Friday Focus: Pondering Poor Pitching

Last week, we looked at a handful of big bats who have come up small so far in 2021. Today, it's time to evaluate the pitchers who have failed to meet expectations

A common refrain from analysts in the opening weeks of the season - especially those who take a more stoic and patient approach - is "it's April." Cold streaks happen for almost every player at some point during every season; it's simply more noticeable when someone stumbles out of the gate as opposed to suffering through a swoon in the dog days of August. Sometimes these slow starts portend a disappointing season. Often, they fade from memory as regression brings about equilibrium.

Correctly diagnosing whether initial struggles will end or persist is a major factor in determining how your fantasy team's fortune will unfold. Here, then, is an attempt to do exactly that.

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Stay The Course

Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox

Though Giolito's 5.68 ERA is ugly, it's mostly the product of a disastrous outing against the Red Sox, when he allowed 10 baserunners (seven of whom scored) and recorded only three outs. That bad night still counts, of course, but it was just that - a bad night. The strikeouts have been there, as has the velocity. His walk rate isn't appreciably higher than usual, and he's actually throwing more first pitch strikes than ever.

Kenta Maeda, SP, Minnesota Twins

Let's get it out of the way now - Maeda probably shouldn't have been a top-50 pick this spring. Fantastic as he was in 2020, he benefited from some batted ball luck and his track record prior to that was more good than great. But his struggles to this point are also not reflective of his true ability. We can expect him to allow fewer hits and homers moving forward, and he continues to be among the best in the game at avoiding walks.

Worry Is Warranted

Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

Castillo has generally been a slow starter to this point in his career. April is his worst month by ERA, second-worst by walk rate and weighted on-base average, and it's the only month where he's produced fewer strikeouts than innings pitched. But we've never seen him look this bad in the opening month. He's getting hit hard enough to have failed to get past the fifth inning four times in five tries, and his strikeout rate is lower than that of Adrian Houser or the ghost of Matt Harvey. He gets the benefit of the doubt for now, but the lousy results have been mostly earned so far.

Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs

Hendricks has never thrown hard, and it's led to him being chronically undervalued in the fantasy community despite his always-reliable ratios and durability. In his first 1,047 innings in the big leagues, Hendricks allowed 104 home runs. He's already given up 10 in 22 innings this season, easily the most in the league. Also concerning: After walking three batters in a game just once from June 27, 2018 through the end of last year, he's already done that twice in 2021. Hendricks' lack of raw stuff means he has no margin for error; he needs to find his command quickly to turn things around.

Alarm Bells

Patrick Corbin, SP, Washington Nationals

There's nothing good happening here. Corbin's horrid ratios (10.47 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) are largely deserved. His velocity is down. His strikeout and walk rates are both the worst of his career. Hitters are teeing off by any conceivable metric. Nobody is this bad, but Corbin's terrible 2020 makes it difficult to believe in a turnaround.

Zach Plesac, SP, Cleveland

I did try to warn you. Plesac's strikeout gains from the shortened season have completely evaporated, and without those and an unsustainable strand rate, his issues with the long ball have contributed to an inflated 5.81 ERA. The slider hasn't been quite so dominant, which has allowed opposing hitters to feast on his subpar fastball and rendered his changeup less effective as well. The miniscule walk rate and a ground ball heavy profile might keep his numbers respectable, but fantasy managers were looking for much more when they invested a top-80 pick in his services.

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