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Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 13 NFL games on 12/5/21. His free picks against the spread, moneyline bets and NFL player prop.
Hey there, RotoBallers! Thunder Dan here and I am filling in for my good friend, Steve Janik this week with your NFL betting picks for Week 13. Steve wasn't able to do his usual picks and predictions in Week 12 and has to sit out this week due to a series of events in his personal life that are making things difficult to be able to write. To recap, here is Steve's record so far this season.
- 2021 Season: 15-21 (42%, -6.8u)
- Spread: 7-6, +.2u
- Total/Team Total: 6-10, -4.5u
- Moneyline: 0-3, -2.3u
- Props: 2-2, -.2u
If you follow me, you know I do NBA betting content 3-4 times a week, but I also bet on the NFL, too! Let's keep Steve's disclaimer about his picks and betting in general as well and I can certainly echo his sentiments. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. Please be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there are so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
In this article, I will be giving you my betting picks for Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season. Steve will be back next week with his picks and you can continue to follow him at RotoBaller all season long and you can find him on Twitter @stevejanik6 where he will occasionally add plays to my season record. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Betting Picks - Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday 12/5, 1 PM EST | O/U: 50.5
The Bucs earned a hard-fought victory over the Colts in Week 12, giving them back-to-back wins following shocking, consecutive losses to Washington and New Orleans. However, this win over Indy brought back one key stat that the offense hasn't hit since Week 7, and that's over 100 rushing yards. Leonard Fournette had a major breakout game with four scores, thus making life easy on Tom Brady. Overall, this offense is still deadly, averaging over 344 yards and 29 points per game over the L3. One odd mark is the five turnovers in that stretch, but the defense has made up for it with their nine takeaways.
Out of all the bad teams in the NFL this year, the Falcons could be the most dysfunctional. I'm pretty sure Matt Ryan has no interest in playing out the rest of the season, just based on his stable of pass-catchers. The offense is run solely through Cordarelle Patterson and in most cases this year, it has proven to be effective. In four of Atlanta's five wins, Patterson has eclipsed 100 totals offensive yards. Defensively, they're equally a wreck, allowing over 360 yards per game and 27 points per game this year. Although they have forced nine turnovers in their last seven games.
I'm targeting the over here, despite it being a pretty high total. I look for Tampa Bay to get out to a big, early lead behind Brady and a passing game that is due. They'll cruise through the majority of the game but I do think we get some glorious garbage time touchdowns here late from Ryan and the Falcons offense.
Pick: Over 50.5 (-115, DK Sportsbook) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 11/21, 1 PM EST | O/U: 43.5
This line has been moving steadily towards the Cardinals all week, but frankly, it's still not a big enough spread in my opinion. I have little to no respect for the Bears after watching them play poorly pretty much all season regardless of who has been playing quarterback. Chicago barely squeaked out a win against the lowly Lions on Thanksgiving and had dropped five straight games before that.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals managed to go 2-1 without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins and are expected to get both of them back in the lineup for this game. They are also coming off a bye and should be fresh. When healthy, this team was 7-0 and should have beaten the Packers if not for Kyler throwing a bad pick in the end zone on the final drive. Arizona is also 8-3 ATS on the year and 6-0 ATS on the road.
I'll back the much better team here, even on the road. It's too bad it's up over a touchdown now, but I think the Cards could easily blow out the Bears even on the road. Give me Arizona all day.
Pick: Arizona -7.5 (-105, DK Sportsbook) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 11/21, 1 PM EST | O/U: 46.5
It's honestly never a good feeling betting on the Lions. I remember backing them with the points against the Eagles and then watching them get destroyed by Philadelphia in that game when I thought they would hang. They've been a hard team to predict this year, but I think it's safe to say that they're probably better than their winless record suggests.
Detroit has a few things working in their favor this week. Yes, they are without their best offensive player in DeAndre Swift, but they have a few extra days of rest and are playing at home here. The Lions have been surprisingly good this year ATS with a 7-4 record despite not having an actual win. They're also facing a Minnesota team that is without Dalvin Cook and sports one of the lowest margins of victory of teams with five wins or more with a measly half-point advantage.
It took a last-minute field goal for Minnesota to beat Detroit earlier this year at home. I think the Lions will battle here and put up some points on this Vikings defense. As long as they keep it within a touchdown, we win. Give me Detroit (gulp) with the points.
Pick: Lions +7.5 (-115 FD Sportsbook, 1 unit)
NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Washington Football Team (+1) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 11/21, 4 PM EST | O/U: 49
This line has moved towards Washington and I am struggling to figure out why. The Raiders pass the eye test for me as far as being a pretty decent team, though they obviously have their flaws on defense. And I understand they are likely missing their best pass-catcher in Darren Waller here, too.
The Raiders have had some extra rest since pulling off an upset of the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. That win ended a three-game slide and I was really impressed with what Carr and the Vegas offense did in that one. The Football Team is riding a three-game win streak but has been winning ugly. I'm really just not sold on them turning things around entirely and I think their defense is really going to have their hands full this week with Carr and the Vegas aerial attack - especially with Landon Collins now out in the secondary.
This just feels like a good spot for Vegas at home. Washington's secondary is one of the worst in the league and Vegas has a much more talented and consistent offense than Washington, which can struggle to score at times. Give me the Raiders at home, even if it feels gross.
Pick: Raiders -1 (-110 DK Sportsbook, 1 unit)
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