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We've seen eighteen weeks of NFL football. In theory, we should know who the best teams are, what their strengths and weaknesses are, and how they match up. But it's never that easy, is it?
The Bills are the best team in the league if you look at their NFELO ranking, and the Ravens are only No. 11. But the Ravens look unstoppable, and they've been crushing other Super Bowl contenders like the Dolphins and 49ers in recent weeks. Are you going to rely on the black box metric, or are you going to rely on what you see with your eyes?
That's what makes football fun. Every team brings something different every game. What are they going to bring this week? Who will win on Wild Card Weekend?
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Wild Card Round NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions (DET -3 / DET -168)
Sunday, 8:00 pm | O/U: 51.5
Screw it, I'm picking the over in the game with the highest projected score of the week. The Detroit Lions, the No. 2 passing offense in the league, host the Los Angeles Rams, the No. 10 passing offense. Matthew "stat-padding" Stafford returns to Detroit and brings with him the triple crown-winning Cooper Kupp and the rookie record-breaking Puka Nacua.
Both the Rams and Lions are considerably stronger on offense than they are on defense. They can move the ball quickly through the air and on the ground. The Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Rams' Nacua rank third and fourth in receiving yards respectively.
The Lions have scored about ten more points in their dome at home than they do on the road over the past two seasons. Six of the past seven Rams games have finished over the Vegas total, as have seven of the past nine Lions games.
Fifty-one point-five is the highest total for the Rams all season and the second-highest total for the Lions. They've been involved in games that went over 51.5 with lower totals. The Rams have scored over 40 by themselves three times. It might be risky, but let's have some fun!
Pick: Over 51.5 (-110)
Wild Card Round NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans (HOU +2.5 / HOU ML +121)
Saturday, 4:30 pm | O/U: 44.5
Picking the Bills to beat the Steelers, who will once again be starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback, would be too easy, but it also wouldn't be profitable in expected value. With Buffalo being a ten-point favorite with odds at -530, that implies that they have about an 84% chance of winning, and it would only net a profit of less than $19 on a $100 bet.
Instead, I'm picking the Texans to get revenge on the Browns at home. The Browns already beat the Texans 36-22 in Houston in Week 16, but C.J. Stroud missed that game. Texans' starter Case Keenum played so poorly--throwing two interceptions on 17 attempts and getting sacked three times--that they benched him for Davis Mills, who still struggled but at least protected the football. Now Stroud is back, and, worryingly for the Browns, Myles Garrett isn't practicing.
The Browns' star pass rusher and Defensive Player of the Year candidate hasn't been playing like his usual self since he aggravated a shoulder injury against the Broncos and continued playing through it. He has only made a single sack since the Broncos game, and he was prevented from hitting the quarterback even once in four of his past six games.
The Browns haven't been tested in about four weeks. Their past four games were against the Bears, the Texans' backup quarterbacks, the Jets' Trevor Siemian, and their Week 18 loss to the Bengals in which they rested everybody. Before that, they had lost two of their previous three competitive games. The Texans are ready to play. Every game down the stretch has been a battle with playoff implications.
Pick: Texans ML (+121)
Wild Card Round NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC ML -226 / KC -4.5)
Saturday, 8:00 pm
Question: Is Tyreek Hill (ankle) practicing? Answer: Yes. Limited practice, though it may be, he'll be ready to go in his former home against his former team. Their offense couldn't move the ball at the end of the pathetic loss to the Titans with Hill missing most of the final few drives. Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De'Von Achane are also practicing.
https://t.co/cdfWqLO5FS
Hill promised a revenge game in Arrowhead this offseason, but he never got the chance to cash that check with the NFL putting the game in Germany. Now let's see it happen!
The Dolphins have been falling apart at the end of the season. They lost three of the last five, including a 56-19 drubbing against the Ravens, and their only wins were a shutout of the Jets and a two-point win over the Cowboys. But the Chiefs haven't looked much better. They've lost four of the last eight, and their past two wins (and one loss) were against teams with injured starting quarterbacks.
The Dolphins will stay within four points of the Chiefs and likely win.
Pick: Dolphins +4.5 (-110)
Recap
Week 18: 0-1 on Moneyline, 1-0 Against the Spread, 0-1 on Over/Under Picks
Final Season-long Record: 7-9 on Moneyline, 9-15 Against the Spread, 11-7 on Over/Under Picks
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