George Springer to Blue Jays - Fantasy Impact

Throughout this year's offseason, we've repeatedly heard about how the Blue Jays were interested in several marquee free agents, but weeks passed with no action. Fans grew frustrated as they watched Francisco Lindor get traded to the Mets and DJ LeMahieu re-sign with the Yankees. Doubt crept into the minds of many observers - perhaps the Blue Jays were going to struggle to sign any stars because of the uncertainty surrounding their location for the upcoming season.

On early Wednesday morning, these concerns disappeared - the Blue Jays landed one of the biggest fish in this year's free-agent market, signing George Springer to a six-year deal worth $150 million. This is a big move for a team already flush with young and talented hitters, as Springer solidifies the top of the order in this potent lineup. The addition of Springer gives the Blue Jays one of the best lineups in baseball.

So the question now becomes, how does this move affect Springer's fantasy value? In this article, we'll review Springer's 2020 season and compare it to 2019 to examine if there were any changes in approach or decline in skills. We'll also analyze his new team context with the Blue Jays to see if it has any impact on his upside for run production. Let's dive in.

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2020 Review

Springer's surface stats were down in the shortened season. Let's take a look if this was resulting from any decline in skills or if it was due to the small sample:

As we can see, there is nothing to worry about with Springer. His expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG) were both higher than his actual BA and SLG, while his BABIP was only .259, indicating that he had bad luck on balls in play. Springer's plate discipline and exit velocity remained in line with career norms and his zone contact (Z-Contact%) actually improved, which demonstrates that there was no evidence of a decline in skills, as he was still able to connect on pitches in the zone. In fact, if we look at his splits, we can see that he started to turn the corner in the second half:

Springer improved in every category in the second half of the season, demonstrating that his lower surface stats are a result of a slow start in a shortened season. It's likely that his numbers would have aligned with his career norms if it were a 162-game season.

Change in Approach?

It's interesting to note that Springer appeared to make a conscious effort to put the ball in the air more in 2020. His groundball rate (GB%) decreased by 8.7%, while his fly-ball rate (FB%) increased by 7.4%. He also pulled the ball at a greater rate (7.7% increase) and raised his launch angle (LA°) by eight degrees. These developments are encouraging for Springer's fantasy value because it gives him more power upside. Whether this change in approach was merely a result of a small sample or something that will stick going forward remains to be seen, but it's definitely something to monitor with optimism.

Team Context

The Blue Jays finished the 2020 season with a .329 wOBA (12th), 109 wRC+ (11th), and .186 ISO (10th), while the Astros put up a .311 wOBA (18th), 99 wRC+ (17th), and .168 ISO (18th). When you add Springer to a Blue Jays lineup filled with young players on upward trajectories, it's clear that this is an improved context for run production. The Jays should have one of the best lineups in baseball with Springer in the fold. Let's take a look at their projected lineup, via Roster Resource, along with home run projections from THE BAT X.

As we can see here, there is power all over this lineup. There's a legitimate chance that every hitter in this lineup hits 20+ home runs. This offense is going to be explosive and Springer should score a ton of runs hitting in the leadoff spot - 120+ runs are certainly within his range of outcomes.  The team will likely look to sign a third baseman (or second baseman and move Biggio to third), as they plan on using Vlad Jr. at first base - they have been linked to Kolten Wong this offseason. Needless to say, it's likely that the Blue Jays are not done yet and we'll still see some changes to this lineup. Regardless, it projects as one of the best in baseball with as much power as any team.

Let's move on to the ballpark factors, courtesy of ESPN. We'll take a look at 2019 due to the small sample in 2020 and because the Blue Jays played in Buffalo last season.

Rogers Centre looks to be a slight upgrade on Minute Maid Park, grading as the top ballpark for homers in 2019. When you consider Springer's increased flyball rate in 2020, it's certainly possible that we see him approach his 2019 career-high of 39 home runs. If the Blue Jays remain in Buffalo for the upcoming season, it's good news because Sahlen Field is a bandbox.

2021 Outlook

THE BAT X projects Springer to slash .269/.369/.497 with 87 runs, 30 homers, 81, RBI, and six stolen bases. There's a good chance that he eclipses his runs total as the leadoff hitter for one of the best lineups in baseball. I'd also project Springer to hit closer to 40 home runs because of the changes in approach along with the opportunity to play in bandboxes like Rogers Centre, Fenway Park, Camden Yards, and Yankee Stadium.

Springer is currently being drafted as the 13th outfielder off the board at a 52 ADP in NFBC league. He offers a nice combination of floor and improved upside with the move to Toronto. I'd take Springer over Eloy Jimenez (39 ADP) without hesitation.

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