least 50 targets. Watson ranked 83rd in catchable target rate. Only Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jonathan Mingo, and Odell Beckham Jr. saw a lower catchable target rate than Watson.
It's no mystery that Watson has struggled to stay on the field. It's been dogged by nagging hamstring injuries for the past two seasons. However, he went to the University of Wisconsin-Madison this offseason for more information. He discovered that one of his legs is much stronger than the other, a 20% gap. In May, Watson shared that the discrepancy was down to 8% and wanted it down to a 6% difference by the start of the season.
This will help ensure that one leg isn't being forced to carry more of the load than the other and should, in theory, help keep Watson on the field. Time will tell if that'll be the case, but it seems that Watson has identified and attacked the problem. That's far better than blind hope.
That brings us to Doubs. Most view Doubs as the fourth-most talented receiver on the roster. Last year, Doubs played under 50% of the snaps in Week 1. He had suffered a hamstring injury in training camp and was on a snap count. In Week 18, he played under 15 snaps before leaving due to an injury. If we eliminate these two injury-affected contests and add their two playoff games, giving us a full, 17-game sample, you'd see this from Doubs below.
| Player | Route Share | Target Share | Target Rate | TPG | RPG | RePG | YPRR | Half-PPR PPG | Expected Half-PPR PPG |
| Doubs | 75.9% | 17.5% | 21% | 5.9 | 3.8 | 51.9 | 1.86 | 9.6 | 11.7 |
During these 17 games, Wicks, Reed, Musgrave, and Watson missed time. However, if you look at Watson's 70% snap share games from 2023, Reed's 50% snap share games from last season, and Doubs' above, you do not see much difference. Doubs had a 17.5% target share in his best games. Watson was at 17.7%, and Reed was at 16.2%. Doubs averaged 51.9 yards per game. Watson was at 49.6, and Reed had 52.6. Reed had the advantage in yards per route run at 2.08, but Doubs at 1.86 and Watson at 1.79 weren't too far behind. That brings us to our final receiver, Dontayvion Wicks.
Wicks played eight games last year with a snap share of 50% or more. The table below shows what his stats looked like in such games. However, four games in this sample came in the season's first four weeks. He had just 13 targets, six receptions, and 85 yards in those four games combined. In the final four games, he had 22 targets, 16 receptions, and 203 yards in the other four.
From Weeks 9-18, Wicks averaged 55.1 yards per game in eight contests, putting him on pace for 937 yards over 17 games. He got much better as the year went along. His yard per route run average in his first four games with a 50% snap share was 1.05, which jumped to 2.31 in his final four games with a 50% snap share.
| Player | Route Share | Target Share | Target Rate | TPG | RPG | RePG | YPRR | Half-PPR PPG | Expected Half-PPR PPG |
| Wicks | 59.5% | 13.0% | 20% | 4.37 | 2.75 | 36.0 | 1.70 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
Because of the way Wicks closed and some of his advanced metrics, fantasy managers hope to see him in a larger role this year. From Week 9 through their playoff loss to the 49ers, Wicks posted a 25% target rate and a 2.74-yard-per-route run average across 10 games. However, that also came on just 170 total routes, so a fairly small sample size. While that may be the case, Wicks clearly showed he can play and deserves a bigger role. How big of a role can that be given to the other receivers on the roster?
Wicks was incredibly efficient in his limited snaps last season. He finished with a 2.20-yard-per-route run in 17 games, including the two playoff games. This was the highest total among Packer pass-catchers with at least 100 routes. He also posted an impressive 22% target per route run rate, second-best among Packer pass-catchers with at least 100 routes. His 9.93 yard per target average was also the best mark among Packer pass-catchers.
As good as that is, and it is good, it was on a super small sample size, and while most expect, or at the very least, hope, that Wicks plays more than Doubs, that may not be in the cards.
Romeo Doubs had eight touchdowns on 96 targets last season and it’s like nobody cares that he’s going to play a lot this season and that he’s Jordan Love’s most trusted receiver https://t.co/iue05kFyRX pic.twitter.com/9OawLhzLH5
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 4, 2024
Last year, all the Packers' receivers played 3,182 snaps and ran 1,219 plays, including the playoffs. That's 64.1 plays per game. They also averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game. Assuming the Packers' offense doesn't start as slow as last year, let's assume those numbers bump to around 67 plays and 35 pass attempts per game. That would give us around 2,973 snaps for the Packers' receivers and 595 pass attempts.
Last year, the Packers' receivers had a 65% target, which aligns with the league average for receiver target share. So, how would this look if all four primary receivers stay healthy all year?
| Player | Snap | Snap Share | Targets | Target Share |
| Watson | 804 | 70% | 101 | 17% |
| Doubs | 803 | 70% | 95 | 16% |
| Reed | 752 | 66% | 101 | 17% |
| Wicks | 456 | 40% | 60 | 10% |
| Melton | 136 | 12% | 23 | 4% |
| WR6 | 22 | 2% | 6 | 1% |
| Total | 2,973 | 388 | 65% |
It is incredibly difficult -- impossible even -- for the math to math the way fantasy managers may want it to for one of these receivers to break out. Without an injury, it's unlikely that we will see any Packers receiver with a snap share or route share of over 70%. Given that, the player to target is Christian Watson. The reason is simple. Based on his utilization downfield and his high utilization near the red zone, Watson doesn't need a large target share to be effective. In some ways, you could argue he could be this year's Nico Collins. Collins had 109 targets, 80 receptions, 1,297 yards, and eight touchdowns.
His quarterback in 2022 was Davis Mills, who was terrible. Love wasn't terrible in 2023, but he was terrible for Watson, as evidenced by his catchable target rate among 86 receivers with at least 50 targets, ranking 83rd. The same was said about Collins in 2022. Then C.J. Stroud came in, drastically improved Collins' efficiency, and he broke out. Watson could have a similar season. For that reason, Watson is a player to buy. He's got the highest ceiling in this group of receivers; he demonstrated that high ceiling in 2022 and is fairly inexpensive.
Wicks is the other player to target because he's the cheapest. He's likely the fourth receiver on the target hierarchy and snap share, but if Watson or anyone else were hurt, Wicks would step into a near full-time role. We've seen him be crazy efficient when given the opportunity. He would have high contingency value if players above him on the depth chart were injured.
Even though Musgrave missed six weeks and Watson missed seven games, among low snap counts in several others, Doubs was still unable to provide fantasy managers with any relevance, and Doubs' price is still fair. Eliminating Weeks 1 and 18 due to injury, Doubs was held to under 40 receiving yards in 10 of his other 15 games. Love balled out mostly last year, several injuries struck, and Doubs remained lackluster. That may all be true, but he caught eight touchdowns on 96 targets and seems cemented into a leading role again for 2024.
The coaching staff trusts him, and Love does too. The training camp reports on Doubs have all been positive. He's the cheapest of the starting three (Watson, Reed, and Doubs), which bakes in some of the concerns regarding his efficiency.
Reed is the most expensive Packer, largely due to how he finished and because he found the end zone more frequently than the others. Given that his high touchdown total is likely regressing to the mean and that he did not play on any two receiver sets, there are some red flags in his 2024 profile. Guys like Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, and Rashee Rice are all going behind Reed. If Rice isn't suspended, all these players could have 30-40 more targets than him. Even Watson, available two rounds later, offers more upside at a cheaper cost.
Due to this, Reed is a slight sell. It's hard to completely fade a rookie who put up the kind of season he did in year one, especially on an offense as potent as Green Bay's with a quarterback of Love's caliber. Still, some elements concern his fantasy value.
Verdict: Slight Sell on Jayden Reed, Buy Christian Watson, Fair Price on Romeo Doubs, and Buy Dontayvion Wicks
Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook
Luke Musgrave: TE17, ADP 162
Tucker Kraft: TE31, ADP 254
Last year, tight ends averaged 13.7 targets per game and had a 21.3% target share. In 2022, they averaged 13.4 targets per game and had a 21.1% target share. These numbers are fairly consistent, giving us a good barometer to start. The question becomes how the Packers' coaching staff will distribute snaps and routes.
When the 2023 season started, Musgrave was the clear No. 1 tight end. Musgrave left Week 4 early due to injury and only played 25% of the snaps, but in Weeks 1-3 and 5-11, Musgrave played at least 64% of the snaps in every game. He had an 83% or higher snap share in three of those nine games. His snap share was above 72% in three others. Meanwhile, Kraft played fewer than 30% of the snaps in five of those nine games.
| Player | Routes PG | Route % | Target % | TPRR | TPG | RPG | RePG | YPRR | Half-PPR PPG |
| Musgrave | 25.8 | 68.5% | 14.5% | 19% | 4.8 | 3.5 | 37.8 | 1.46 | 6.2 |
| Kraft | 6.2 | 16.5% | 1.3% | 7% | 0.4 | 0.3 | 4.2 | 0.68 | 0.6 |
As you can see from the table above, Musgrave was the Packers' preferred tight end. He ran almost 26 routes per game compared to Kraft's six. It should be noted that Watson missed three of those nine games. Doubs and Reed were also both limited to one game apiece. Considering the target competition he had at receiver, Musgrave's rookie production is impressive. While it didn't lead to any fantasy relevancy, we typically don't see that kind of production out of rookie tight ends.
Musgrave was on pace for 82 targets, 60 receptions, and 643 yards based on his per-game averages from those nine contests. His production is noteworthy when you factor in the four-headed monster they have at receiver and Love's up-and-down first eight games.
Musgrave got hurt in Week 11 and didn't return to action until Week 18. He played 15%, 27%, and 28% of the team's snaps in their three final games of the season. During that time, Kraft played 90%, 80%, and 85% of the team's snaps. It was clear that they were bringing Musgrave along very slowly, who had lacerated his kidney. With Musgrave out, Kraft moved into a full-time role, and it is uncanny how similar his stats look to those of Musgrave's first nine. You'll be hard-pressed to find any real differences between the two.
| Player | Routes PG | Route % | Target % | TPRR | TPG | RPG | RePG | YPRR | Half-PPR PPG |
| Kraft | 25.3 | 73.8% | 14.6% | 19% | 4.7 | 3.4 | 37.3 | 1.47 | 7.5 |
Almost identical routes per game, target share, targets per game, receptions per game, yards per game, and yards per route run. Based on Kraft's production during Musgrave's absence, fantasy managers should expect his role to grow in year two. It's a foregone conclusion that Kraft will play much more than he did in those first nine games where Musgrave operated as the No. 1 tight end. Last year, the Packers' tight ends ran 662 routes in 19 games, roughly 34.8 per game. Kraft and Musgrave handled 553 of those, 83.5%.
Given their draft capital and working off the assumption that they'll both be healthy all 17 games, we should expect that number to rise to close to 90%+, which would have Kraft and Musgrave splitting roughly 32-33 routes per game.
That will make it difficult for either player to provide real fantasy production. We shouldn't expect Musgrave or Kraft to have 25 routes and the other eight. Not the way they both played last season. However, when Musgrave ran 25.8 routes per game, he averaged just 6.2 half-PPR PPG. When Kraft ran 25.3 routes per game, he averaged just 7.5 half-PPR PPG. 7.5 half-PPR PPG would've finished TE14 last year, and 6.2 would have been TE19. We can reasonably expect Love to be better over 17 games, and both of these young tight ends will improve, but to what end?
Their ADP of TE17 and TE31 isn't expensive, but it's hard to see where the upside comes in for either player without injuring the other. Given Musgrave's age, draft capital, athletic profile, quarterback, and offensive system, his TE17 price tag is fair. As previously noted, when the No. 1 tight end ran roughly 25 routes, they finished between TE14 and TE19. Musgrave's positional ADP is right in the middle. However, fantasy managers should expect a route split closer to 20 for Musgrave and 12 for Kraft or something to that effect.
Kraft's positional ADP is more appealing only because he's essentially free. If Musgrave were to get hurt, he's guaranteed to outplay his ADP. Musgrave struggled to stay on the field during his collegiate career. Not that injuries are predictable, but it's worth noting. There is more upside with Kraft, given his cheap ADP. There's also the possibility, albeit not very likely, that Kraft surpasses Musgrave on the depth chart. In his nine games, Musgrave had just three games with six or more targets. Kraft had five such games. Kraft also had three games over 55 receiving yards, whereas Musgrave had just one.
Full disclosure: I am arbitrarily picking a number. Musgrave had games of 49, 50, and 51 yards, although Kraft also had a game with 48. The point is that Kraft was equally impressive and has the potential to become the Packers' TE1A, but their current positional ADP views Musgrave as the clear TE1 and Kraft as the TE2. For that reason, I'm okay with buying Kraft at his price.
Verdict: Fair Price on Luke Musgrave and Buy Tucker Kraft
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