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Well, Week 11 turned out to be another week where we were just treading water. We nailed our Chargers moneyline pick as they got the job done against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the Cleveland Browns let us down as they were destroyed by the New Orleans Saints. We dropped 1.02 units on that play and broke even last week as a result.
I sound like a broken record here, but the most frustrating part about that Browns loss was that we got a full three points of CLV (closing line value). Typically, this is what we want, but it just hasn’t panned out for us in this space so far this year. The market has just been plain wrong in its assessment of certain teams. Time to adjust and move forward. We’re backing a couple of favorites to bring us home some cash this week.
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Miami Dolphins (-7) vs. New England Patriots
Miami finds itself back in playoff contention following back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders.
Tua to Tyreek connection is back!
📺: #LVvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/g5FQZDoNfj— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024
This week, the Dolphins have a showdown against the division-rival New England Patriots. New England has shown more life with rookie Drake Maye leading the offense, but this is still a flawed team. Per FTN Fantasy, Miami ranks higher than New England in total team, offensive, and defensive DVOA.
They have superior weapons on offense, are better in the trenches, and their defense has played much better of late. Miami is also much better when playing against lesser opponents. This all sets up nicely for another Dolphins win. In my rankings, I make this line closer to 8.5 and expect Miami to handle business and pick up its third straight victory.
Pick: Dolphins -7 (-120) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.20 Units to Win 1 Unit
Los Angeles Chargers (+3) vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Chargers cashed a ticket for us last Sunday night, but this week, we are going in the other direction. While Los Angeles pulled out a victory over the Bengals in Week 11, they were thoroughly outcoached and outplayed in the second half of that game. Had it not been for two missed kicks by Evan McPherson, Los Angeles might not have won.
Evan McPherson misses for a second time tonight 🫣
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/J64lL0x1X2
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 18, 2024
Baltimore is coming off another disappointing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. It is sure to be motivated to keep pace in the division following that loss. Los Angeles will likely have trouble establishing the run as Baltimore boasts one of the league’s best run defenses. The Chargers’ aerial attack should have success in this game as pass defense has been a weakness for Baltimore.
However, Baltimore owns the trump card in this matchup. Its offense will be the best unit on the field, and it should have success moving the football. If the Chargers defense can’t slow down Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and crew, then they could have trouble keeping pace.
This is a prime spot to fade the Chargers after an emotional last-second victory and back the Ravens following a tough loss. Expect Baltimore to get back in the win column and cover this number.
Pick: Ravens -3 (+100) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
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