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Well, we had our first chaos week in the NFL in Week 2. We saw several big favorites lose and some surprising victories by others. It’s important to remember that despite what we’ve seen, it’s very early in the season and things are not always what they seem. Keep that in mind before overreacting to anything.
We went 1-0-1 last week with our plays. Green Bay scored an upset win over Indianapolis thanks to a dominant rushing attack (which we also correctly predicted). We were all set to pick up an easy cover with the Texans over the Bears until a Cam Akers fumble at the goal line upended those plans. That allowed the Bears to sneak into the backdoor, and we ended up with a push. Tough one, but those are the breaks of the game. We will dust ourselves off, get back on the horse, and keep going this week.
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Dallas Cowboys (+1) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Both of these teams are coming off extremely disappointing Week 2 performances. Dallas lost spectacularly to an upstart New Orleans Saints offense.
CARR TO SHAHEED 70 YARDS 🔥
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/GV0MW5cduw— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
However, Baltimore’s loss was particularly disturbing as it blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the Gardner Minshew II-led Las Vegas Raiders.
WE AINT GOING NOWHERE 😤#LVvsBAL | 📺 @ParamountPlus pic.twitter.com/IwDxFkwp6c
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) September 15, 2024
That dropped Baltimore to 0-2, but it is not as bad as the record suggests. The Ravens are ninth in team total DVOA and fourth in offensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.
Dallas’ defense under Mike Zimmer looked like it would pick up right where it left off under Dan Quinn with a dominant game against the Browns in Week 1. However, it was completely unmade by Derek Carr and Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
Baltimore should have success running the ball in this game as Dallas ranks 31st in defensive rush DVOA and 20th in rushing yards allowed per game. This feels like it could be a big Derrick Henry blowup spot if Baltimore gets a lead early. The Ravens also have a major coaching advantage in the game with John Harbaugh compared to Mike McCarthy.
Data aside, this game boils down to whether you think it’s more likely a Mike McCarthy-led Cowboys team drops two straight games at home or a Lamar Jackson/John Harbaugh team to start 0-3.
I know where my money is going.
Pick: Ravens -1 (-110) Bet MGM
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Washington Commanders
Cincinnati looks to right the ship after a 0-2 start to the year. The Bengals draw a nice matchup with the Washington Commanders on Monday night.
It’s a good time to fade Washington as it is coming off its first win of the season. It played well enough to get the win against the Giants, but this is still a very flawed team. Washington ranks dead last in defensive DVOA, and it is going to have issues defending the Bengals offense.
Washington should have some success rushing the football in this game as Cincinnati has struggled defending the run following the departure of D.J. Reader. Ultimately, though, Washington’s secondary will be its undoing. Joe Burrow and the passing game should have a field day against this defense.
This is a perfect get-right spot for the Bengals after a tough loss to the Chiefs. I don’t anticipate a Joe Burrow-led team starting 0-3. Expect Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and the offense to have a big performance in prime time.
Pick: Bengals -7.5: (-105) Bet MGM
Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
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