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Well, unfortunately, we failed to keep our momentum rolling and had a 0-2 record last week. The Vikings couldn't close out the Lions late and lost on a last-second field goal. We also had a tough loss with Green Bay winning but missing a cover by half a point. That’s the second time we’ve lost a game by a half point in this column, so we’ve been running a little unlikely there. Luckily, both bets last week were smaller and we only lost 1.2 units.
We’ve got a couple of plays this week that will hopefully get us back on track. So let’s not waste any time and get to the action.
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Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Miami has been an absolute disaster since Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 2. The offense has completely fallen apart, and head coach Mike McDaniel has struggled to adjust without his signal-caller. It does make you question Miami’s decision to roll with Skylar Thompson as its QB2 as well as McDaniel’s coaching ability.
Those are discussions for another day, though, as Miami is set to welcome back Tagovailoa this week. He gets a fantastic matchup as Arizona’s defense has been one of the worst in the league.
The Cardinals rank 26th in defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy, and allow the seventh-most passing yards per game. Arizona also ranks just 30th in PFF’s Pass Rushing Grade. Put it all together and this is an ideal spot for Tagovailoa and Miami’s offense to get back on track.
Tagovailoa likely won’t be under much pressure and will have plenty of time to pick apart Arizona’s secondary. The Cardinals are also on short rest and coming off an upset victory on Monday Night Football.
This is a great spot to fade Arizona and back the Dolphins as they welcome back their QB1.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-105) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
Cleveland Browns (+9.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
It's been tough sledding for the Browns this year. Most of that can be attributed to the atrocious play of quarterback Deshaun Watson. However, Watson is no longer in the picture after suffering a torn Achilles tendon. That leaves Jameis Winston as the team’s starter moving forward.
Browns HC Kevin Stefanski announces QB Jameis Winston will start this week vs. Ravens. pic.twitter.com/lnBwWNGjm4
— NFL (@NFL) October 23, 2024
Normally, I would drop a team in my power rankings after a move to a backup quarterback. In this instance, however, the Browns are most likely better without Watson, and I moved them up as a result.
Winston taking over as signal-caller could be the shot of adrenaline the Browns need to try and turn around their season. The players are all taking Watson’s back publicly, but they see the same things we do. It’s hard to imagine the offense being any worse with Winston at the helm.
With better quarterback play, this offense can have success against a Ravens defense that ranks 18th in defensive passing DVOA and 20th in PFF’s pass coverage grade. The Jameis Winston experience is always a roller-coaster ride, but he should have success moving the ball through the air in this game. Cleveland is also changing play-callers as offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is also looking to bring new life to the Browns’ floundering offense.
Division games in the AFC North are notoriously difficult and points are usually at a premium. I’m taking the points with the home dog and will be sprinkling a bit on the moneyline (as well as some alt lines) as I think the Browns are live for an upset.
Pick: Browns +9.5 (-115) and Moneyline (+350) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit on Browns -9.5
Risk .3 Units to Win 1.16 Units on Browns ML
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