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Welcome back, NASCAR fans. I hope you enjoyed the two-week Olympic break, because now it's full steam ahead for the next 14 weeks.
After Aric Almirola's shocking upset at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (if you're a weekly reader, I warned you!), NASCAR returns to Watkins Glen International for the first time in two years with a fun playoff battle on our hands. Because most drivers outside the cutoff -- except for Austin Dillon -- are in a must-win scenario over the final four weeks of the regular season, strategy will be played this weekend at Watkins Glen.
Watkins Glen will mark the fifth road course race of the 2021 season. Hendrick Motorsports has been victorious in three of the first four, and dominated at the Daytona International Speedway road course only to come up short at the end. So, as unpredictable as the last two Cup races have been at New Hampshire and Atlanta Motor Speedway, expect the same old same old this weekend. But, let's see who you should have an eye on, especially when it comes to darkhorses at Watkins Glen.
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Kyle Busch
(DraftKings $10,900 | FanDuel $12,500 | DK SportsBook +750)
Because Kyle Busch had a disastrous day at New Hampshire -- wrecked from the lead on lap 6 because of rain -- the No. 18 Toyota will start from 20th on Sunday. Starting mid-pack, Busch is the most expensive driver on DraftKings this weekend.
But a top price of $10,900 isn't too expensive; meaning you could add one or potentially two other big-name drivers. That'll come in handy, given driver talent on road courses that make up the Cup Series.
Busch is always sporty at Watkins Glen, having two prior wins (2008, 2013). Dating back to 2006, he's earned 12 top-10 finishes in 14 starts at the famed road course with six top-five finishes. This is a good start to your lineup.
Chase Elliott
(DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $14,500 | DK SportsBook +200)
Another driver to think about centering that lineup around is Chase Elliott. That shouldn't be much of a surprise, given the No. 9 Chevrolet has won seven of the last 11 road course races.
Elliott's also won two straight at Watkins Glen, which included his first Cup victory in 2018. Seven of his 13 career victories have come on road courses. At just 25 years old, one could argue that Elliott is already the best road course driver in NASCAR history, despite sitting third on the all-time win's list (behind Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart).
At $10,600 on DraftKings, Elliott is a steal. He is, however, much more expensive on FanDuel at $14,500. With a hefty price tag on FanDuel, you'll be left scrambling to fill out the remainder of the lineup. But having led 80 of 90 laps in 2019 at the Glen, he's worth picking up.
Kyle Larson
(DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +450)
If Elliott has been the best on road courses this season, which he has, Kyle Larson is a solid number two. In dominating fashion, the No. 5 Chevrolet won at Sonoma Raceway, and was sitting in prime position to win at Circuit of The Americas before a torrential downpour halted the race. Larson finished second.
At the Daytona road course, Larson was ahead of Christopher Bell -- the eventual winner -- when he wrecked with fresh tires. At Road America last month, the No. 5 car was sitting inside the top five when he was spun by his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Alex Bowman.
All this is to say, you can't go wrong having Larson in your lineup at Watkins Glen. In six starts at WGI, the California native has a trio of top 10s, including a fourth-place outing in his rookie season. The No. 5 car will start fourth.
Kurt Busch
(DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $10,500 | DK SportsBook +2000)
If you think about it, Kurt Busch shouldn't be much of a darkhorse on road courses. However, he does have just win during his 21-year full-time Cup career when turning left and right (Sonoma 2011). When it comes to Watkins Glen, he's seen a couple potential victories slip away.
In 19 starts at The Glen, Busch has 10 top-10 finishes, including three top fives -- two of which have come since 2014. Dating back to 2013, the 2003 champion hasn't finished worse than 11th at the famed road course. And this season alone, Busch has been ultra competitive in the four road courses, having three finishes inside the top six.
Busch is an underrated road course driver, and a solid pick this weekend if you're looking to lay money down with 20-1 odds of winning. The No. 1 Chevrolet starts 17th, meaning there's room to improve.
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Christopher Bell
(DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $11,200| DK SportsBook +1500)
Many people were surprised when Christopher Bell picked up his first Cup win at the Daytona road course. But if you take a deep dive at the numbers, it shouldn't be all that surprising.
During his two-year Xfinity Series stint, Bell won at Road America and had runner-up finishes in two other starts on road courses. In his rookie Cup season last year, the finishes might not be appealing, but he led six laps at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL and spent a chunk of the race inside the top five.
When it comes to the road courses this season, Bell scored the win at Daytona; had disappointing runs at COTA and Sonoma, but finished second to Elliott at Road America. He also finished runner-up in the series' most recent race at New Hampshire. This No. 20 team is on an upward trend.
Ross Chastain
(DraftKings $8,100 | FanDuel $8,500 | DK SportsBook +4000)
When it comes to road courses in 2021, Ross Chastain has put together a string of eye-opening finishes. At COTA, he picked up his first career top-five finish at the Cup level. The No. 42 team backed up that performance at Sonoma and Road America with a pair of seventh-place finishes.
So, it shouldn't come as a shocker that Chastain is a tad pricy for Watkins Glen. If you're looking to put some money down on a driver that could potentially upset the field, the No. 42 car might be the best pick.
Nonetheless, Chastain will roll off from 12th position on Sunday. The No. 42 team has heated up over the summer, earning five top 10s in the last nine races. Another positive for Chastain entering the weekend is he knows he'll have a full-time ride at Trackhouse Racing in 2022, driving the No. 1 Chevrolet.
Tyler Reddick
(DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $8,800 | DK SportsBook +4000)
With how well Tyler Reddick has ran on road courses in 2021, it's a bit surprising to see the No. 8 Chevrolet listed at just $8,000 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel. Straight up, he's shown speed to contend for victories when turning left and right this season.
Unfortunately for Reddick, his points position is going to be a factor in how the No. 8 team is going to have to play its strategy. Despite likely having speed that could contend for a top-five run, Reddick needs maximum points, which doesn't bode well come track position in the final stage. And, oh yeah, it's tough to pass at Watkins Glen.
Because of that, Reddick might be a risky pick this weekend, as it's very possible he doesn't finish where his car should. He will begin the 220-mile race from 13th.
Daniel Suarez
(DraftKings $7,500 | FanDuel $7,500 | DK SportsBook +8000)
If you want to go out on a limb this weekend, Daniel Suarez is a good selection. Though having just three prior Cup starts at Watkins Glen, the Mexico native has shown real promise.
In his rookie campaign, Suarez won his first career stage at Watkins Glen en route to a third-place finish. In 2018, he drove the No. 19 car to a fourth-place result. In his one start with Stewart-Haas Racing, he didn't far too well, placing 17th.
Entering this weekend, Suarez is in a must win, sitting nearly 200 points below the cutline. The No. 99 Chevrolet starts mid-pack in 21st, giving you room to work with.
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