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Last week, we were correct in fading the Miami Dolphins when the market was backing them against the Houston Texans. Houston covered the 2.5-point spread and got the 20-12 victory. The Broncos also won handily over the Indianapolis Colts by a 31-13 margin to give us an easy cover. As a result, we finished Week 15 up two units with a 2-0 outing. There’s nothing like a winning week to cure all your woes.
We’ve been heating up late in the season and are up 4.7 units over the last few weeks. Glad to see we are finishing the season on a high note. This week, we’re backing two more favorites. Let’s hope they get the job done and keep our momentum rolling.
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New York Jets (+3) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Jets are coming off a 32-25 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, while Los Angeles is fresh off a 12-6 victory over the division-rival San Francisco 49ers.
New York’s offense finally put some points on the board, but that was against a Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. The Los Angeles defense hasn’t been among the league’s best, but its pass rush could give Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offensive line some fits. The Rams will also have the rest advantage in this matchup as their previous game was last Thursday night.
This is a great spot to fade the Jets coming off their first win since Week 9 and back a motivated Rams team. Los Angeles is finally getting healthy at the right time and is looking to keep pace with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West race.
Who else but Kyren Williams for the @RamsNFL TD!
📺: #BUFvsLAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/5LneNYPFIo— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
I make this line closer to 5.5 in my rankings and trust the team of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford more than Aaron Rodgers and Jeff Ulbrich.
Pick: Rams -3 (-115) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Bengals have won two games in a row as they cling to their playoff hopes. Cleveland has made another switch at quarterback and is starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week. It’s a curious decision as we’ve seen Thompson-Robinson look completely incapable of commanding an NFL offense the few times he’s played. Jameis Winston does give opposing teams as good of a chance to win as his team, but it’s hard to believe Cleveland is better off with Thompson-Robinson under center.
Cincinnati does have a major liability on the defensive side of the ball, but its offense is the trump card in this matchup. My numbers make this game less than a touchdown even with the switch to Thompson-Robinson. However, Cleveland’s quarterback decision looks more like a case of a team mailing it in for a better draft position than one that is trying to win games. With that said, I will back a Bengals team that’s trying to backdoor their way into the playoffs.
Pick: Bengals -7.5 (-105) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit
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