RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega this weekend for the GEICO 500. This is one of the most unpredictable tracks on the NASCAR circuit, a place where huge crashes can change the entire outlook of the race in the blink of an eye.
For example, Saturday's Xfinity Series race featured a ton of late-race incidents, which led to top-five finishes from Leland Honeyman and Brennan Poole, as well as a seventh for Caesar Bacarella. The Cup Series usually isn't that unpredictable here, but we have seen some surprises here over the years. Last October, only three of the top 10 finishers were playoff drivers, for example.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the GEICO 500 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 4/21/2024 at 3:18 p.m. EST. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Ryan Blaney
Starts 21st - DK: $11,000, FD: $13,000
When the Cup Series was here in October, Ryan Blaney drove the No. 12 car to victory lane, leading eight laps in a race that featured 70 lead changes. Blaney was out front for the final two laps.
Blaney starts 21st on Sunday, giving the Penske driver some really solid place differential upside. He's a three-time winner at this track, but more important than that is how he's run here over the last two years since NASCAR moved to this new car. Blaney has a win and two second-place finishes in that span. He's led double-digit laps in three of the last four Talladega races, with the only race in that span that he didn't pace the field for that long coming in last season's win.
Kyle Larson
Starts 38th - DK: $9,000, FD: $10,000
CHALK ALERT CHALK ALERT CHALK ALERT.
Everybody's going to have Kyle Larson in their DFS lineups this weekend, so fading him in GPPs is probably smart. Still, I've got to mention him here because you almost have to play him in Cash games.
NEWS: Kyle Larson will not be allowed to qualify here at Dega. They made an unapproved adjustment to the roof rails as they pushed the car to the grid. Any further penalties to be announced later this week.
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) April 20, 2024
Larson didn't make a qualifying attempt, so he'll start Sunday's race way back in 38th. Considering he's relatively cheap compared to normal because he's been priced down because this is a superspeedway, this is a pretty solid value. Of course, part of that is because he historically struggles at superspeedways, with just one top-five and three top-10s in 18 Talladega starts. Still, the place differential upside for the current points leader can't be ignored.
Ross Chastain
Starts 32nd - DK: $8,700, FD: $9,500
Place differential is king at Talladega, so that's the main focus of my DFS picks this week. Ross Chastain starts back in 32nd, making him a pretty obvious option for us.
Chastain has just two top-10 finishers in 10 Talladega starts, but one of those was a win in 2022 and the other was a fourth, also in 2022. He's had top fives in half his starts here since moving to Trackhouse, though last time the series was here he crashed out and finished 37th.
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Starts 33rd - DK: $7,600, FD: $6,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. always seems to find himself up front at Talladega, but he isn't always able to finish there. Earlier in his career, Stenhouse had a string of good finishes here, including a win in 2017. However, he's now finished outside the top 10 in seven consecutive Talladega races.
Olive Branch native and DCHS alumnus Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won at Talladega today for his first NASCAR Cup Series victory! #TeamDCS
— Cory Uselton (@cory_uselton) May 8, 2017
If he was starting inside the top 30, I'd probably fade him because of his recent iffy results here. But with Stenhouse starting way back in 33rd, the place differential upside is too strong to ignore.
Noah Gragson
Starts 36th - DK: $6,800, FD: $5,000
Noah Gragson's run better than expected since moving to Stewart-Haas Racing, with two top 10s already after he had none in his rookie season. His average finish last year was 28.2, while this year he's up to 20.1.
Gragson has made three Cup Series starts here and has a pair of top-20 finishers. Not great, but if he can just keep the car clean and be around at the end then his 36th-place starting spot will lead to a good number of place differential points.
Corey LaJoie
Starts 31st - DK: $6,600, FD: $4,800
Continuing our string of place differential options, we have Corey LaJoie, who starts 31st in the Spire Motorsports No. 7 car. LaJoie has two top 10s at Talladega in his Cup Series career as well as five Daytona top 10s. He's a fairly consistent superspeedway driver and finished fourth when the series was last here. I really love the value with Corey LaJoie on Sunday's slate.
One last thing—while I mostly highlighted drivers who start outside the top 30, don't be afraid to mix in drivers who start between 20th and 29th. Anything can happen at this track, so plenty of those guys have place differential upside as well. Really, the key here is to build a lot of very diverse lineups and to not go heavy on any particular driver, since that could destroy your chances of winning.
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