Friday Focus: License to IL

Even before Mike Trout (calf) suffered a calf strain that will keep him out of action until the season's second half, the debate was raging amongst fantasy managers: How many injured list slots should there be?

It often feels like the players are landing on the trainer's table more than ever before, but that's actually true this year. It's not surprising, given the challenges that 2020 presented. With spring training interrupted, then a slapdash ramp-up to an ersatz shortened season, everyone's routine got wrecked. Nobody was sure how or how much that would impact the current campaign, but elevated health risks were inevitable.

Should we have expected this sort of deluge, though? Trout was merely the latest in a long line of casualties. Heirs to his #1 overall throne Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto have both missed significant time with shoulder issues. Christian Yelich's balky back has been the bane of many existences. Cody Bellinger (calf) has barely played. Adalberto Mondesi (oblique) hasn't. We're unlikely to see Luis Robert (hip) before September if at all, and that's after Eloy Jimenez (pectoral) wiped his own season out in spring training.  Corey Seager (finger) broke a finger, Starling Marte (rib) broke a rib. It might be quicker to list the core muscles George Springer (quad) hasn't tweaked. That doesn't even mention Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuna Jr., who have both avoided the IL but dealt with their own nagging injuries. And this is just the top 50 picks. It's been brutal out there - and in many cases, draconian league settings are making the problem worse.

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Better Too Much Than Not Enough...

In addition to hosting my own weekly AMA on r/fantasybaseball, I'm a regular reader of other analysts' chats, mailbags, and other features that offer personalized advice. And whether I'm in the driver's seat or simply in the audience, an overwhelmingly common lament is fantasy managers having to make gut-wrenching cuts because they're simply drowning in the red ink of IL designations. We've all been there (if you haven't, you either haven't been playing long or we all hate you), and nobody likes it.

Fantasy baseball is a game that requires both skill and patience, but almost nobody wins without some measure of luck. Good fortune can come from any number of sources, precious few of which are in any way under the sphere of our control. As the aphorism goes, any strategy can work if you pick the right players. But what happens when you picked the right players and then they start dropping like flies?

Weathering the slings and arrows of a 162-game season is a burden all fantasy managers must bear, and the ability to develop successful contingency plans is often what separates the winners from the also-rans. But having a limited number of IL slots (or, unbelievably in the Year Two Thousand Twenty Damn One, none at all) doesn't measure skill. All it does is artificially and arbitrarily increase the difficulty level. It's bad enough having to scour the waiver wire - which, depending on your league depth, could be rather barren - for a replacement without forcing managers to drop a player simply because he's hurt and there's no room left at the inn.

...But The Right Balance Is Even Better

Having said that, I've seen it suggested that there should be no cap on IL slots at all. A couple of industry titans already have this setting, but it feels like too much of a good thing. Managers shouldn't be completely hemmed in, but unfettered injury stashes are overly generous. In one of my leagues, one manager has changed his team name to reflect the fact that many players on his roster are on the shelf. But he rostered several players knowing full well at the time that they were hurt; having to use up bench spots on guys who can't go, and occasionally not even have enough healthy bodies to field a full roster, is a direct result of those choices. That sort of strategy has a downside, and it's only fair that the risk of it not be minimized by lax rules. Not imposing some sort of limit also has the effect of decreasing the quality of the waiver wire, and half the fun of playing this game is making those discoveries throughout the year.  Viewing the pool of available talent should not inspire feelings of dread, at least not all the time.

So what's the magic number? In the majority of my leagues this year, managers are given four IL slots to work with. This feels ideal, or close to it, at least for 12-teamers. Even with the rash of injuries that has befallen the sport in the first quarter of the season, I haven't often found myself with more banged-up dudes than places to put them, and that seems to be the case for most of the competition as well. But there have been enough strains and sprains and the like to keep me from being able to stash injured players simply because I can.

Some leagues have more teams, or deeper benches, that might change the calculus a bit. I have no quarrel with a commissioner offering a large number bench spots in lieu of additional IL designations. In the end, the league should be set up the way that the people playing in it like best. But there are too many complaints about inflexibility in the face of injuries for me to believe that most people want those sort of strictures in place.

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