Free NFL Betting Picks - Super Bowl Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Spread

We've finally reached the big one. The king kahuna. The Super Bowl. It's scary how fast this season has gone and while it was certainly a turbulent year for many reasons, I'm already looking forward to next season. I go into the final game with a 5-1 playoff record, and while I won't be able to get back to .500 on the season, ending the year on this nice run gave me a little pep in my step. I'll be providing my favorite spread bet as well as a bonus prop that I love. Good luck this weekend and may all your bets hit!

• 2021 Season: 18-26-1 (40%, -9.8u)
  • Spread: 8-6, +1.2u
  • Total/Team Total:  8-13-1, -5.5u
  • Moneyline: 0-5, -4.3u
  • Props: 2-2, -.2u

I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there are so many different books trying to get your business.

I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Super Bowl LVI. It's been a very fun season, despite the tough gambling record. I hope, one way or the other, I was able to help someone win money along the way. It's important to remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

NFL Betting Picks - Spread

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)

Sunday 2/13, 6:30 PM EST | O/U: 48.5

Admittedly, I haven't been aboard the Bengals bandwagon during the playoffs. Not that I don't think they're insanely talented, they just had an interesting road to this point. Even in the AFC Championship game, they were benefactors of a poorly-performing Patrick Mahomes, and they were able to surmount a 21-3 deficit only to win in overtime. Joe Burrow did a great job spreading the ball around, finding Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins for scores, with Higgins also crossing the century yardage mark. However, Burrow still had 15 incompletions so he'll need to work on his efficiency, especially against this brutal Rams pass rush. The run game had their best showing, carving out 116 yards, including 88 from Joe Mixon. But again, this Rams defense is no joke. On the Bengals' side, the defense stepped up when they need to in the conference championship. The first half was a bit of a mess, but in the second half, they looked different. Putting pressure on Mahomes and slowing down the run game enough that they forced 39 passes out of the Chiefs. Their two interceptions were key in their eventual victory and they'll have a great spot to do the same against a sometimes mistake-prone Matthew Stafford.

I may be wrong but it seemed like the public was all over the 49ers heading into the NFC Championship game, and with a final score of 20-17, they weren't far off. However, in my headspace, the Rams were the better team and there is a clear reason why they are in the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford is finally getting his shot at a championship. The veteran gunslinger has done just that this season and with weapons like Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr., it's no surprise it was one of his best statistical seasons. Although, the gunslinging has its downsides, and this year it was him throwing 17 interceptions, tying the third-most in a season of his career. Ways to assist this is to establish the run but I still think Cam Akers is struggling to get his "game" going after an otherworldly fast return from a torn Achilles. He's yet to find the end zone and is averaging just three yards per carry during the playoffs. Defensively, Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey speak for themselves but this entire unit is scary good. Through the playoffs, they have five takeaways and have allowed an average of just 275 yards per game, which is heavily inflated thanks to the Tampa Bay game two weeks ago.

After not being attached to Cincy throughout the playoffs and being invested in the Rams, I'm zigging instead of zagging and rolling with Cincinnati to cover. I do have money sprinkled on them to win as well, but this is too good a number. I actually took this at +4 but it has since jumped up to 4.5 points, depending on the sportsbook you favor (although I highly suggest having multiple books open to shop the best odds).

Pick: Cincinnati +4.5 (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit

Bonus Pick - Coin Toss Prop

Heads: -105 | Tails -105

Honestly, one of the best things about betting the Super Bowl is betting on things other than outcomes during the game. Between how long the national anthem will go to what color Gatorade the champion will dump on their coach, there are some exciting, albeit fun things to gamble on.

For me, there's no better way to set the table for the big game than betting on the outcome of the coin toss. Of course, you don't want to go overboard on the size of your wager, just something fun to look forward to. In this situation, the old adage is "tails never fails." Unless of course it does. Whether it be on the old NCAA Football series or a random coin toss between my buddies, I am rolling with heads every time.

I always love a little statistical backup, especially in this totally 100% random situation.

Pick: Coin toss result = Heads (-105, BetMGM) Bet .5 Unit

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