RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~152 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~193
ANALYSIS: Not surprisingly, Smith fell back to Earth after an incredible 2022 season, which saw him finish as the QB8 with an 18.7 PPG average. Smith finished as the QB22 this past season, and his PPG average fell to 15.4. That's not ideal, but let's dive deeper into this.
Tackle Charles Cross missed three games last year, guard Phil Haynes missed nine, and tackle Abraham Lucas missed 11. That lack of continuity on the O-line caused many more issues, and Smith was under more pressure this past season than in 2022. A healthier season from his front five blockers should help Smith's consistency and performance in 2024.
"Geno Smith was not the problem in this offense last year." @minakimes shared a shocking stat on Geno Smith 👀 pic.twitter.com/iJoXjYKIzJ
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) May 24, 2024
From a per-game standpoint, Smith averaged just two fewer completions and 10 fewer passing yards on essentially the same number of pass attempts per game. Smith scored far fewer points for two reasons. His touchdown rate fell from 5.2% to 4.0%, and his rushing yards fell by 211. However, despite that dip in scoring, Smith's final 2023 ranking is still above his current 2024 ADP.
Seattle did lose their offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, which could be what is factoring in Smith's cheap cost. The organization replaced him with Ryan Grubb, former offensive coordinator for the Washington Huskies. Based on the offenses he ran at Washington, Seattle might implement a more pass-heavy offense than the one they ran last year when they finished 17th.
What Grubb also did at Washington was attack defenses vertically and down-field with regularity. A bigger emphasis on the downfield passing attack would also be a change from last year. Smith finished 26th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in intended air yards per pass attempt with a 7.0-yard average.
With a potentially more pass-heavy and down-field attacking system, a healthy offensive line, and all three of his receivers returning, Smith's current ADP is very appealing. Quarterback is a very deep position, and it's hard to imagine Smith finishing any higher than QB16 given the strength at the position, but he's a solid bet to outplay his current positional ranking.
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