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ANALYSIS: Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Whitlock has been activated after being pushed to the 15-day injured list for right elbow neuritis.
On the season, Whitlock’s line is shockingly terrible. Through five starts, he holds a 4.31 SIERA, 1.29 WHIP, .356 opponent wOBA, and an 18.9% strikeout rate – all career worst. It is a disappointing follow-up to a stellar 2022 season where he held a 3.06 SIERA, 1.02 WHIP, .278 opponent wOBA, and a 26.4% strikeout rate in 78.1 innings.
His Achilles heel this year is his changeup, with a +4 run value on the pitch (only 13 pitchers have a worse run value when using their changeup). While it has never been his star pitch, it still held a -4 run value in 2022 and has generally enhanced the effectiveness of his sinker throughout his career. His sinker has consequently fared worse this season, with a positive run value on the pitch as well.
Garrett Whitlock, 94mph Two Seamer and 84mph Changeup, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/tr0NK6vo7o
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2021
Though in his first start since returning, Whitlock was spectacular, allowing just one run and three hits in five innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks. His second start was less spectacular, with four runs allowed in 4-and-2/3rds innings, but he ultimately had only a 2.43 FIP against a strong Rays offense.
This recent improvement can be attributed almost solely to improvements made to his changeup. In his last two starts, his changeup has averaged roughly 38 inches of break, compared to 30 inches in three starts prior. That has resulted in a .222 opponent batting average on the pitch in his last two starts, compared to a .400 opponent batting average in his first three starts.
Garrett Whitlock’s changeup gave me life last night.
It averaged 9 inches more of vertical break than it had in his previous 3 starts (from 30 ➡️ 39).
Throwing it slower/changing the grip worked. Velo dropped by 1.7 MPH, but generated 5 whiffs.pic.twitter.com/Sl6ixwM3oq
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) May 28, 2023
While his results have been underwhelming this season, improvements to his changeup should lead to fantasy production. His injury history, opponent strength, and struggles with consistency mean he should stay on waiver wires in shallow leagues, but he deserves to be rostered in all other league sizes.
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