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The big day is finally here! After 128 days, it’s officially time to dance with an entire NCAA tournament field set. It’s always exciting to get back into the madness, and we are already off to a wild start with these first couple of play-in games.
Running through some games in the first round, there is much to consider. Favorites taking care of business, upset potential, and over/unders are the beautiful aspects of what makes the NCAA Tournament sport's most chaotic event. Many of these matchups are unfamiliar, presenting exciting and new elements for each team.
In this article, you can find some of my favorite picks for round one of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 21st, and Friday, March 22nd, 2024. Make sure also to check out our other NCAA/NIT Tournament articles, as we will be offering picks and DFS suggestions throughout the tournament. Find me on Twitter @JustinPottinger. Let's dive in!
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Dayton Flyers (7) vs Nevada Wolfpack (10)
4:30 PM ET (TBS)
Line: Nevada -1.5 vs. Dayton
Despite being three seeds behind, Nevada enters this game as a slight 1.5-point favorite. The Wolfpack had a major bounce-back season, finishing with a 26-7 record through the conference tournaments, including winning 10 of their last 12 games. The Mountain West conference was underrated this season, but the committee showed their love as six teams were welcomed into the big dance this year.
The Flyers also had a successful regular season after ending the conference tournament with a 24-7 record and finished third in the A10 conference with a 14-4 record. The defense has been a critical factor for the Flyers this season, as they have allowed just an average of 66.3 points per game, ranking 88th in efficiency. Dayton, however, has put on an offensive display as they rank 18th in offensive efficiency according to KenPom and lean on superb scorer DaRon Holmes II as he is averaging 20.4 points per game this season.
In a game that could come down to the last few possessions, I want the guard duo of Jared Lucas and Kenan Blackshear to lead the Wolfpack to a round-one victory. In a mini upset, Nevada advances to the round of 32.
The Pick: Nevada ML -120 (ESPN Bet)
Washington State Cougars (7) vs Drake Bulldogs (10)
10:05 PM ET (truTV)
Line: Drake -1.5 vs. Wazzu
Another exciting line this week is the Drake Bulldogs being listed as -1.5 favorites over the Washington State Cougars despite the teams' three-seed difference. Many believe that even though Drake had an excellent season, they still needed to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, and they did. Drake finished the conference tournament with a record of 28-6 and finished second in the MVC with a 16-4 record. Drake emphasized turnovers and offensive production this season as the Bulldogs finished 14th in the country in turnover percentage and 27th in effective field goal percentage, according to KenPom. Drake’s ability to secure rebounds could be the difference in this game, as they rank 1st in the nation when it comes to preventing offensive rebounds.
Washington State surprised many by having a very successful regular season. They finished 24-9 and were second in the Pac-12 with a 14-6 conference record. Washington State is one of the more defensively sound teams in the nation, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency and allowing 66.9 points per game to opposing offenses. The Cougars lean on forward Isaac Jones, averaging 15.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game this season.
In a game that could come down to offensive efficiency, I see the Drake Bulldogs winning round one, led by Tucker DeVries, a walking bucket and one of the more unguardable players in the MVC. In a mini upset, Drake advances to the round of 32.
The Pick: Drake ML -120 (ESPN Bet)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (5) vs Grand Canyon Lopes (12)
10:05 PM ET (truTV)
Line: Saint Mary’s -5.5 vs. GC
Saint Mary’s and Grand Canyon were two of the best offensive-rebounding teams in college basketball this season. Kenpom has the Gaels third and the Lopes 30th in offensive rebound percentage this season. Saint Mary’s, as expected, is favored by 5.5 points, a line many people didn’t expect to get so close. The Gaels turned their season around after losing five of their first eight games to end the conference tournament with a 26-7 record. Saint Mary’s play style is much more different than Grand Canyon’s, as the Gaels love to slow down the pace of play and settle into their offensive plays. As for Grand Canyon, they also tend to slow the game down, but this team will depend on their transition and supply a high-tempo offense against a brilliant team like Saint Mary's.
Grand Canyon was excellent this season after finishing first in the WAC and currently holds a record of 29-4 after the conference tournament. The Lopes had a significant win over San Diego State earlier in the season, but there isn’t much to discuss when looking at their resume outside of that game. Grand Canyon has been led by Tyon Grant-Foster, who has averaged 19.8 points per game while shooting 44.8 percent from the field this season.
This has all the makings of an exciting first-round March Madness game, and it should be fun to spectate. As mentioned earlier, Grant-Foster will be the best player on the court, and it will take some outstanding team defense from Saint Mary’s to slow him down. Saint Mary’s may come out on top, but Grand Canyon can cover and possibly force a round-one upset over the Gaels.
The Pick: Grand Canyon +5.5 (ESPN Bet)
Auburn Tigers (4) vs Yale Bulldogs (13)
4:30 PM ET (TBS)
Line: Auburn -12.5 vs. Yale
Unlike the other matchups mentioned, this game will likely not be as close, but it certainly has value in becoming a winning ticket this week. In this first-round contest, the Auburn Tigers are favored by -12.5 points against the Yale Bulldogs. Both teams are coming off winning their conference tournament and now have to battle against each other in the round of 64. Auburn had an excellent regular season after finishing with a 27-7 record and second in the SEC with a conference record of 13-5. Yale also had an impressive regular season as the Bulldogs finished with a record of 22-9 while finishing third in the Ivey League.
Many believe that Auburn could be a Final Four team, and I agree with that potential. The Tigers are a much better team than the Bulldogs, and the flashy offense that Auburn holds could easily pill up on Yale. Auburn has incredible depth and is led by star forward Johni Broome, averaging 16.2 points per game this season. Auburn should be able to capitalize on every aspect of the game against Yale, and this matchup could easily be over by halftime. If Yale showed struggles last week against Brown, an under .500 team, I don’t think they will be able to keep up with Auburn.
The Pick: Auburn -12.5 (ESPN Bet)
lucky no. 7️⃣#WarEagle | @AP_Top25 pic.twitter.com/1u4WP9JpJJ
— Auburn Basketball (@AuburnMBB) March 18, 2024
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