Grading The Six Players Taken Ahead Of Josh Allen In The 2018 NFL Draft

Fresh off his first NFL MVP award, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is putting together a legendary career as one of the best QBs in the league and certainly will be the best his team has ever seen once his career is over. However, NFL scouting whiffs on great players all the time.

It's not like all the players chosen before him in the 2018 NFL Draft were total busts or that there wasn't any reason Allen fell. In fact, he was drafted earlier than many expected and was seen as a project at QB. Obviously, the project succeeded in a huge way.

But it's always fun and, in fact insightful to look back on the careers of all the other players chosen before an elite QB like Allen and grade each pick. So, let's dive in.

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1. Baker Mayfield, QB (Cleveland Browns)

The consensus No. 1 overall player in the draft was Mayfield, out of the University of Oklahoma. The Heisman-winning QB put together a monster college career and ended his tenure as one of the best to ever play the game at that level. And it was perfectly reasonable to pick him first overall.

Team of the Day‼️🏈
2017 Oklahoma
• 12-2
• #2 Final CFP Ranking
• #3 Final AP Ranking
• Heisman Winner Baker Mayfield
• #1 Total Offense
• #3 Scoring Offense
• #3 Passing Offense pic.twitter.com/zVADxS5IQW

— College Football Report (@CFBRep) July 22, 2023

He immediately elevated the Browns offense, breaking rookie quarterback records along the way. And as we've seen from his tenure with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his eventual struggles in Cleveland were not his fault. He played through a brutal shoulder injury in his last season there, as well.

Mayfield was certainly robbed of some career production by some of the worst coaching staff of all time, like Hue Jackson, but he's earned his redemption. This season, he completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Those are elite numbers, and he led one of the best offenses in the country.

The Browns made a great pick with Mayfield and needed their franchise quarterback. Too bad they're a poverty organization that can't get it together.

Grade: A

2. Saquon Barkley, RB (New York Giants)

This pick was widely criticized at the time, and though he had some excellent seasons with the Giants, the first player on this list showed us what a lousy team can do to a player's production. It's a shame that such an inept organization wasted years of Barkley's career.

SAQUON BARKLEY PUTS THE ICING ON THE CAKE.

Barkley tonight:
26 carries
255 rushing yards
2 touchdowns

302 SCRIMMAGE YARDS. pic.twitter.com/ros2lJ5nKk

— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) November 25, 2024

For the player he was that we've now seen on a team that actually knows what it's doing, Barkley is elite. He was one of the best RB prospects in college football history, and he's proven that the faith in him was justified. The problem is that you need to build a team around a running back to maximize their usefulness and production.

New York couldn't do that. They've been mostly awful for over a decade now. It's tempting to grade this pick lower because of the Giants' failures, but doing so would indirectly blame Barkley for things that aren't his fault. Yet, the pick does get a slight ding because selecting RBs so high isn't always a great idea.

Barkley is insanely elite and elevated a team with a bad passer of a quarterback to a Super Bowl this season. The Giants are just terrible.

Grade: A

3. Sam Darnold, QB (New York Jets)

The other New York franchise is somehow equally incompetent, regularly fielding terrible teams and making awful decisions with roster management, personnel, and coaching. Firing former head coach Robert Saleh, the architect of one of the best defenses in the league, just to hire another defensive-minded head coach was an interesting move.

And it was emblematic of their decision-making skills. Darnold is a terrible NFL quarterback, and despite his good regular season with the Minnesota Vikings, he very clearly held the team back. An elite offensive line, elite pass-catchers, and excellent running back weren't enough to stop him from destroying his team's postseason dreams in one game.

“HE’S HOLDING IT TOO LONG! THROW IT MAN!” -Paul Allen

Sam Darnold is sacked for the 5th time in 2 quarters

Called by Paul Allen and Pete Bercich for KFXN in Minneapolis: pic.twitter.com/YxtjXFcQ7e

— will: Riley Greene Truther (@wrhiv_72) January 14, 2025

Darnold cannot deal with pressure in the NFL. He'll sit back and hang on to the ball until he gets sacked over and over again. That's a terrible thing for a QB to do, and you can't win playoff games like that. And the Vikings somehow made signal-callers like Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens look serviceable last season.

The debate will rage on about whether he's good, and that's not surprising. But no head coach would prefer him to be the guy at the helm.

Grade: F

4. Denzel Ward, CB (Cleveland Browns)

The Browns used the fourth overall pick to address a serious area of need -- their secondary. And by all means, it was a solid pick. Ward had a great career, and though he hasn't developed into an All-Pro, he's made the Pro Bowl four times and earned himself a five-year, $100.5 million contract extension.

Watch Denzel Ward’s eyes as he tracks this ball all the way to the ground. OUTSTANDING!! pic.twitter.com/6XaGS0cquj

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) November 15, 2019

He's fundamentally sound and a great athlete and has been a cornerstone of his team's defense since he was drafted. And at this pick, it made no sense for Cleveland to take another quarterback, as they had already taken the first one off the board.

He's defended 95 passes, caught 17 interceptions, forced four fumbles, and been one of the better corners in the league so far. With so many players busting, it's hard to criticize the Browns for this pick.

Grade: A

5. Bradley Chubb, LB (Denver Broncos)

Chubb immediately put together a 12.0 sack season after being drafted by the Denver Broncos with the No. 5 overall pick. Unfortunately, an ACL tear cut his 2019 season short. He came back and recorded 10.0 sacks in 2020 before playing just seven games in 2021 due to injury issues.

Ailments continued to nag him over the next two years, and it wasn't until 2023 that he played almost full season again, recording 11.0 more sacks and forcing six fumbles along with defending two passes. Another ACL tear landed him on the physically unable to perform list and axed his entire 2024 season.

Bradley Chubb is:
- 26 years old
- 5th in sacks (6)
- 18th in pressures (26)
- 12th in run stops (11)

Elite pass rusher entering his prime and now he’s a Miami Dolphin 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/eXfbd0FUys

— Kev ☔️ (@HollywoodxKev) November 1, 2022

By all means, when healthy, he's been an excellent pass-rusher. He's a menace for opposing teams when he's on the field. And it's hard to predict injuries, as they can be mercurial, and in contact sports, luck plays a huge factor. But players who log 10.0 or more sacks in their healthy seasons are incredibly valuable to NFL franchises.

This was a good pick by the Broncos. He's just had some very bad fortune.

Grade: B+

6. Quenton Nelson, OG (Indianapolis Colts)

Nelson was on an absolutely dominant run and was widely regarded as one of the NFL's best offensive guards before injury issues caused his play to decline. However, he's been the cornerstone of an offensive line that's consistently been one of the better units in the league.

Quenton Nelson was dominant on Sunday. This is just one of many elite showings he had in the run game vs. Tennessee pic.twitter.com/9taSVmFFvP

— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) December 23, 2024

And he's shown plenty more elite play this season, indicating that he's recovered well from his ailments or is feeling much better. He was a key piece of running back Jonathan Taylor's dominant 2021 season when he rushed for 1,811 yards and 14 touchdowns.

He's been a wrecking ball as a run-blocker and excellent in pass protection as well. When not dealing with maladies of some sort, he's one of the league's best offensive linemen. This was a home-run pick by Indy and has played an important part in their offensive success since then.

Elite offensive linemen are the second-most important players to nail your picks on, with the first obviously being QBs. And with quarterback Andrew Luck still not having retired at this point, Nelson was the best possible pick they could have made.

Grade: A+

So Did These Teams Screw It Up By Not Drafting Allen?

Not really. Other than the Jets, of course, which isn't a huge surprise, as they have no idea how to find good quarterbacks. The other teams all made great picks, considering their situations and draft spots. Not a single pick got a grade lower than B+, aside from Darnold.

And even that B+ graded player, the linebacker Chubb, probably would have warranted an "A" grade if he had stayed healthy. Overall, the first seven picks of the 2018 NFL Draft, save for the Jets' pick, were shrewd and worthwhile selections that provided their teams with excellent players who became important parts of their franchises.

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