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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Watkins Glen on Sunday for the penultimate race before the Cup Series playoffs begin. Can any surprise driver find a way to lock himself into the playoff field with a win this weekend?
Last year, Kyle Larson won here, with A.J. Allmendinger finishing second. This is likely Allmendinger's best shot to steal a playoff bid, as he won here in 2014 with JTG-Daugherty. He's got a total of four top fives and seven top 10s here.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Go Bowling at the Glen on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 8/20/23 at 3:18 PM ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Chase Elliott
Starts 15th - DK: $11,000, FD: $14,000
After missing a chunk of this season with an injury suffered while skiing, the 2020 Cup Series champion finds himself needing to win one of the next two races to make the playoff field. Can he do it?
Maybe. He's a two-time winner at Watkins Glen in the Cup Series, and he's finished in the top four in four consecutive races here, leading double-digit laps in three of those. He was especially dominant in 2019, winning the pole and the race while leading 80 of the 90 laps.
He'll have to come from 15th on Sunday if he wants to win, his worst starting spot here since 2016. But he's shown this season he can have good runs at road courses despite a poor starting spot. At the Chicago street race, he started way back in 26th but finished third. He's finished top five in all three of his road course starts in 2023.
Daniel Suarez
Starts 14th - DK: $9,500, FD: $11,000
Suarez has had a pretty up-and-down season at road courses. He finished outside top 20 at COTA, Sonoma, and Chicago before finally having a strong run at Indianapolis last weekend, winning the pole and finishing third in the race. He led six laps in the race.
I think this weekend can look closer to Indy than it looks like the other three races. Suarez has three top fives in five Cup Series races at Watkins Glen, including last year's fifth-place finish. And his lone Cup Series victory came at Sonoma last season. Add in some place differential upside since he starts 14th and you get a solid play here, though I definitely like the value more on DraftKings than FanDuel.
Ty Gibbs
Starts Fourth - DK: $8,600, FD: $8,200
Here's my high-risk, high-reward play of the week. Ty Gibbs starts fourth, and he's never finished better than fifth in a Cup Series race. On the surface, that would make him a driver to fade—too much potential for negative place differential here.
But Gibbs has run really well at Watkins Glen in the lower series. In 2021, he won the Xfinity Series race here, leading 43 of 82 laps, and on Saturday he was dominant in the Xfinity race, leading 70 laps. He ultimately finished 17th in that one though, as he was spun in overtime by Sam Mayer. Still, for much of the day, Gibbs was the best car on the track.
At some point, Gibbs is going to have a breakthrough and win a race. Based on his career track record, that's likely going to be at a road course. He'll have some extra motivation on Sunday as he looks to rebound from Saturday's disappointing ending and lock up a playoff berth.
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Alex Bowman
Starts 18th - DK: $8,000, FD: $8,000
Like teammate Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman needs a win this weekend or next weekend to make the playoffs. It's less likely that Bowman is able to get that win, but I do think he can have a strong run on Sunday.
Bowman got some extra track time here on Saturday in the Xfinity race, starting second, leading four laps, and finishing ninth in his first Xfinity start of 2023. And last weekend at Indianapolis, he finished fifth, one of two top fives that Bowman has had on road courses this season.
I don't think "Alex Bowman" when I think about NASCAR's best road course racers, but he has an average finish of 15.5 in 28 road course starts, a number that's dragged down by his time driving for the BK Racing backmarker team. He's never been particularly good at Watkins Glen, but he does have three top-15 finishes here.
Chase Briscoe
Starts 26th - DK: $7,300, FD: $7,200
Last weekend, Briscoe finished sixth at Indianapolis. It was the 19th top 10 of his Cup Series career. Five of those have come in his 17 road course starts, a 29.4% rate. Overall, 19.8% of his starts are top 10s, or 17.7% of his non-road course starts.
The point is, Briscoe's got some chops on road courses. That makes him a strong place differential play on Sunday. It concerns me that the Stewart Haas cars had no qualifying speed once again, with all four starting 26th or worse, but Briscoe's worth the risk.
Ryan Preece
Starts 30th - DK: $5,600, FD: 5,500
Preece is really appealing this weekend because of his price, as he's under $6,000 on both platforms. You just have to hope this race doesn't go like last weekend's race, where he started 30th and never got any forward momentum, finishing 31st.
That's a concern, but he's also had some solid runs at road courses this season. At Chicago, he went from 28th to 15th and at Sonoma, from 22nd to 13th. The fact that he has top-15 upside at this price makes him worth a play.
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