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We took one on the chin last week with a 0-2 record. The Steelers and Jets put up a couple of clunkers that ultimately ruined our day. New York dropped a game against a Broncos team that might not be as bad as we originally thought. These things happen. Pittsburgh’s loss was a little more frustrating as it couldn’t stop a Colts team that seemed completely lost the previous two weeks. It's tough but all part of the roller-coaster ride of an 18-week season.
There’s some good value available on the card this week and a few ways we can attack it. We’re going with a small home favorite and a road dog as we look to right the ship and get back on track.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
We’re going back to the well with this pick. Pittsburgh let us down last week but this is a good spot to back the home favorites. The Cowboys are extremely banged up. They will likely be without defenders Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence and these are huge losses to the defense.
The Steelers rank higher in offensive, defensive, and total team DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. They should also hold a significant edge in the trenches. Dallas only ranks 21st in PFF’s pass-blocking grade. The Steelers currently rank sixth in Adjusted Sack Rate but are tied for 11th in the league in sacks.
We could be in store for a big correction in this game as T.J. Watt could have a field day against Dallas’ offensive front.
TJ Watt comes alive.
📺: #LACvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/hAqQagcH86— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
The Cowboys' porous run defense held up against the New York Giants last week, but they could have trouble stopping a Pittsburgh ground attack that averages over 128 rushing yards per game.
Simply put -- the Steelers are the better team, and I make them nearly 4.5-point favorites in my rankings.
Pick: Steelers -1.5 (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Chiefs offense took a major hit when they lost star receiver Rashee Rice to a knee injury last week. His absence paired with the loss of running back Isiah Pacheco could stifle their attack.
New Orleans ranks higher than Kansas City in offensive, defensive, and total team DVOA. The Saints boast plenty of speed on offense and could find success attacking a Chiefs secondary that ranks 19th in defensive passing DVOA and allows the 10th-most passing yards per game. A heavy dose of play-action passing combined with Alvin Kamara on the ground could be highly successful.
Backing Derek Carr is always a gamble, but the Saints have the ability on defense to get pressure on Patrick Mahomes and slow down a Kansas City offense that suddenly is devoid of playmakers. However, it always has the trump card that is Mahomes in its back pocket.
MAHOMES TO WORTHY FOR A 54-YARD TD.
📺: #KCvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ZAYGWXNr1V— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
The key will be whether the Saints offensive line can handle the Chiefs pass rush. If they do, then Derek Carr could have himself a game and New Orleans could be a live dog. Either way, this is too many points in what should be a low-scoring defensive battle.
Pick: Saints +5.5 (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
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