RADIO
Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2024 BMW Championship. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets. Where are the best bets this week?
Fifty golfers head to the mile high mountains with expectations of some of them higher than the white crested peaks of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Only thirty golfers will advance to the Tour Championship next week, FedEx Cup points leaving a very good chance of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele sitting at -10 and -8 before a shot gets hit next week.
We are going to be playing a golf course that is 8,100 yards long, but at altitude will see the ball fly 10% further, shortening the course substantially. However, the nature of this course forces multiple layups off the tee and all of the Par 3s are 200+ yards long, making this a week where I am projecting a lot of shots from 175+ yards. We are looking for good drivers of the ball who can make the birdie putts the long irons afford them.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of last Week
Another week, another donation to the outright betting market. Our placements basically broke even (-$0.77) while the outright bets continue to lay around on the couch hoping to get an A on the team project that the top-5, top-10 and top-20 markets are doing all the hard work on.
🍻Congrats to ALL the Hideki bettors! It was his best putting performance of his last 129 tournaments and the first time he gained 8+ strokes putting.
💰Breaking $100 @FedExChamp -$15.77
Outrights -$10 (I hate it here)
Placements -$0.77
✅Scheffler T5 -125 +$18.52
✅Xander… https://t.co/ZJfqd7oWtB pic.twitter.com/FPmLvpPqay— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) August 18, 2024
I have been selling myself short on the outright side of things lately, because I am EXTREMELY frustrated with this market once again. We have had a golfer finish 2nd NINE times this year. Without any close calls lately, those early-year runner ups are really starting to sting as we have lost -$209 betting outrights this year.
Let's look at the silver lining here, though. We have been CRUSHING the placement market this year, up $231 in that market which has kept us right around neutral profitability for the year. I would give up a lot to have had Benny An make that 4-footer in Hawaii or for Akshay to have not 3-putted on the 72nd hole in Detroit or for Chris Kirk to not produce one of the most flawless final rounds while holding the lead ahead of Sahith. But it is a new week and we are looking for a new golfer to hit an outright on.
Scottie Scheffler has broken our hearts in the outright market multiple times, but betting him T5 and T10 has profited $129.38, a 48% Return on Investment (ROI on $251 invested). His consistency in these high-end markets has been incredible and we are thankful for his services to our campaign. Hopefully we can win $26 this week to get ourselves back into the green for the year.
Outrights $10
Viktor Hovland $2.16 x2 +2000
Well, well, it looks like Viktor Hovland is back from his journey of befriending aliens and new swing coaches alike. Despite some really lack luster performances from the Norwegian, only Scottie Scheffler has driven the ball better than Hovland lately. In his last three rounds at TPC Southwind last week Hovland gained an average of +2.2 strokes on approach which may be good enough to rival Scheffler if this turns into an approach intensive venue.
This golf course has a lot of cross over between Augusta, Valhalla, Olympia Fields and touches of Kapalua. Hovland finished third at Valhalla earlier this year, his best finish of the season prior to last week's T2. If Vegas odds are correct at predicting the winning score of -23 this week, there will not be tons of chipping from those at the top of the leaderboard. Hovland needs to lean on his RotoBaller Striking in a big way this week to get himself across the line. He has gained the 5th most total strokes when removing his ARG (last) from his SG Total (23rd) metrics. It is not often a golfer grades out as the worst in the field for a core metric yet is priced +2000. If the aliens can abduct the ARG game this week and guide Viktor to a win, we will take it!
Yea, we're not kidding. 😂
Full story: https://t.co/OnDvWoCWa4 pic.twitter.com/SBViBAWpCe
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) July 15, 2024
Wyndham Clark $1.23 X2 +3500
After Spencer has cashed in on two of Wyndham Clark's wins lately, we have decided to be on him for all of his runner up finishes and disastrous rounds. This week is going to be different. Clark finds himself in his home state of Colorado and playing on a course he has played countless times in his lifetime. Clark's resume took a massive hit with his really bad form after his second consecutive runner up finish to Scheffler at the PLAYERS in March. Outside of his T3 at the RBC Heritage his best finish in the seven other starts in that stretch was a T31. However, four of his last five starts have been T7, T14, T10, T9.
Clark appears to be back in form, with all areas of his game producing positive gains in those high-end finishes. In his last two starts at Le Golf National and TPC Southwind, he was 6% and 7% more accurate than the field at two venues that have some watery hazards all around the course, like we will see this week again. The magic maker is going to be his putter as he gained 7+ strokes putting in all three of his wins with the rest of his game playing a supporting role. Clark's putter in the last 16 rounds has gained a stroke per round, with his T10 in Scotland gaining that magical 7 strokes we are hoping to see peak in the majestic mountains of Colorado.
Billy Horschel $1.06 X2 +4000
If we look at Horschel's form from a mile high, it is not great, but if we maintain our altitude and let the Rocky Mountains organically zoom in on his recent form over the last 16 rounds, Billy Boy has gained the 7th most total strokes on this 50-man field. He is priced at 40-1 which is a little steep for Horschel's long-term form, but considering there are only 50 golfers in this field and the fact that he has a runner up at the Open, T7 at the Wyndham and a T10 at the St. Jude last week, we are willing block our nose on the number and hope that Horschel can get his motor mouth to the top of Castle Pines' mountains for us.
What is most enticing about Horschel is the fact that he has gained the sixth most strokes tee to green (L16) with his putter hanging out in the Scottie Scheffler range (25th). Horschel has historically been an exceptionally good putter, which we have seen in his last three starts, gaining at least two strokes putting in each 18-hole stroll.
Will Zalatoris $0.54 X2 +8000
If we are trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Viktor Hovland, we are grabbing the Willy Z tin foil catsuit, pitchfork, jam jar and running like Jon Snow into the eye of the storm to hopefully capture his second win on the PGA tour without a top-10 in any of his last dozen starts. However, in his last three starts he has gained in all three areas of tee-to-green stats while the putter left the Sedgefield Red Wedding and gained just shy of two strokes putting at TPC Southwind last week, gaining across the board for the first time since his T2 at the Genesis Invitational back in February.
If long irons and ball striking are going to play a major role here, that is what Zalatoris does best. I do fear that scores may get a little to low for Will, but on the off chance the winning score lands up in the mid-teens, this golf course will reward the skillset that Zalatoris has shown us at multiple majors in the past, particularly Augusta where he has career finishes of T9, T6 and 2nd. At +8000 we are getting a really large number on a golfer who has been making some large numbers this year, but that tinfoil catsuit is going to work its magic for us this week ... I hope.
Placings ($76.50)
We are going low volume, high probability this week with all three of our placement bets in the 60% implied probability range. However, our numbers suggest they should be well into the 70% range with edges of 9% or better for all three bets.
These are placement bets for the week, with some of them finding themselves on our outright card too.
Scottie Scheffler T5 $ 22.50 -150
Xander Schauffele T10 $30 -200
Tony Finau T20 $24 -160
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
With no 3-balls to parlay together, we are going to take some stabs at the first round leader market again betting $1 on each of the following 5 golfers at Bet Rivers.
- Max Greyserman +5000
- Taylor Pendrith +5500
- Cam Davis +6600
- Eric Cole +6600
- Thomas Detry +6600
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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