RADIO
As we move into game two in each of the conference semifinals, I have to say that I wasn't suprised by the results in game one of any of these series. The Bucks' road win on Sunday afternoon was the only true "upset" and I am still trying to figure out why they were underdogs there. Last night, the Heat dismantled the Embiid-less Sixers as expected and the Suns did their thing in a seven-point win against Dallas. The Mavericks fought valiantly and had an incredible 45-point effort from Luka Doncic and it still wasn't enough to cover as Phoenix was firing on all cylinders.
I went one whole day above .500 before being humbled again as I dropped all three prop bets and two of the three main bets from yesterday's article. The Phoenix game was higher scoring than I anticipated and Chris Paul ceded more control of the offense to Devin Booker than I expected, too. Making today's picks is messing with my head a little bit because part of me doesn't want to take the exact same bets I took on Sunday, however, I also did really well with those bets and not all that much about these teams or how they play has changed since then and the totals/spreads are nearly identical to what we saw in game one. But I guess that's what I'm here to do anyway, and why you're reading this article. So I am going to make some picks, damn it!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 58-60
- Against the Spread 24-19
- Over/Under 9-9
- Player Props 25-32
NBA Betting Picks for 5/3
Milwaukee Bucks (+4.5) @ Boston Celtics (215.5 total)
To quote Will Ferrell's character in one of my favorite dumb movies of all time Zoolander, " I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!" In what world should the Bucks be 4.5-point underdogs again in game two after what they did to Boston in game one?
Do I expect Boston to play better in game two? Yes. They really struggled to get anything going on offense, but a lot of credit should go to Milwaukee, also as they were incredibly tough in the paint and forced Boston to take more threes than they'd have liked to. But to be honest, Milwaukee didn't even play its best basketball either. Giannis shot 9-25 from the field and the Bucks had multiple chances to blow the doors off Boston entirely and win by more than the final margin of twelve points.
Milwaukee's size is going to be an issue for Boston to match up with and we saw Giannis, Portis, and Lopez all grab double-digit rebounds. Jrue Holiday can guard Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown and continue to pester them into bad shots. Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton were quietly very good off the bench, combining to sink 5-10 threes and score 19 points. I'm just not sure how Boston can get it done in this series and the game one results only further strengthen my original stance that Milwaukee is simply too talented and deep for Boston to overcome.
I'm going to double-down on my Bucks' picks from game one and bet both the spread and money line here. I think Milwaukee wins again and that this is the last time you'll be able to bet them as underdogs in this series. I have no problem putting money on Giannis and his supporting cast to get it done, especially after watching Boston struggle as they did in game one.
The Pick: Bucks +4.5 (-110), Bucks ML (+160)
Golden State Warriors (-2) @ Memphis Grizzlies (227.5 total)
The Grizzlies had a great shot to steal game one of this series and just couldn't do it. Ja Morant had a look in the final seconds to try to win the game but was unable to make another tough, contested shot and the Warriors held onto a one-point win.
The good news for Memphis is that they showed that they can compete in this series and they even led for several stretches of game one. As I expected there wasn't any backing down from Memphis and their young core came up big time and time again in what was the best game of the first four of the second round.
The bad news is that despite 34 points from their star player Ja Morant, 33 points from Jaren Jackson Jr. (easily his best game of the postseason), and the Warriors being without Draymond Green for the entire second half due to his ejection they still came up short.
Playing the Warriors has to be so frustrating. I've watched this team all season and it's been their MO really for the entire Curry-Draymond-Thompson era. You simply can't pull away from this team. Every time you think you're building a lead, they eat into it. Every time you think you have the momentum, they come down and make a few big threes and flip the scoreboard.
Steve Kerr has too many toys to play with here, and I'm not talking about Curry, Wiggins, Thompson, Green, or Poole. He started Gary Payton II so he could harass Morant. He gave Jonathan Kuminga minutes in the second half and he played well. He has Otto Porter at his disposal for small-ball lineups and he didn't even dust off Nemanja Bjelica in game one yet to play some small-ball center.
My prediction was the Warriors in six or seven games, and I am sticking to that. But for tonight, I'm back on Golden State as I think they'll find a way to win again. They took Memphis' best shot and still beat them on the road, I think they probably cover this spread tonight and it was fluky that they didn't cover in game one with Klay Thompson missing free throws. But just for extra safety, I'll play their money line at -130 in case it comes down to the last possession again.
The Pick: Warriors ML (-130)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Andrew Wiggins over 14.5 points (-120): Wiggins had 17 points in game one and is going to get a lot of run at the four in this series when the Warriors go small. With so much attention paid to the Golden State shooters, Wiggins should continue to be able to get his as Memphis has been notoriously bad at defending wings this season.
Brook Lopez over 4.5 rebounds (-135): Lopez had a postseason-best 10 boards in game one and has five or more in all but one game this postseason. It was great seeing him play 28 minutes in game one and I think Milwaukee will continue to play big lineups in this series.
Ja Morant over 7.5 rebounds (-140): You know we have been riding this prop, but if ain't broke then don't fix it. Morant continues to be aggressive on the boards and is going to have a lot of rebounding opportunities.
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 6.5 assists (-120): Giannis had 12 dimes in game one! I don't want to overreact too much to one game, but that's a huge increase from his season average. Boston is going to double him and swarm him in the paint and I expect him to continue to look for open teammates, giving him a lot of assist potential here. He has seven or more assists this postseason in four of Milwaukee's six games.
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