Gavin Williams - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Sleepers (2024)

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 164

CURRENT ADP: ~184 overall

ANALYSIS: Williams made his debut for Cleveland last year after starting the season in Double-A and working his way up to the big leagues in a hurry. He doesn't quite have the velocity of a Bobby Miller, but he still brings it with authority with an average four-seam fastball velocity of 95.7 mph last season.

He has two quality breaking balls with a slider he throws around 85 mph and a curveball that averages 76 mph. He also threw a changeup just 6% of the time and it was easily his worst pitch as he allowed a .353 average on changeups and it generated only a 9% SwStr%.

His strikeout upside was on full display last August when he whiffed 22 batters over two consecutive starts (against Tampa and Toronto, who are both good offenses). However, he also had three starts where he walked four hitters and he finished with a 10.7% BB%. The quality of his stuff is not in question here, it's just about developing the type of command of his pitches that someone like his fellow teammate Shane Bieber has.

If you miss out on Bobby Miller earlier in the draft, Williams has a similar ceiling (but a much lower floor) about 100 picks later. We know that Cleveland has done a tremendous job developing pitchers and Williams could be on the cusp of going from good to really good this year.

Williams skipped his last scheduled start, and while their has been optimism by the team that the injury is just minor, it now appears that he will start the season on the injured list.

Gavin Williams To Start On Injured List https://t.co/y40Asqpkpd

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) March 14, 2024

His ADP is going to drop now with the uncertainty surrounding his situation, creating an ultimate buy-low opportunity. The added risk of his injury now makes him a high-risk/reward pick.

You're damn right I'm buying the dip on Gavin Williams.

Just took him at 215 in a DC.

That's a 60 pick discount on his ADP pre-elbow concerns.

I'll take the risk that it's as minor as Guardians manager Stephen Vogt suggests.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) March 12, 2024

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