Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF) - 2022 Fantasy Football Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~58 Overall

CURRENT ADP: ~63

ANALYSIS: The Davis hype train has been steadily gaining steam all offseason and is one that I've been aboard for over a year now. He tends to be a very polarizing player to discuss because his success has been limited to this point and he of course had the record-setting performance against the Chiefs in the playoffs.

In his first two years, Davis produced 70 receptions for 1,149 yards and 13 touchdowns, which is pretty incredible considering he was only a starter in 15 of the 30 games he played. He was very productive despite receiving minimal targets. During this time, he was buried in the depth chart as the fourth option but now finds himself as the clear No. 2. Thus, 100+ targets this year is a realistic projection, which would vastly outpace the 63 targets and 10.9% target share he received in 2021. 

What stands out most is the touchdown total, averaging 6.5 touchdowns per season in spite of his reduced playing time. This was further evidenced by the stretch he put together at the end of the last season into the playoffs. Including the playoffs, he produced 11 total receiving touchdowns last year, tying him with Dawson Knox for the team lead, giving him one more than Diggs.

All this supports the argument for Davis to have a productive season as a top-24 wide receiver with top-15 upside.

The Bills finished with 641 passing attempts in 2021 and are expected to be around that 650 mark again in 2022. Stefon Diggs had a 26% target share last year, so let's assign Davis a 20% target share as the No. 2  option. This would equate to 130 targets, which factoring in his career catch percentage of 56%, would result in 73 receptions.

Similarly, using his career yards per reception of 16.4 would equal 1,197 yards. It's possible that his catch percentage could improve with a greater variety of targets while his yards per reception could decrease with more volume but for now, we'll leave these as is.

This would provide a baseline of 36.5 fantasy points from his receptions and 119.7 fantasy points from his yards, totaling 156.2 points. That's about 9 fantasy points per week without even factoring in any touchdowns! Davis has been hyped up so much that it's possible that fantasy managers have "Davis hype fatigue" and that he's once again undervalued.

More Fantasy Football Values and Sleepers

Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 18

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues ROSTERED IN: 66% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth is the TE10 for the year, averaging 7.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While the Steelers' passing attack has been inconsistent this season, the veteran tight end has played well lately. He has five receiving […]

Mike Fanelli 2 weeks ago

Jalen McMillan (WR, TB) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 18

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues ROSTERED IN: 54% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan has been one of the top pass catchers in fantasy football lately. The rookie wide receiver is the WR10 over the past four weeks, averaging 4.8 receptions on 6.3 targets for 60.5 receiving yards and […]

Mike Fanelli 2 weeks ago

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, NO) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 18

BALLER MOVE: Add in 14-Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 1% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: New Orleans Saints Clyde Edwards-Helaire recently joined the team after spending his entire career with the Kansas City Chiefs. Furthermore, he made his team and season debut in the week 17 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The veteran running back had […]

Mike Fanelli 2 weeks ago

Julius Chestnut (RB, TEN) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 18

BALLER MOVE: Add in 14-Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 1% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: Tennessee Titans running back Julius Chestnut has had little fantasy football impact this season. The veteran running back is the RB101 for the year, averaging 0.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he got some work on offense last week in […]

Mike Fanelli 2 weeks ago

Trey Benson (RB, ARI) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 18

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12-Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 19% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: Arizona Cardinals running back Trey Benson has missed the past two games because of an ankle injury. Hopefully, the rookie running back can play in Sunday’s season finale against the San Francisco 49ers. The Cardinals could be without James Conner in Week […]

Mike Fanelli 2 weeks ago