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To those of you who celebrate, Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy the time with family and eat plenty of good food! Now, on to business. Week 12 was kind to us as we posted a 2-0 week for +2 units. The Dolphins easily covered against the New England Patriots, while Lamar Jackson and the Ravens took care of business Monday night against the Chargers.
This week, we’re backing two small favorites to get the job done. They are both full-unit plays, so my confidence level in each game is very high. Here’s hoping for another week where we finish in the black.
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Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati is better than its 4-7 record suggests, but the reality is that it is not playing winning football right now. Fresh off their bye, the Bengals draw a date against the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Bengals have struggled, but they are not far behind Pittsburgh in terms of overall team DVOA. Per FTN Fantasy, Pittsburgh is 15th in total DVOA, while the Bengals sit 17th. This suggests the gap between these two teams is not as far as their records say.
Pittsburgh has an edge on the defensive side of the ball. However, the Cincinnati offense has been rolling as of late, and the Steelers defense showed some cracks last Thursday against the Cleveland Browns.
TAKES IT HIMSELF#PITvsCLE on @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/DaiDcUOc1H
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 22, 2024
If Jameis Winston can have success against this defense in a snowstorm, then we’d have to think Joe Burrow will also have success. This game has sneaky shootout potential, as it currently has the fifth-highest projected total on the card this week. We could see plenty of points. If that’s the case, I will ride the team with the better offense.
In a game the Bengals absolutely must have, I expect Burrow and crew to end their skid and hand Pittsburgh their second straight loss.
Pick: Bengals -2.5 (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1 Unit
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Saints have been a nice story under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. They’ve won two straight games since he took over, but don’t let that fool you. This Saints team isn’t very good, and their defense is a major liability. They allowed 440+ yards in both of those victories, and their defense will certainly have trouble slowing down a potent Rams offense.
Los Angeles is fresh off a Sunday night loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and it will look to bounce back to keep pace in the NFC West. The Rams defense has struggled at times this year, but look for Jared Verse and the Los Angeles front to have success against the Saints offensive line and give Derek Carr some fits.
This is a great spot to buy the Rams following a poor performance in prime time and simultaneously sell the Saints. I am backing Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford to get the job done against a highly suspect New Orleans defense.
Pick: Rams -2.5 (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
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