RADIO
Week 8 wasn't too bad for us here. We’ll get the bad out of the way first as we dropped a full unit on the Miami Dolphins when they blew a nine-point fourth-quarter lead and lost on a last-second field goal to the Arizona Cardinals. It looks like Arizona is a little better than most people thought and Miami is still bad even with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. Our big win of the week was nailing the Cleveland Browns against the spread and on the moneyline against the Baltimore Ravens. As a result, we finished up 1.06 units for the week. It’s always good to walk away with a profit. Many thanks to Jameis Winston and the Browns.
We’ll look to finish in the green again this week with two more plays. Let’s get cracking and get back in the win column so we can cash these tickets at the pay window.
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Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were in the headlines this week after benching second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco. While Flacco doesn’t bring nearly the same athleticism that Richardson does to the table, he is a better quarterback and will be a boost to the offense.
FLACCO TO PIERCE FOR A 65-YARD TD TO TIE IT.
JOE FLACCO MAGIC.
📺: #INDvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/8Ce2qHZYMw— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Indianapolis’ defense had a rough start to the year, but it has slowly been getting better and ranks 13th in overall defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. Minnesota’s defense has been its calling card this season, but it is starting to show some cracks in the last two weeks.
The key to slowing down the Vikings defense has been defending the constant barrage of blitzes. The Colts offensive line ranks first in PFF’s Pass Blocking Grade, so it should have success handling Minnesota’s pressure. If it does, that will allow Flacco to pick apart a vulnerable Minnesota secondary.
This might seem like a good spot to buy low on the Vikings coming off two straight losses, but we’re starting to see some chinks in the armor following the team’s 5-0 start. This should be a close game, and I expect the Colts to hang around and possibly steal a win. I make the Vikings -3.5 favorites here and will take the value on the road dog.
Pick: Colts +5.5 (-110) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. New England Patriots
These teams enter Week 9 coming off wildly different games. New England pulled off an upset victory over the division-rival New York Jets while Tennessee was throttled by the Detroit Lions.
Both teams have struggled to consistently score points, but the Titans have a trump card with their defense. Tennessee ranks ninth in overall defensive DVOA, while the Patriots rank 30th in the same metric. The Titans also rank higher than New England in total team and offensive DVOA as well.
New England will likely be starting Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in this game. He offers considerably less upside than rookie Drake Maye, who suffered a concussion last week and probably won’t suit up.
One of the real strengths of Tennessee’s defense is its ability to defend the run as it ranks sixth in defensive rushing DVOA. Expect the Titans defense to limit the Patriots ground attack and force Brissett to beat them through the air. That will be a tough ask for a New England offense that lacks playmakers at the receiver position.
I make Tennessee closer to a five-point favorite in this game in my own rankings. It holds a significant edge on the defensive side of the ball that should be the deciding factor regardless of who starts at quarterback.
This is a good spot to fade New England coming off a surprise upset win over a division foe, so we’re going to back the small home favorite.
Pick: Titans -3 (-120) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .6 Units to Win .5 Units
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