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Well, the Divisional Round wasn’t exactly what we were hoping for. We went 1-2 and finished down .38 units.
Championship Sunday is here. We’ve only got three games left in the NFL season. It's hard to believe it’s gone by this fast, but here we are. We’ve got two more picks this week. So, let’s do our best to head into Super Bowl LIX on a winning note.
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Philadelphia Eagles (-6) vs. Washington Commanders
We get an NFC East showdown in our first game of the weekend. These teams split the season series at 1-1, but it’s important to note that Jalen Hurts missed the majority of Philadelphia’s Week 16 loss to the Commanders with a concussion.
Hurts enters this game banged up and nursing a knee injury, but Philadelphia can lean on star running back Saquon Barkley. Washington ranks 26th in defensive rushing DVOA, per FTN Fantasy, and it allows over 137 rushing yards per game. This sets up nicely for another big outing from Barkley.
The definition of electric⚡️@saquon
📺: #LARvsPHI on NBC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/25wqGdgYjX— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2025
In my rankings, I make Philadelphia closer to seven-point favorites. I got this line when it was still Eagles -4.5 but believe most of the value is now gone. I am still comfortable betting this game at the current number but not for a full unit.
Philadelphia is just the better team, and Washington’s storybook run likely comes to an end here. Expect the Eagles to take care of business and advance to their second Super Bowl in the last three seasons.
Pick: Eagles -6 (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .33 Units to Win .3 Units
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs will have to stop a red-hot Josh Allen if they want a chance to win their third straight Super Bowl. Kansas City fell to Buffalo 30-21 in the regular season and it’ll be looking for revenge this week.
The local radio call by @ChrisBrownBills & @EWood70 of Josh Allen’s huge play vs. the Chiefs. Go Bills! pic.twitter.com/HAAsbJwr9H
— dan o 🦬 (@dano_bills) November 18, 2024
I do make Kansas City about -4.5 favorites in this spot and believe its offense will be the difference in this game. A healthy Marquise Brown and an improved Xavier Worthy will open up the middle of the field for Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce and could be the difference in this game.
This is a tough one to call as these teams are very evenly matched. However, it’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at Arrowhead Stadium.
Pick: Chiefs Moneyline (-125) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .25 Units to Win .2 Units
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